Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Severe weather today is the main weather concern in the short
term. A cold front currently located near the I-20 corridor is
moving south with cool northeasterly winds moving in behind.
Convergence along the front will be a source for thunderstorm
initiation and these storms will move northeast into the cooler
air behind the front. This will cause these storms to become
elevated and greatly diminish the tornado threat though very large
and damaging hail will still be possible and a significant threat.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southeastern New
Mexico and the Permian Basin. South of the front, warm and moist
air will destabilize due to an approaching disturbance and daytime
heating and strong directional shear will provide a favorable
environment for severe and tornadic thunderstorms. A Tornado Watch
is in effect for the Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend. Storms from
both watch areas are expected to merge into a line later this
evening changing the severe threat to a straight line wind and
large hail threat as it exits the Permian Basin to the east.
Cool air settling in behind the front will make for a beautiful
Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s for most
areas. The only 90s will be along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Quiet but warm weather returns to the forecast for the start of
the new week. As a strong upper-low begins to open and move into
the northern Great Plains, taking on a negative tilt, this acts to
push the dryline to the east as zonal flow develops. This zonal
flow is expected to be maintained through the first half of the
week through at least Wednesday. What this translate to is
temperatures mainly in the 90s, with 80s in the higher elevations
and 100s in the Big Bend each day. Dry conditions with a fair bit
of sunshine for all. This begins to change as a conglomeration of
shortwaves congeals into a broad trough extending from the Great
Lakes to the central Rockies. The developing pattern with
shortwaves rounding its base aide in pushing a cold front through
the region by late week. Slightly cooler temperatures begin to
stream into the northern part of the area by Thursday with
portions of the Permian Basin remaining more in the 80s. The cold
front is then expected to clear the region by Friday ushering in
mostly 80s and even some 70s across the area. Beyond this point,
the forecast becomes chaotic and messy. At this time, an upper low
appears to develop near the Great Salt Lake. This puts our region
back under southwest flow aloft with lee troughing allowing
moisture to finally slide back west. Whether this will coincide
with any disturbances or bring enough moisture for appreciable
rainfall remains to be seen. Other than this hope by next weekend
we are dry overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front is moving through the area shifting winds around from
the northeast. The front will cause SHRA/TS to develop 18-21Z directly
affecting MAF/FST and close enough to the remaining terminals to
affect local flying. TS moves east of the terminals near 00Z. MVFR
CIGs will develop after 06Z and remain through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidities
over the weekend reducing the fire weather threat. Warmer
temperatures and stronger winds increase the fire threat in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos Monday and
Tuesday. Possible rainfall Saturday will determine fine fuel
moisture levels so a better idea for the potential for critical
fire conditions will be known for the next forecast. Elevated to
near critical conditions continue through Thursday before some
improvement is seen Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  78  65  90 /  70  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 58  88  58  88 /  40  10   0   0
Dryden                   65  82  67  94 /  60  50   0   0
Fort Stockton            62  85  63  94 /  60  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  81  58  78 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  80  59  87 /  40  10  10   0
Marfa                    51  85  51  88 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  79  65  91 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                   61  80  66  91 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                     60  86  63  93 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-051900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
153 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 /1253 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
continue tonight, with a threat for very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes. There is also the threat of very heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183 is in
effect until 10 PM CDT/ 9 PM MDT.

Lightning and gusty, erratic winds could pose a risk for fire starts
across western areas this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Critical fire weather is expected next week across western portions
of the area from Monday afternoon through Thursday before fire
weather concerns start to decrease Friday.

High winds are possible Monday through Thursday next week across the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and surrounding foothills.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             21 SE Fort Stockton     30.65N 102.68W
05/04/2024  E2.50 Inch       Pecos              TX   Storm Chaser

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

TXZ045>048-050>052-042330-
Martin TX-Dawson TX-Scurry TX-Andrews TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
Gaines TX-
552 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS...
NORTHWESTERN SCURRY...EASTERN GAINES...BORDEN...MARTIN...WESTERN
HOWARD AND DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles north of Andrews to near Big Spring.
Movement was northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Spring, Andrews, Lamesa, Ackerly, Gail, Lenorah, Welch, Luther,
Fluvanna, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Los Ybanez, Patricia, Arvana,
Hancock, McKenzie Lake, Big Spring McMahon-Wrinkle Airpark, Knott,
Vealmoor, Elbow, and Stanton Municipal Aiport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 157 and 179.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 10154 3225 10271 3296 10230 3297 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 213DEG 75KT 3251 10245 3231 10145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

16

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
701 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Hail             27 SW Bakersfield       30.57N 102.57W
05/04/2024  E2.50 Inch       Pecos              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Tennis Ball (2.50 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Hail             27 N Longfellow         30.55N 102.56W
05/04/2024  E1.25 Inch       Pecos              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
703 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Wink               31.78N 103.20W
05/04/2024  M62 MPH          Winkler            TX   ASOS

            ASOS station KINK Wink.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
708 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Flash Flood      4 W West Odessa         31.85N 102.57W
05/04/2024                   Ector              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&