Wind Advisory 6, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

173 
WWUS74 KMAF 270914
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-281200-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240228T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Guadalupe Mountains National Park,
and Pine Springs
214 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /314 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 85 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if 
possible.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ059-272>274-277-278-280300-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0009.240227T1500Z-240228T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-
Southern Lea County-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Jal, Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP,
Artesia, Lovington, Fort Davis, Van Horn, Hobbs, Eunice, Alpine,
Tatum, Pecos, and Mentone
214 AM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /314 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southeast New Mexico plains, Loving, Van Horn and Highway 
  54 Corridor, Eastern Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, Davis 
  Mountains, and Davis Mountains Foothills.

* WHEN...From 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM 
  CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Blowing dust 
  can reduce visibility suddenly to zero, especially in areas where 
  bare fields exist. Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

&&

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-060>063-067>070-075-275-276-279-280-280300-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.240227T1500Z-240228T0300Z/
Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-Chisos
Basin-
Including the cities of Snyder, Crane, Big Lake, Marfa, Big Bend
National Park, Odessa, Andrews, Stanton, Monahans, Rankin,
Panther Junction, Big Spring, Midland, Garden City, Lamesa,
Seminole, McCamey, Colorado City, Marathon, Fort Stockton, Gail,
Chisos Basin, and Kermit
314 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM 
CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

James DeBerry

582 
WWUS74 KMAF 272046
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
146 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-280500-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240228T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Queen,
and Pine Springs
146 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /246 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if 
possible.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ059-272>274-277-278-280300-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240228T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-
Southern Lea County-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Artesia, Van Horn, Fort Davis, Eunice,
Lovington, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Tatum, Alpine, Hobbs, Mentone,
Jal, Carlsbad, and Pecos
146 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /246 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast New Mexico plains, Loving, Van Horn and Highway 
  54 Corridor, Eastern Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, Davis 
  Mountains, and Davis Mountains Foothills.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Blowing dust 
  can reduce visibility suddenly to zero, especially in areas where 
  bare fields exist. Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

&&

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-060>063-067>070-075-275-276-279-280-280300-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240228T0300Z/
Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-Chisos
Basin-
Including the cities of Stanton, Seminole, Snyder, Marfa,
Colorado City, Big Lake, Crane, Garden City, Chisos Basin,
McCamey, Monahans, Big Bend National Park, Odessa, Panther
Junction, Lamesa, Kermit, Gail, Fort Stockton, Big Spring,
Midland, Rankin, Andrews, and Marathon
246 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

David Hennig

456 
WWUS74 KMAF 280309
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
809 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-280415-
/O.CAN.KMAF.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240228T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Queen,
and Pine Springs
809 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /909 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended.

$$

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ059-272>274-277-278-280415-
/O.EXP.KMAF.HW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240228T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-
Southern Lea County-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Eunice, Artesia, Tatum, Alpine, Hobbs,
Van Horn, Fort Davis, Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Mentone,
Lovington, Pecos, and Jal
809 PM MST Tue Feb 27 2024 /909 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The threat has ended.

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-060>063-067>070-075-275-276-279-280-280415-
/O.EXP.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240228T0300Z/
Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-Chisos
Basin-
Including the cities of Colorado City, Monahans, Marathon,
Stanton, Garden City, Panther Junction, Gail, Rankin, Kermit, Big
Bend National Park, Midland, Lamesa, Crane, Andrews, Big Lake,
Chisos Basin, Marfa, Snyder, Seminole, Big Spring, Odessa, Fort
Stockton, and McCamey
909 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The threat has ended.

$$

Devin Chehak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1122 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

WV imagery shows dirty ridging over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico this morning, with a fetch of high clouds streaming through
the ridge, which will play hob on temperatures and winds today
through Tuesday. MOS numbers for highs today take KMAF into the
90s as thicknesses increase. While westerly winds will increase
today, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, high
clouds will counteract this somewhat, which always seems to be the
spoiler for these parts. In addition, DESI/HREF probabilities for
KMAF hitting 90 or better this afternoon are zero. Thus, we won't
bite on the MOS numbers attm.

The NAM develops a mountain wave signature today, suggesting high
winds developing in the Guadalupes. Most model solutions keep
winds just below criteria this afternoon and overnight, but
without obs from KGDP, we'll let the warning commence this
afternoon as advertised. 700mb winds increase overnight and
through Tuesday afternoon, when 50-60kt westerlies are forecast
there. Mixing and increasing high clouds will likely yield record-
breaking warm lows overnight, and certainly the warmest this
year.

Tuesday, the aforementioned high winds will increase over the
higher elevations, and also onto the adjacent plains. Again,
increased cloud cover will be a major factor in just how much of
this materializes. Because of this, and with wind/fire wx concerns
in the shorter term, the current watch looks good for now. In
addition, the latest DESI/HREF suggests higher/warning winds will
be confined to the Guadalupes/Delawares and immediate adjacent
areas. Thicknesses come down a little, and cloud cover should
temper highs somewhat, but they should still come in well-above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Sustained winds greater than 40 mph with gusts 50 mph or greater
are likely to persist from the Guadalupe into the Davis and Glass
Mountains from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning
before winds start to decrease into midday Wednesday as the jet
streak embedded in the short wave trough moves away. Winds will
also veer from westerly to northeasterly, then to easterly, and
then southeasterly for most of the area through Wednesday evening.
Skies will remain cloudy until they start to clear from west to
east, with timing for the beginning of this clearing still progged
as Thursday afternoon or evening. Before this occurs, chances of
precipitation will be present across most of the area from
Wednesday morning into Thursday afternoon as the short wave and
associated upper air disturbances embedded in the flow continue to
move east over the Southern Great Plains even in wake of the
surface cold frontal passage Wednesday morning. Highest PoPs are
located over Culberson and Presidio into Reeves, Ward, Loving, and
Winkler Counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning. PoPs have
significantly increased since earlier runs, with thunder also
being shown in grids for portions of Presidio, Jeff Davis, Pecos,
and Brewster Counties around midnight early Thursday morning,
which was not present before. No severe risk is expected, but
trends will be monitored to see if this heavy rain/thunderstorm
area persists in later runs. A chance of snow is also indicated
over most of northern Eddy and Lea Counties in SE NM and the
northernmost Permian Basin and higher elevations of the Davis and
Glass Mountains. This chance of snow has been present for several
runs now, however as mentioned in the last AFD, ground
temperatures will likely be too warm and the sub cloud layer too
dry for much in the way of substantial accumulations more than a
trace, aside from higher elevations where a few tenths of
accumulating snow might occur. Precip totals have notably
increased for much of the area, from a few hundredths of an inch
in earlier runs to a few tenths of an inch in the latest run, and
with a local maximum located in the Davis Mountains.

Lee troughing develops each afternoon from Thursday into
Saturday, with southeasterly winds east of the lee troughing and
southwesterly winds west of the lee troughing. Mid-level ridging
also builds from Friday into Sunday. By Saturday evening, winds
become more southwesterly and clouds increase in response to the
next short wave moving north of the area. This will continue into
Sunday evening, with gusty winds indicated for most of the area,
especially the mountains and Eddy County Plains. Winds will become
more westerly and then northwesterly as a Pacific front moves
through Monday as skies again clear during the day Monday. Winds
then veer to northerly and then southeasterly from Monday evening
into Tuesday morning in response to yet another short wave moving
in from the west.

Lows Tuesday night will be above average, with 30s in northern
Lea County to 40s across the Permian Basin, and 50s and low 60s
across the Plateaus and Rio Grande, respectively. Following
Wednesday morning's cold front, highs Wednesday and Thursday will
be below average by more than 5 degrees for most locations, with
widespread 50s north and east of the Davis and Chinati Mountains,
with mostly 60s for the southeast and southern portions of the
forecast area and a few 70s near the Rio Grande. Wednesday has
trended colder in recent runs by a few degrees for much of the
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau compared to earlier runs, so
went with highs in these areas lowered to closer match NBM 10th
and 25th percentiles for highs on Wednesday. Much the same story
is present Thursday, but with warmer temperatures across SE NM
Plains and Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and much of the Marfa
Plateau, where highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Lows Wednesday
night will be near average and mostly in the 30s to low 40s. Lows
Thursday night be warmer, with widespread upper 30s to mid 40s.
The aforementioned building ridge will result in above average
temperatures Friday into Sunday, with highs at least 5 to 10
degrees above average Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and mainly in
the 70s on Friday, with 80s appearing for eastern portions of the
Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau and up along the Pecos River on
Saturday and Sunday. A few 90s are also apparent near the Rio
Grande Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday night will be similar to
Thursday night, but lows Saturday night will be warmer, with 40s
for the higher elevations and 50s in the eastern and southern
portions of the forecast area. Lows Sunday night will be much the
same story, but slightly cooler with 30s again appearing in higher
elevations and the SE NM plains and less 50s across eastern and
southern portions. Monday next week will be near to below average
behind the Pacific front, with highs in 60s for the SE NM plains,
higher elevations, western Permian Basin, and 70s for most
elsewhere. Monday night will be near average with lows in the 30s
for the SE NM plains, higher elevations, and Permian Basin, and
40s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Westerly winds
with gusts, especially for western terminals, are expected this
afternoon before wind speeds weaken after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Southwesterly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts from 35 to 50 mph,
relative humidity as low as 10 percent, RFTIs as high as 4, and
dry fuels will result in high to very high fire danger and
critical fire weather conditions in Southeast New Mexico and a
large portion of West Texas from 9 AM CST / 8 AM MST this morning
to 9 PM CST / 8 PM MST this evening. Avoid the use of open flames
or any activities that may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions
will have the potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven
wildfires. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity,
and above average temperatures will increase potential for fire
growth. Fires can start from the smallest of flames or sparks.
Observe local burn bans.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  82  40  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 58  76  47  57 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   57  90  57  64 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            59  85  52  57 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass           55  67  46  52 /   0   0   0  30
Hobbs                    56  75  39  54 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    48  75  45  57 /   0   0  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     61  81  43  54 /   0   0   0  20
Odessa                   61  81  44  54 /   0   0   0  20
Wink                     57  81  47  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-271000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
358 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 /258 AM MST Mon Feb 26 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and a large
portion of West Texas from this morning until this evening due to
expected near critical to critical fire weather conditions.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains this afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect for the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

A High Wind Watch is in effect for the adjacent plains, Davis
Mountains, and foothills from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland,
can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland