Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Early afternoon surface observations and visible satellite imagery
showed a scattered to broken stratocumulus deck over much of the
state. Temperatures had climbed into the lower to mid 70s across
north and eastern Arkansas with upper 70s and a few sites topping
80 degrees in south and western Arkansas. Regional doppler radar
network observed isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily over southwest Arkansas. Some very light
rain showers or areas of rain sprinkles were found across portions
of central Arkansas. The 12Z LZK weather balloon showed a
pronounced area of steep lapse rates from 800 to 600 mb, and
another from 500 to 300 mb. In between and below were inversions
due to an elevated mixed layer and subsidence, respectively. Using
the 12Z weather balloon in conjunction with RAP upper air analysis
and objective surface analysis, the SPC mesoanalysis page progged
approximately 2500 J/KG of CAPE, or energy for thunderstorms, over
south and central Arkansas. CAPE values fell to 1500 to 2000
closer to the Missouri border and across parts of west central
Arkansas where low-level moisture advection had not yet moistened
up the boundary layer as much as it has for points east across
Arkansas. Water vapor satellite imagery showed a weak shortwave
trough over Arkansas moving to the northeast with weak shortwave
ridging upstream out ahead of a larger, but broad, upper level
trough roughly oriented over the high plains.

Although SPC mesoanalysis shows the thermodynamic environment over
Arkansas has 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE with no significant inhibition
in place, the atmosphere doesn't just "auto-convect", especially
with indications of backed winds and a subsidence inversion
located at approximately 800 mb aloft in place. Something needs to
provide forcing for ascent to get storms going this afternoon and
this evening, and forcing for ascent is notably diffuse and weakly
organized today. Where convection initiation has already taken
place, roughly from southwest Arkansas south over western
Louisiana, surface observations do indicate a weakly oriented line
of confluence with southeast winds over LA and southwest winds
over far east TX providing some low-level convergence to focus
initiation efforts. As this line of confluence became more ill
defined to the north in Arkansas, convection was less prevalent at
the time of this discussion. The NAM and HRRR both offer up some
variation on the theme of this line of confluence moving north
later this afternoon into this evening, spreading some scattered
convection north across portions of central and western Arkansas.
Have a 30-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms roughly
following this confluence line north-northwest across the state
following model guidance.

We are under a marginal risk of severe storms through 12Z which
covers the remainder of the day today and the early morning hours
of Tuesday. The thermodynamic environment and two areas of steeper
lapse rates aloft will certainly support rapidly developing
thunderstorms through tonight. If we had a more supportive shear
profile, it would warrant a greater risk of severe storms,
however, based on the 12Z LZK weather balloon and forecast
hodographs of winds aloft, the shear profile should continue to
support a short lived storm mode through tomorrow morning. Using
the 12Z LZK hodograph as a visual example, the shear profile
extends pretty quickly to the northeast before circling back
around a couple of times in the middle atmosphere (2-6 km range)
before extending back out to the east at anvil level (8km+). If
you imagine a thunderstorm updraft in this environment, it would
initially tilt toward the northeast within the hydromWEDNESDAY:

The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.

On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.

Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.

Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.

SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:

An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler anWEDNESDAY:

The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.

On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.

Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.

Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.

SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:

An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.d drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.eteor growth
zone. Within the precipitation growth zone, the air becomes more
or less stationary in the inertial frame of reference of the
nascent updraft concentrating hydrometeors within the primary
updraft corridor. This will cause most of the heavier hydrometeors
to fall back within the updraft, providing very little separation
between warm rising air and rain cooled air, setting up a self
limiting process of individual thunderstorm cell propagation.

In this environment, thunderstorm cells will develop quickly, even
supporting broad hail cores aloft for 30 to 45 minutes. The size
of the hail isn't likely to get very big however due to the rain
cooled air of 20-25 deg C/K cooler than the updraft air overtaking
low-level updrafts and causing upright hail core growth to be even
more limited than the life of the thunderstorm itself. As a
result, think that 1" hail is the largest hail we could
consistently expect, with smaller hail much more common. A 20-25
degree theta e/moisture difference with height is sufficient to
drag some higher momentum air down to the surface, so some
microburst/damaging winds are also possible. Overall expect the
coverage of severe storms to remain limited, but thunderstorm
coverage itself may increase to scattered in nature later this
afternoon into this evening.

For Tuesday, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain closely
tied to a cold front expected to makes its way southeast across
Arkansas throughout the daylight hours. The front itself could
cause thunderstorms to increase in coverage to scattered to
numerous, but a similar thermodynamic and shear environment will
be in place, so expect similar impacts from storms with marginally
severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts possible near the state
out ahead of and along the front. The front is expected to move
southeast of the area by Tuesday evening, with cooler and drier
air moving into place at least for Wednesday before a bigger storm
system arrives to end the work week.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

WEDNESDAY:

The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.

On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with theseWEDNESDAY:

The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Wednesday will see
a dynamic storm system exiting the region with a sfc low pressure
center positioned across the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS
and a chance at some wrap around moisture behind this center of low
pressure extending back into Arkansas. Despite this wrap around
moisture, chances for precipitation look meager and this will likely
be our driest day until Sunday. Expect overcast skies with
temperatures remaining above climatological normals for this time
of the year.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

The three day period of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will provide
our highest rainfall totals of the week across the CWA and state of
Arkansas. Thursday will begin with decent rain and thunderstorm
chances nudging back into the forecast as a sfc low pressure center
deepens across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle with an attendant warm
front extending southeastward into central Texas. Expect on Thursday
to begin to see rain and thunderstorms chances increase across the
Natural State in advance of the warm front boundary.

On Friday, a barrage of sfc features will assist in dictating our
weather across Arkansas. The main players will be two sfc low
pressure centers, one across the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS with
an attendant warm front extending eastward along the
Arkansas/Louisiana border into the Deep South region of the CONUS.
The second sfc low pressure center, will be planted across Missouri
with an attendant cold front extending southwestward into Oklahoma
on approach to the Natural State. Expect on Friday high chances of
widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with these two features
working in tandem.

Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.

Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.

SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:

An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday. two features
working in tandem.

Saturday will be the beginning of a transition as both low pressure
centers at the sfc both push well east of the state and the cold
front pushes through by Saturday afternoon. Expect on Saturday, for
rain and thunderstorm chances to continue, but drastically begin to
diminish with the FROPA.

Rainfall totals beginning from Monday afternoon/evening through
Saturday will range from 1.5 inches as much as 2+ inches of
rainfall. It will not be out of the realm of possibility for a
location to receive 2.5+ inches of rainfall, especially across
southeastern Arkansas; however, higher rainfall totals will likely
be hit and miss depending on if a location experiences an efficient
cell at producing rainfall.

SUNDAY/NEXT MONDAY:

An upper lvl ridge approaches in cohesion with sfc high pressure and
the modified airmass which will now be much cooler and drier after
the FROPA from Saturday. Temperatures in terms of both lows and
highs will be lowered down to values at climatological values that
are normal for the time of the year. Expect dry and clearing
conditions with mostly clear skies on both Sunday and next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  74  52  68 /  60  40  30  10
Camden AR         59  77  55  74 /  50  30  20  10
Harrison AR       56  70  48  66 /  40  30  20  10
Hot Springs AR    59  77  53  71 /  40  40  30  20
Little Rock   AR  61  78  56  71 /  60  50  40  20
Monticello AR     62  75  58  74 /  60  40  30  10
Mount Ida AR      58  77  52  73 /  50  50  40  20
Mountain Home AR  57  72  49  66 /  40  40  20  10
Newport AR        60  74  53  67 /  60  40  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     60  76  56  71 /  60  30  30  20
Russellville AR   59  77  52  71 /  30  40  30  20
Searcy AR         57  76  52  68 /  60  50  30  20
Stuttgart AR      61  75  56  70 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...Cavanaugh

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