Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term
period as several shortwaves push through the area. As of early this
morning...a few thunderstorms are currently popping up over portions
of southern and central Arkansas with additional coverage across the
state expected through the morning and afternoon hours today. Hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible with these
storms.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue into early Sunday with
strong to severe storms possible. Coverage is uncertain at this
time...although it appears most parts of the state could see on and
off showers.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rain. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Sunday morning with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be
the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is expected.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated to continue into
portions of the long term period. To begin, WSW H500 flow will be in
place, with upper level disturbances traversing through the flow at
roughly 18 to 24 hour intervals. Near the surface, AR will reside
entirely within the warm sector bound by low pressure over the Cntrl
Plains and a surface cold front draped back to the SW into portions
of Wrn TX.

Shower and thunderstorm chances should be greatest Sunday
night/Monday morning over much of the state with chances lingering
into Monday night/Tuesday morning over Srn half of AR. Some storms
could become locally strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds the primary hazards. Outside of these aforementioned periods
of time, showers and thunderstorms will be possible but PoP chances
are much lower. QPF amounts should remain less than half an inch to
one inch.

Beyond Monday, upper NW flow will develop and this will help ridging
move into the region. Surface winds should switch from the S/SW to
N/NE and drier air will advect into the state in the wake of a N to
S moving cold front. This will inhibit rainfall across the state
beyond this period, at least for a couple/few days before surface
winds switch back to the SE and low-level moisture increases.

Temperatures through the period will be in the 60s and 70s for lows
with upper 80s to lower 90s for highs. After the front moves
through, lows will be in the 50s and 60s with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Dew point temperatures will fall from the mid 60s and
mid 70s ahead of the front to mid 50s and lower 60s in the wake of
the front. The combination of lower temperatures and lower dew
points will help conditions feel pleasant once again.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the overnight hours will
additional showers and thunderstorms moving into the state from
LA/TX. These showers will likely affect central and southern
terminals but VCSH has been written into TAFs to express
uncertainty on timing and coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  67  84  72 /  60  50  10  30
Camden AR         88  69  89  71 /  30  40  10   0
Harrison AR       83  61  84  69 /  40  30  10  40
Hot Springs AR    86  67  88  71 /  30  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  87  71  89  74 /  40  70  20  20
Monticello AR     90  71  90  74 /  30  50  30   0
Mount Ida AR      85  66  87  71 /  20  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  83  63  83  69 /  50  40  10  40
Newport AR        84  68  86  73 /  60  60  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     88  70  89  73 /  50  60  20  10
Russellville AR   85  67  87  72 /  30  50  10  20
Searcy AR         85  68  87  71 /  50  60  20  20
Stuttgart AR      86  71  88  74 /  60  70  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-250745-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
234 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of today.
Some storms could be strong to severe with hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes possible. Additionally, flash flooding will be
possible today as a result of heavy rainfall associated with
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An unsettled pattern continues for Arkansas through the weekend.
Thunderstorms are forecast each day, with some severe thunderstorms
possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats
with the strongest storms. A tornado or two will also be possible.
Locally heavy rainfall may also result in some isolated flash
flooding.

Cooler and drier air will move into northern Arkansas on Monday and
clear the remainder of the state by Tuesday of next week, with the
threat for hazardous weather becoming minimal thereafter.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

73/70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ042-053-054-141-240730-
Hot Spring AR-Clark AR-Garland AR-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County AR-
201 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Clark,
Garland, northwestern Hot Spring and southeastern Montgomery Counties
through 230 AM CDT
...

At 201 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Glenwood, or 16 miles southeast of Mount Ida,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Mountain Pine...
Hot Springs Memorial Field...     Meyers...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Lofton...
Rockwell...                       Hot Springs National Park...
Avant...                          Red Oak...
Oaklawn Racetrack...              Bonnerdale...
Crystal Springs Landing...        Sunshine...
Welsh...                          Royal...
Lena Landing Rec Area...          Point Cedar...
Lake Catherine State Park...      Gulpha Gorge...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 9323 3477 9319 3441 9289 3429 9344
      3431 9348 3434 9348 3434 9353 3438 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 239DEG 41KT 3438 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ042-054-240800-
Hot Spring AR-Garland AR-
236 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Garland
and northwestern Hot Spring Counties through 300 AM CDT
...

At 236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lofton, or 12 miles west of Hot Springs, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Mountain Pine...
Hot Springs Memorial Field...     Lake Ouachita State Park...
Lofton...                         Rockwell...
Hot Springs National Park...      Red Oak...
Oaklawn Racetrack...              Sunshine...
Royal...                          Gulpha Gorge...
Pettyview...                      Hempwallace...
Pearcy...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9323 3443 9335 3467 9322 3445 9293
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 227DEG 11KT 3445 9326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ042-043-240830-
Saline AR-Garland AR-
256 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Garland and
west central Saline Counties through 330 AM CDT
...

At 256 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hot Springs National Park, or over Hot Springs, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Hot Springs Village...
Mountain Pine...                  Hot Springs Memorial Field...
Hot Springs National Park...      Jessieville...
Rockwell...                       Oaklawn Racetrack...
Gulpha Gorge...                   Mountain Valley...
Owensville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 9307 3452 9321 3477 9305 3458 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 217DEG 14KT 3452 9309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ043-044-240830-
Pulaski AR-Saline AR-
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Saline and
west central Pulaski Counties through 330 AM CDT
...

At 306 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lonsdale, or 9 miles west of Benton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Benton...                         Bryant...
Shannon Hills...                  Salem in Saline County...
Alexander...                      Avilla...
Nance...                          Grape...
Bland...                          Congo...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 9241 3451 9276 3454 9279 3456 9279
      3480 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 229DEG 24KT 3456 9274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
327 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ052-141-340-341-240900-
Pike AR-Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County AR-
327 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Pike, east
central Polk and southwestern Montgomery Counties through 400 AM CDT
...

At 326 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Athens to near Dierks to near Mineral
Springs. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro...                   Daisy...
Narrows Dam...                    Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Bard Springs Recreation Area...   Caney Creek Wilderness...
Daisy State Park...               Albert Pike Recreation Area...
Crater Of Diamonds State Park...  Big Fork...
Bear Creek Public Use Area...     Langley...
Lodi...                           Shady Lake Recreation Area...
Nathan...                         Fancyhill...
Roaring Branch Natural Area...    Hopper...
Kirby...                          Highland in Pike County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 9384 3429 9362 3396 9358 3401 9375
      3401 9382 3418 9382 3419 9393 3435 9394
      3435 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 233DEG 31KT 3431 9412 3409 9397 3390 9398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

73

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
331 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ARZ043-044-240900-
Pulaski AR-Saline AR-
331 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Saline and
northwestern Pulaski Counties through 400 AM CDT
...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lonsdale, or 10 miles east of Hot Springs Village, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    West Little Rock...
Hot Springs Village...            Southwest Little Rock...
Chenal Valley...                  Salem in Saline County...
Otter Creek...                    Avilla...
Congo...                          Paron...
Grape...                          Crows...
Bland...                          Owensville...
Ferndale...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 9279 3456 9279 3456 9281 3459 9281
      3459 9284 3463 9288 3464 9288 3493 9262
      3470 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 232DEG 30KT 3463 9279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73