Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

216 
WWUS84 KMAF 232012
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR
LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
250300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.240324T1700Z-240325T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
312 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 /212 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR 
LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE 
DANGER...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Scurry, Andrews, 
  Martin, Howard, Mitchell, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Midland, 
  Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell, 
  Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, 
  Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, 
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 
  Corridor, Eastern Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, 
  Chinati Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Davis 
  Mountains Foothills, Central Brewster County, Chisos Basin, 
  Presidio Valley and Lower Brewster County.

* TIMING...From noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT
  Sunday.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...5 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks, such as outdoor burning or welding. 
  Extinguish cigarettes in vehicles. Accidental ignitions will 
  have the potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven 
  wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

857 
WWUS84 KMAF 240701
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
241915-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.240324T1700Z-240325T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
201 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 /101 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Scurry, Andrews, 
  Martin, Howard, Mitchell, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Midland, 
  Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell, 
  Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, 
  Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, 
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 
  Corridor, Eastern Culberson County, Reeves County Plains, 
  Chinati Mountains, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Davis 
  Mountains Foothills, Central Brewster County, Chisos Basin, 
  Presidio Valley and Lower Brewster County.

* TIMING...From noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT 
  Sunday.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 13 percent.

* RFTI...5-6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks, such as outdoor burning or welding. 
  Extinguish cigarettes in vehicles. Accidental ignitions will 
  have the potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven 
  wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

WV imagery shows an upper trough off the PacNW coast, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under muddled, southwest flow aloft
on the backside of an exiting ridge. Despite a plethora of high
clouds streaming through the ridge, leeside troughing is developing
on the Front Range ahead of the PacNW trough, increasing return flow
this afternoon.  As this troughing continues to strengthen, models
develop a 55+kt LLJ overnight.  This is a particularly strong LLJ,
even for West Texas.  This will begin developing over the Stockton
Plateau shortly after sundown, then migrate northeast overnight.
With a gradient this strong, advisory-level winds are expected
across the eastern zones overnight.  Cloud cover and mixing will
keep overnight lows ~ 11-13F above normal.

Overnight, a trough will break off from the main lobe of the PacNW
system, and dig to the Four Corners by 18Z Sunday, increasing
southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This
will develop a strong mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes.
NAM/GFS forecast soundings area-wide mix to around 650/625mb,
respectively, mixing warning-level westerlies to the surface over
the northwest CWA, and advisory winds elsewhere.  Despite recent
rains, BLDU looks likely to accompany these winds.  A Pac front will
move through the area during the afternoon, keeping afternoon highs
right around normal.

The Pac front will sharpen up a dryline across the eastern fringes
of the CWA a shower or two at best looks possible before convection
quickly moves east.  Winds should decrease, at least temporarily,
overnight before the main trough arrives Monday.  Lows Sunday night
should come in right around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Clearing and cooler conditions are forecast for Monday with elevated
northwesterly to northerly winds expected south of the Pecos River.
Thereafter, quasi-zonal flow aloft along with a return to southerly
winds are forecast through the end of the work week. High
temperatures Monday will be some 5-10 degrees below normal, climbing
back to normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then 5-10 degrees above normal
Thursday and Friday. Lows will be around normal for late March.
There could be some wraparound showers across the northern Permian
Basin Monday afternoon, but otherwise, the chances of significant
weather impacting west Texas and southeastern New Mexico look slim
to none. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Return flow will increase and become gusty this afternoon, despite
plenty of high cloud. Overnight, a 55+kt LLJ will keep winds
elevated. Sunday, winds will mix early, veering to west and
increasing substantially as clouds decrease. MVFR visibility due
to BLDU is expected beginning around noon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A powerful storm system will move across west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico Sunday. A core of 70-100 knot winds in the 700 to 500 hPa
layer will overspread the region, and clearing is expected to occur
from west to east during the late morning and afternoon. RFTI values
of 5-7 or greater are likely (~70 percent chance of occurrence) and
ERC values will rise to around 50 percent. Strong (20-40 mph with
gusts to 70 mph) westerly to southwesterly winds are forecast at the
surface, and despite ERC values being marginal with some greenup
seen across eastern areas, we believe at this time that fine fuels
(where they exist) will overperform despite excellent RH recovery
overnight tonight. Given this and that the winds will be quite
strong across western regions, we've gone ahead and issued a Red
Flag Warning for all of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. We
may be hitting a fly with a sledgehammer, but given the strength of
the winds and the RH values falling into the teens more or less
aligned with a low level thermal ridge, it is better to err on the
side of caution here.

Winds Monday will be elevated south of the Pecos as the core of the
upper-level wind maximum sags south, and near-critical fire weather
conditions are forecast for the Big Bend. Right now, we're not
highlighting any threats at this time; however, later shifts will
monitor evolving trends. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  77  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 53  67  42  63 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   54  84  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            57  78  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           50  57  37  52 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    50  68  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    47  68  34  57 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     55  75  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   55  74  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     54  74  44  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for
     Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Crane-Glasscock-Howard-
     Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-242000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
256 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 /156 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon and evening for all
of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the western high terrain and
adjacent plains, southeastern New Mexico and the northern and
western Permian Basin on Sunday.

The Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday evening for the
lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

Blowing dust associated with the strong winds may locally reduce
visibilities on Sunday.

Breezy to windy conditions persist through Monday evening for
locations south and west of the Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland