Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

174 
WGUS74 KMAF 220318
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

TXC383-220345-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-240722T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Reagan TX-
1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY...

At 1018 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible 
in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 10165 3164 10165 3164 10127 3137 10127

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

93

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Current radar shows convection developing this afternoon across the
area. An upper level low has dropped into southern New Mexico and
far West Texas that is providing the needed instability to cause the
storms to form. Hi-Res models have been pretty consistent showing an
arc of convection form from eastern New Mexico into the western
Permian Basin initially, with outflow boundaries providing additional
foci for later convection. The location of the boundaries will be
impossible to accurately predict, even for the hi-res models, so
convection location will be hard to get with a high degree of
accuracy though models suggest a general southeastward movement
should be expected. Cell movement will be erratic, and possibly even
stationary so will have to be alert for very localized flash flood
potential over the next several hours...mainly in cities and the
mountains.

The rain is expected to diminish briefly this evening, before
increasing again late tonight and into Monday. Many areas will
receive rainfall before this event is over, hopefully most see a
quarter of an inch with higher amounts of one to two inches
possible. Abundant cloud cover tomorrow will keep temperatures well
below normal with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s...quite pleasant for this time of year. Lows over the next
couple of nights will drop into the 60s, most likely whenever
rainfall is heaviest, even if it happens in the middle of the day.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

By Tuesday, a bulk of the worthwhile rain/storm chances will have
occurred, but one final weak shortwave is able to pass through before
the long-wave troughing across the central US lifts away to the
Mississippi Valley. Now in range of some of the high resolution
guidance, as expected, Tuesday's storm chances will be exceptionally
conditional on Monday's storms. The current consensus across the HREF
members suggests Monday's convection and associated outflow is
shoved all the way south into Mexico. This scenario would likely
mean significantly less storm coverage than if there was a boundary
to focus storm development on. Still, between the weak shortwave and
the diurnal heating, a few scattered storms remain possible
generally along/south of I-10.

For Wednesday into Saturday, the upper trough departs which allows
upper ridging to build in over the Four Corners into the central
Plains. While this generally favors a gradual drying trend,
restricting storm chances more and more to the Davis Mountains, a
lingering area of troughing across central Texas could favor
afternoon storms across portions of the eastern/southern Permian
Basin.

After Monday's cool Summer day, temperatures begin to moderate for
Tuesday and Wednesday into the low 90s for most and 80s for the
higher elevations. These slightly-below average temperatures linger
through the end of the week thanks to the presence of the troughing
in central Texas holding back the ridge to our west.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Scattered -SHRA is expected today with embedded TS. Have VCTS in
the MAF TAF but amendments may be needed at others with convection
expected across the local flying area. Activity diminishes after
00Z then returns by 12Z along with MVFR CIGs.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  81  66  89 /  60  60  40  30
Carlsbad                 67  80  65  85 /  80  80  50  30
Dryden                   72  87  69  85 /  30  70  60  50
Fort Stockton            68  81  66  85 /  70  80  60  40
Guadalupe Pass           61  73  60  78 /  70  70  60  30
Hobbs                    64  76  61  85 /  80  80  40  20
Marfa                    65  78  61  80 /  50  90  60  60
Midland Intl Airport     68  77  66  85 /  70  70  50  30
Odessa                   69  77  66  85 /  80  70  50  30
Wink                     70  81  67  87 /  80  80  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-221930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
222 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 /122 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland