Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

333 
WWUS84 KMAF 070806
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND 
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS SOUTH TO THE PRESIDIO VALLEY FOR RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH 
FIRE DANGER...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-050-059-060-270>278-281-072030-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0005.240307T1800Z-240308T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Presidio Valley-
206 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 /106 AM MST Thu Mar 7 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND 
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS SOUTH TO THE PRESIDIO VALLEY FOR RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH 
FIRE DANGER...

* TIMING...This afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. High winds 
  in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* RFTI...5 to 6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 072036
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS SOUTH TO THE PRESIDIO VALLEY FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-050-059-060-270>278-281-080200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240308T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Presidio Valley-
236 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 /136 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN, AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS SOUTH TO THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* TIMING...This afternoon and evening.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the
  mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* RFTI...5 or 6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1052 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

Another warm day ahead as southwesterly flow keeps temperatures well
above normal for most. A shortwave trough approaches during this
afternoon adding broad lift to the region. At the same time, a
dryline sharpens up in the Permian Basin on a north-south line from
Midland/Odessa to near Dryden. Hi-res ensembles are in agreement on
the timing of showers and storms developing around or just after
midnight tonight. However, the disagreement lies in where the
activity forms and much of that will be determined by where the
dryline settles as it retreats to the west this evening. Any storms
that do form will be isolated in nature and be capable of producing
strong winds and small hail. Storms will quickly move to the east
through the night.

The leading edge of an upper low moves into the area Thursday
morning with a stream of high clouds that will keep lows into the
50s. The core of the attendant jet sits along the southern half of
the CWA, but given the WSW wind directions, high winds are possible
in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Guidance has trended
slightly earlier with the onset of high winds, so have moved the
High Wind Watch to start at noon central time on Thursday. Areas
adjacent to the mountains will need wind advisories as sustained
winds increase and gusts become strong. To the east, the dryline
remains fixed over the eastern fringes of the Permian Basin and
keeps showers and storm chances up. Highs once again reach into the
70s for most with low 80s across the Lower Trans Pecos.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

The broad upper trough will approach the area Friday while at the
same time a strong cold front barrels south through the Plains.
The front is expected to reach our area late Friday morning with
gusty north winds and chilly temperatures filling in behind it.
Westerly winds ahead of the front will shove most low level
moisture to our east so we are likely to see a dry frontal
passage. A shortwave moving around the base of the trough could
bring some wrap-around showers to SE NM and the northern Permian,
but QPF amounts look very light. Temperatures will tumble by
Saturday morning with lows near freezing across a good portion of
the area. Winds will remain elevated so expect a "shock" to the
system after the recent warm weather as wind chills fall into the
teens and 20s! Temperatures will remain below normal through the
weekend before southerly flow returns next week and we see a quick
warm-up. Unfortunately, we don't see any appreciable rain in our
future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Models develop a
MVFR stratus deck overnight, w/the NAM suggesting it'll make it
into KMAF. However, the NBM is not taking this bait yet, and we
won't, either. Instead, there's plenty of high clouds to work
with. Return flow will veer to west and become gusty by late
Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the western
half of our area Thursday afternoon and evening as a strong storm
system approaches. An LLTR will take shape from the Big Bend north
into the Permian Basin as a strong midlevel jet approaches within
southwest flow aloft. The best alignment of critical RHs and
strongest winds (20-30 mph) will occur over near to above normal
fuel loading from the northwest Permian Basin southwest toward the
Davis Mountains. ERC values have been gradually creeping upward
and are now near the 75th percentile across SE NM. It is worth
mentioning that abundant high cloud cover will limit mixing
somewhat as well as the duration of the worst fire weather
conditions. A strong cold front with gusty northerly winds is due
to arrive during the day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  56  77  48 /   0  20  30  10
Carlsbad                 75  52  73  43 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   80  56  81  49 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            79  57  79  48 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  50  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    73  52  73  41 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    73  45  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  56  77  48 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   77  57  77  48 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     78  54  77  45 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-070815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
211 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 /111 AM MST Wed Mar 6 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Thursday afternoon and evening,
mainly across Southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains. A
Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

A High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday afternoon and night in the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Blowing dust could also reduce
visibilities across these same areas.

High winds are possible late Friday night and Saturday through
Guadalupe Pass.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland