Tornado Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Main concern during this forecast period is the severe weather
potential during the first period.

Recent objective analyses indicate an explosive atmospheric
condition prevailing across the forecast area.  Values derived from
18z sounding are supportive of all thunderstorm hazards.

However, a substantial cap exists.  Overall forcing of the
atmospheric column currently is weak.  Recent CAM runs suggest
forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and
central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection. In this
scenario, the severe weather potential would exit between 00z and
08z in the LZK forecast warning area. A subjectively analyzed
boundary, likely connectively enhanced from earlier activity in
northeast sections of the forecast area, will be a particularly
dangerous area for severe potential late this afternoon and
evening,

Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the period, although
above normal afternoon temperatures will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The period will begin with surface high pressure building into the
area, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures. Northerly winds
will gradually become NE and then E as the high slides off to the
east, and eventually a return flow will develop in the Fri-
Sat time frame, bringing warm and moist air back to the state.

In the meantime, several upper level disturbances will ripple thru
the northwesterly flow aloft, bringing chances for precipitation. I
anticipate that a number of nocturnal MCS's may affect the area,
moving NW-SE thru the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The cold front continues to move through central Arkansas.
Thunderstorms are located just ahead of the front. Expect these
storms to move south and east as the front pushes through. Storms
should be out of southeast Arkansas between 9Z and 10Z. High
pressure and drier air will build into the state behind the front.
Monday will be dry during the day. MVFR conditions are expected
south early...then VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  64  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
Camden AR         92  65  89  65 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       83  60  83  58 /   0   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    92  65  89  64 /   0   0  10  30
Little Rock   AR  91  67  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     93  67  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      91  63  88  63 /   0   0  20  30
Mountain Home AR  85  60  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
Newport AR        87  65  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  66  90  66 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   89  62  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Searcy AR         89  63  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      90  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
839 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-271000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
839 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional thunderstorms are expected develop, most likely during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could be strong
to severe with hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
possible. Additionally, heavy rainfall is also expected with these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms should be winding down Monday morning
across portions of southeastern Arkansas. A few storms could produce
damaging winds and large hail before the activity comes to an end.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will return to the
forecast by Wednesday, persisting through much of the upcoming work
week. The main hazard with any of these storms would to be damaging
straight-line winds.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon and evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

55

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1143 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

ARZ034-046-047-270515-
Monroe AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-
1143 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Woodruff, northeastern Prairie and north central Monroe Counties
through 1215 AM CDT
...

At 1142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Brinkley, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brinkley...                       Hunter...
Alfrey...                         Cotton Plant...
Fargo...                          Becton...
Dagmar WMA...                     Little Dixie...
Zent...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for eastern and
central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3491 9115 3491 9112 3487 9112
      3487 9110 3479 9110 3494 9147 3513 9119
      3510 9104 3500 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 280DEG 50KT 3497 9127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

70

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1205 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Patterson           35.26N 91.30W
05/27/2024  M58 MPH          Woodruff           AR   Mesonet

&&

JBC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bald Knob               35.31N 91.57W
05/26/2024                   White              AR   Public

            Social media picture showing snapped power
            pole and tree down.

&&

JBC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

ARZ053-062-066-067-270600-
Calhoun AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-Ouachita AR-
1229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Clark,
northwestern Calhoun, southwestern Dallas and northern Ouachita
Counties through 100 AM CDT
...

At 1229 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Sparkman to near
Chidester. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Camden...                         Bearden...
Sparkman...                       Chidester...
Cullendale...                     Highland Industrial Park...
East Camden...                    Amy...
Eagle Mills...                    Harmony Grove...
Ouachita...                       Vaden...
Locust Bayou...                   Fairview in Ouachita County...
Warner...                         Tates Bluff...
Pine Grove...                     Millville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 9245 3348 9278 3380 9313 3393 9287
      3392 9274 3384 9279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 308DEG 41KT 3385 9277 3378 9305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

70

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Patterson           35.26N 91.30W
05/26/2024  M58 MPH          Woodruff           AR   Mesonet

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 4
            W Patterson.

&&

JBC