Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

 - A weather system will bring rain and thunderstorms to much of
   the region today through Monday morning. The best chance of
   rain is expected north of the Pecos River with high (> 70%)
   confidence of rainfall greater than 1 inch over the
   northeastern Permian Basin.

 - There is a low (< 30%) chance of severe thunderstorms this
   evening into Monday morning. The main threats with any severe
   thunderstorms will be very heavy rainfall and damaging winds. A
   couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out as well.

 - A High Wind Warning is in effect from late tonight through late
   Monday night for the Guadalupe, Delaware, Chinati, and Davis
   mountains. Wind Advisories are in effect Monday morning through
   Monday evening for much of the remaining area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

A very busy next 36 hours is expected across our region and we are
beginning to see the early development of this incoming weather
system. At this time, scattered showers are in progress across much
of the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. There is a
slightly clearing in the rain and clouds beginning to sneak in from
the southwest. This clearing may play a role later, more on that in
a moment. Outside of this, temperatures have gradually warmed into
the mid to upper 60s across much of the area so far this afternoon.
These temperatures likely hold steady or rise a degree or two
through the evening.

As the trough begins to take on a negative tilt and lift
northeastward out of northern Mexico late this evening, additional
precipitation development is expected. Current model guidance is
honing in on a rapidly developing line of convection from roughly
Hobbs south to Pecos that quickly begins to race off towards the
northeast. Other showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of
the remaining area as this main convective line develops. These
additional areas will be supported across the open warm sector of
the Permian Basin and near the track of the developing surface low
over Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. There will
be a chance of severe weather with any of the stronger thunderstorms
late this evening and tonight. The main concern is going to be
damaging winds with a very strong jet streak moving overhead, likely
aiding in downward momentum transfer. At the same time, abundant low-
level wind shear does not rule out a threat for a couple tornadoes,
despite limited instability. Of localized and immediate concern is
if clearing can progress eastward into the Permian Basin. If this
occurs, this may support slightly greater instability and perhaps a
localized increased severe weather threat across the western and
central Permian Basin.

Outside of severe weather, flash flooding is another concern due to
very heavy rainfall. Right now, it appears that very fast storm
motions should limit widespread flash flooding potential. A quick
half an inch to a little over an inch of rain is expected with the
main convective band as it sweeps through the region. Nuisance
flooding may develop due to this torrential rainfall, but the
limited timeframe of the heaviest rainfall should keep flash
flooding localized. Will forgo a Flood Watch given this expectation.

Through the remainder of the overnight hours, the upper trough
continues to eject out across the southern Great Plains. A Pacific
Front will be hot on the heels of the convective line. Strong west
winds quickly erode away any of the low clouds and rain as they
spread out across the region. The majority of the precipitation
should have exited the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. A chilly
start to the day in the 40s can be expected, especially given the
winds.

A windy Monday morning and afternoon continues across the region.
High Wind Warnings go into effect early this morning for all of the
higher elevations with Wind Advisories encompassing the remaining
areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley. These winds will be
supported by mixing of a potent westerly jet streak wrapping behind
our now departing upper-trough through the afternoon. The drier air
and downsloping winds should keep things mild for now despite this
front. Temperatures look to remain largely near normal in the 60s
for many. Winds quickly taper off Monday evening with a combination
of the trough exiting the region and daytime mixing subsiding. We
should end up with light west winds, clear skies, and temperatures
in the upper 30s to low 40s by sunrise on Tuesday, thus marking the
end of the most eventful weather for now.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Pleasant day ahead on Tuesday with much calmer winds and high
temperatures reaching near normal for this time of year. Cooler
temperatures arrive in the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday
thanks to a cold front moving in Tuesday evening. Lows in the 30s to
upper 20s are expected across the region with the cooler air
filtering behind the front. Ensemble models are picking up very calm
winds as a high pressure system develops north of the Permian Basin
Wednesday morning. Radiation cooling due to the high pressure
developing near the area will provide colder low temperatures than
what the ensemble models have been outputting. Depending on where the
high develops, this will determine if there will be widespread
freezing temperatures across the Permian Basin. There is a medium to
high (50-70%) confidence of freezing temperatures occurring higher
elevated areas, especially along the Davis mountains Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. Wednesday high temperatures will range from 5-10
degrees below normal this time of year.

Near normal temperatures are back by Thursday lasting through the
weekend as a ridge builds into the region. No precipitation is in
sight for the rest of the period.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Messy conditions are expected across TAF sites this evening and
overnight. Widespread SHRA with embedded TSRA is developing across
the region, alongside the return of MVFR ceilings. Visibility
reductions from TSRA are possible with ceilings that'll vary with
precipitation passage. Overall winds remain largely southeasterly
through the evening. A rapid changeover to strong westerly winds
is expected overnight. Once this westerly wind shift arrives, low
clouds and rain quickly erode away resulting in a return to VFR
conditions. Very strong westerly winds continue through tomorrow
afternoon. There may be some light visibility reductions from
blowing dust, but confidence is low in this outcome given expected
widespread rain tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  67  42  68 /  90  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 46  64  39  63 / 100  20   0   0
Dryden                   51  74  47  78 /  80   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            47  68  44  69 /  90   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           39  54  38  57 / 100  10   0   0
Hobbs                    44  63  38  62 / 100  30   0   0
Marfa                    38  58  38  64 /  90   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     47  66  42  67 / 100  10   0   0
Odessa                   48  66  43  66 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                     47  67  39  68 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
     midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Monday night for Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...91