Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The overall synoptic pattern had Arkansas was on the eastern edge of
an upper ridge this morning. The ridge is retrograding and
amplifying over the western US, which will result in a trof taking
its place over the midsection of the country. Ultimately Arkansas
will end up under a NW-W flow aloft.

A cold front will be moving out of the Plains and making its way
into Arkansas tomorrow. The front will take its time and may not
make it out of the forecast area until late tomorrow night into the
early hours of Thursday morning.

Thunderstorm chances will increase across the state tomorrow,
reaching the highest POPs tomorrow night.

The only lingering question is what the rain chances will look like
overnight into early tomorrow morning. NAM is rather aggressive
at developing showers and thunderstorms along outflow coming out
of MO/OK later this evening, and the HRRR follows suit, albeit
with the convection further north and with somewhat less coverage.

With that in mind, I have introduced some lower grade POPs further
south toward central AR by morning...faster than the NBM brings
anything into the area.

Last but not least, afternoon heat index values across the southern
counties tomorrow will top 105...so I went ahead and issued a heat
advisory for those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Guidance remains in relatively good agreement this afternoon and any
changes to the extended period will be relatively minor. Confidence
remains on the higher side that temperatures will actually average
below seasonal average with at least some chances of precipitation,
especially in the latter part of the period.

Period starts with a highly amplified pattern in place that is
highlighted by upper ridging over the western CONUS and subsequent
downstream troughing stretching from the western gulf coast NE to
the eastern Great Lakes. Surface boundary forecast to be located
over northern Louisiana with ongoing chances of scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the south through Friday. Additional precip
amounts will be minimal with just a few hundredths of an inch
possible.

Front will remain quasi-stationary over northern Louisiana before
starting to retreat back to the north and stalling out over south
Arkansas Sunday. Most of the state, with the exception of the far
south, will be dry on Saturday before widespread precipitation
chances return on Sunday. Precipitation amounts are not expected to
be very high but some areas could pick upwards of a half an inch.

A slightly cooler but noticeably drier airmass will overspread the
region behind the front with both high and low temperatures below
average. Moisture levels will begin to increase as the boundary
moves north but temperatures should stay below average with
increased cloud cover and precipitation chances in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Chances for convection increase late this afternoon and through
the evening hrs across NRN sections...then gradually shifting
south during the overnight/morning hrs for the central to SRN
terminals. By Wed afternoon...expect a break in precip...but
additional convection may redevelop during the heat of the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  87  68  84 /  70  80  60  30
Camden AR         76  96  70  86 /  10  30  60  70
Harrison AR       69  84  65  82 /  80  80  30  10
Hot Springs AR    74  94  70  85 /  30  50  70  60
Little Rock   AR  75  91  72  84 /  40  50  70  50
Monticello AR     78  96  72  86 /   0  40  60  70
Mount Ida AR      73  93  68  84 /  30  50  70  50
Mountain Home AR  71  84  67  84 /  80  80  40  10
Newport AR        73  88  70  83 /  60  70  60  30
Pine Bluff AR     76  94  71  83 /  10  40  70  60
Russellville AR   73  90  70  85 /  60  60  70  40
Searcy AR         73  88  70  83 /  60  70  70  40
Stuttgart AR      74  90  73  82 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004-052-053-056-
057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-
240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ005>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054-055-121-122-
130-138-230-238.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ052-053-
062>069.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
507 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-171000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
507 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values of 105 degrees to in excess of 110 degrees are
expected again this afternoon over most of the forecast area. In
addition to hazardous heat, increasing chances for thunderstorms
are expected across northern Arkansas later this evening, a few
of which may become strong to briefly severe. Main hazards with
thunderstorms will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast Wednesday
and Thursday, along and ahead of the slow moving cold front. While
organized severe weather is not expected, heavy downpours could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Drier and cooler weather will return later in the week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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