Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Clearing skies and warming temperatures will start the workweek. A
cold front will push through Tuesday resulting in cooler
temperatures for the middle of the week. Dry weather will prevail
for the end of the week with temperatures returning to above
normal. Rain chances return for the weekend, mainly on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Lingering low clouds bisect the Mid-South this morning. Patchy
fog/freezing fog has developed invof bodies of water mainly
across parts of north MS especially around Oxford and Sardis/Enid
Lakes. Be careful if you encounter fog this morning. It could
create a slick bridge deck. Temps are in the upper 20s and lower
30s where skies are clear and in the mid to upper 30s under the
cloud deck that covers most of West TN and parts of NE MS.

Clouds are filling back across the Memphis metro and parts of
north MS this morning as northerly low level winds advect clouds
south. Low clouds will gradually clear the area through the day as
high pressure builds into the region with sunshine returning with
highs in the 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will slide SE of the
area tonight with southerly winds developing across the Delta.
Colder temps tonight will be toward the TN River and NE MS where
winds will still decouple.

A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday. Areas south
of I-40 will warm nicely with highs around 60. Cooler air moving
into areas along the KY/MO border will stunt temps there with
readings only in the lower 50s. Some models continue to show the
possibility of a few showers across NW TN and along the TN River
but these are still the outliers for now. Wednesday will be
chilly under a brisk north breeze and possibly some post frontal
low clouds. High pressure will prevail for the end of the week
with moderating temps back to above normal.

An omega block develops over the CONUS by the end of the week with
upper level high pressure over the Northern Plains and upper lows
near the Pacific NW and New England. The forecast problem is how
the energy moving out of the SW US tracks across the southern US.
Latest data indicates that the energy will be slower to eject and
perhaps Saturday can be salvaged across the Mid-South. The global
ensemble systems track an upper low across the Lower MS Valley by
Sunday with showers across the Mid-South. Some cluster analyses
indicate that the upper low could take a track a little further
south which would keep northern areas of the Mid-South a little
drier though in just about all solutions north MS is in for a
wetting rain on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to drift slowly south this
morning. South of these clouds in north MS, some patchy
fog/freezing fog has developed, but will remain west of the TUP
terminal. Clouds will gradually clear from west to east this
afternoon with generally benign wx conditions overnight. Some
outlying guidance is hinting at patchy fog/cigs again tonight, but
confidence is too low to mention at this time. Expected light
northwest winds today becoming southwest tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ007-011-020.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...MJ