Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Convection from last evening has finally either died off or moved
east early this morning. Outflow winds remain but are diminishing
and should not be confused with a cold front that we are expecting
later today. Current observations show that the front is in the
South Plains and should arrive in the Permian Basin after sunrise.
It's hard to tell at this time if the recent storms will affect
potential rainfall behind the front. NBM guidance shows decent PoPs
this afternoon as low level overrunning is helped by an upper
disturbance moving southeast across the area. Hi-res models don't
show this, but didn't handle yesterday's precip well so that may not
mean much. Stayed with NBM on PoPs and have undercut temps this
afternoon by a couple of degrees due to early frontal passage.

Dry air behind the front will help temps drop into the low 70s to
upper 60s yielding a nice morning Tuesday. Temperatures increase
slightly Tuesday and upslope flow west of the Pecos River will help
scattered showers and storms to develop in the mountains.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The long term period features a relatively quiet pattern along with
fairly stable high temperatures as an upper ridge meanders from
southern California into the Four Corners region by the end of the
week. High temperatures generally range in the low to mid 90s for
most each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week. With
northerly upper flow and subsidence found on the southwestern
periphery of the ridge, any storm activity will largely be confined
to the Davis Mountains and western high terrain throughout the week.
Looking ahead into the far extended for early next week, ensembles
are hinting that as the upper ridge transitions into the south
central Plains, an inverted trough may sneak in on the south side of
it. This probably won't amount to much...but in theory, it could
enhance rain chances outside of the mountains. At the very least, it
prevents high heat from building and keeps temperatures near normal
for mid July.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Current satellite shows a VFR cloud deck near BKN050 developing in
southeastern New Mexico and the South Plains moving south. So
while VFR conditions should remain, lower CIGs will be around. TS
may develop after 18Z but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs. If it develops, CNM/HOB will be the sites most likely
affected.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 88  69  91  70 /  60  40  20  20
Dryden                   98  74  96  74 /  10  20  30  10
Fort Stockton            93  71  91  72 /  30  30  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           82  63  84  67 /  40  30  30  30
Hobbs                    82  63  89  67 /  50  40  10  20
Marfa                    92  63  86  62 /  50  40  70  30
Midland Intl Airport     88  69  92  70 /  20  30  20  10
Odessa                   89  69  91  71 /  20  30  20  10
Wink                     93  71  92  73 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-090745-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
233 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 /133 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms along/south of I-10 this
afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland