Tornado Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
128 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A somewhat active weather pattern is expected continue through
Monday morning as two additional disturbances pass through the
state. As of early this morning...several showers and thunderstorms
are making their way out of TX/OK and will likely push into Arkansas
(especially north) through the overnight hours. Hail and damaging
straight-line winds are most likely with these storms.

A break in the unsettled weather is expected by late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon before additional showers and thunderstorms
pop-up across western Arkansas Sunday evening. These storms will
once again pose a severe risk across much of the state as they move
into the state along and ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds,
hail, and a few tornadoes will once again be possible with this
rounds.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rain. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Monday morning with some severe storms likely. However, the end is
in sight with this active weather pattern...as the cold front clears
the state, it will bring in cooler and more stable air. It will be
short lived...but calmer weather is expected Monday afternoon into
the first part of the long term period.

Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The period will begin with NWrly flow aloft across much of the Cntrl
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be moving into the Mid and
Nrn MS Valleys. Clockwise flow around this expansive area of high
pressure will advect cooler and drier conditions into the region,
via Nrly winds. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched across
portions of the state through midweek, maybe even late week, however
moisture will begin to creep back into SW AR as early as Tuesday
evening.

Dry weather is expected initially on Tuesday, however a series of
upper level disturbances is expected to traverse through background
NWrly flow. This should allow for the development of convective
complexes through the remainder of the period. Some of these
complexes may develop into MCS's propagating SEwrd across the state
along a pronounced NW to SE situated theta E gradient. Damaging
straight-line winds would be the primary hazards with these
thunderstorms. Temperatures through the period would be in the upper
70s to lower 90s for highs and 50s and 60s for lows.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through a good portion of the
period as TSRA/SHRA are expected to move across northern
terminals later tonight. By sunrise tomorrow, showers and
thunderstorms will have pushed out of the state with a break in
the unsettled weather until Sunday afternoon/evening. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be possible with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  68  88  64 /  20  30   0   0
Camden AR         92  70  93  65 /  10  30   0  10
Harrison AR       88  63  83  60 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    91  68  92  64 /  10  30   0  10
Little Rock   AR  92  72  91  67 /  10  30   0   0
Monticello AR     93  73  92  68 /  10  40  10  10
Mount Ida AR      90  67  91  62 /  10  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
Newport AR        89  68  88  64 /  20  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     92  72  91  67 /  10  40   0  10
Russellville AR   90  66  89  62 /  10  20   0   0
Searcy AR         90  68  89  63 /  20  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      90  72  89  67 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
131 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-271000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
131 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the early morning
hours today. Additional thunderstorms are expected to fire up
Sunday evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible. Additionally, flash
flooding will be possible today as a result of heavy rainfall
associated with thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms should be winding down Monday morning
across portions of southeastern Arkansas. A few storms could produce
damaging winds and large hail before the activity comes to an end.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will return to the
forecast by Wednesday, persisting through much of the upcoming work
week. The main hazard with any of these storms would to be damaging
straight-line winds.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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