Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

865 
WGUS74 KMAF 201836
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
136 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

TXC173-227-335-201915-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240420T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glasscock TX-Howard TX-Mitchell TX-
136 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK, HOWARD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES...

At 136 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain in Near Westbrook. Between 1 and 3 inches of 
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Big Spring, Colorado City, Coahoma, Loraine, Forsan, Lake Colorado 
  City State Park, Lake Colorado City, Sand Springs, Colorado City 
  Airport, Champion Creek Reservoir, Westbrook, Cuthbert, Vincent, 
  Big Spring Country Club, Buford, Big Spring McMahon-Wrinkle 
  Airpark and Elbow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 10169 3225 10169 3237 10157 3246 10137
      3251 10114 3250 10066 3209 10067 3209 10126
      3207 10126 3207 10137 3212 10162

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Rick Hluchan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

WV imagery shows the west coast trough has made landfall, moving
through SoCal/Arizona and approaching West texas and Southeast new
Mexico, leaving the area under southwest flow aloft.  At the
surface, a secondary cold front is pushing into the area, and this
should result in highs today ~ 9-10F cooler than yesterday's as CAA
behind the front continues in northeasterly flow.  Models suggest
marginally-high gap winds through KGDP as the front moves in, but
this will be brief and intermittent at best, and not worth a warning
attm.  Meanwhile, area radars show convection developing in the
lower Trans Pecos, and this activity is still forecast to spread
west and north today as the front moves farther southwest and large-
scale ascent commences w/the arrival of the west coast trough.  As
the trough arrives, mid-level lapse rates increase to 7C/km or
better, so a hail threat will be present.  Best chances still look
to be 12-18Z this morning over the northeastern zones. QPF has
increased over the past 24 hours, and hopefully this trend continues.

Tonight, convective chances slowly taper off W-E, but showers may
redevelop in the lee of the mountains after midnight in upslope flow
as winds veer a little to the east.  Lows should drop to 2-3F below
normal.

Sunday, surface flow finally begins veering to east as showers taper
off to the south.  Temperatures will attempt a recovery, but only by
a couple of degrees, still coming in ~ 18-20F below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Generally, increasing heights and mid-level ridging can be expected
to begin the new week and this is expected to continue through at
least midweek. This allows for increasing temperatures and plentiful
sunshine in the meantime. Outside of an isolated thunderstorm on
Monday in the Big Bend or Davis Mountains as a weak disturbance
passes to our south, we remain dry. Temperatures warm into mainly
the 70s with 80s along the river valleys on Monday. Temperatures
continue their climb on Tuesday as most reach the 80s with 90s
returning to the river valleys. Our next trough begins to lift out
of the southwestern U.S. late Thursday into Friday. This coincides
with the dryline setting up across our eastern portions of the area.
With this approaching disturbance, an isolated thunderstorm threat
will exist along and east of the dryline through the end of the
week. Temperatures remain largely unchanged with widespread 80s with
90s along the river valleys continuing.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cigs will bounce between MVFR and IFR for the next 24 hours, with
showers developing all terminals this morning as an upper trough
moves into the area, as well as a secondary cold front. Fog is
also possible. Conditions will improve a little on the backside
of the trough tonight but cigs should remain IFR/MVFR all
terminals except KCNM, which could see LIFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  44  60  42 / 100  30  10   0
Carlsbad                 58  47  61  46 /  50  20   0   0
Dryden                   69  52  65  51 /  80  30  20  10
Fort Stockton            63  47  62  47 /  90  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  44  56  45 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    52  42  59  42 / 100  20   0   0
Marfa                    73  40  65  40 /  50  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     54  45  59  44 /  90  20  10   0
Odessa                   54  45  59  45 /  90  20  10   0
Wink                     59  46  63  47 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-210745-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
231 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 /131 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible today into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall continue to be possible
through early Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland