Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

19Z observational data indicate widely scattered convective cells
across south central and southeast portions Arkansas. This
activity does not appear to be affected by the relatively brief
decrease in contributions to instability by solar radiation.

A southwesterly flow pattern will prevail over the mid south
during this forecast period. Also during this period, an upper low
now over the Arizona/New Mexico border will approach the mid
south during this period.

A warm front was analyzed from near Stuttgart, to Arkadelphia, to
Waldron. This feature, along with low level response to the
approaching upper low, and favorable jet streak dynamics will
combine to act on an anomalously moist atmospheric column to
promote convection.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the
forecast area during this forecast period, starting after sunset
today. The heaviest accumulations during this period are expected
across the southern third of the forecast area, where forecast
confidence is relatively high concerning 6 to 8 inches of
accumulations during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

To begin the period, a low pressure system will continue to make its
way through the state continuing heavy rain chances through early
Thursday morning. As the low pressure ejects towards the
northeast...the unsettled weather pattern will finally come to an
end bringing high pressure back over the state. This will promote
calm and dry conditions by Thursday afternoon through the weekend.

With that said, Wednesday night into Thursday morning heavy rain
will continue over already saturated grounds (previous rain in the
short term). An additional half inch to inch will be possible over
central and southern portions of the state with lesser amounts
across northern Arkansas.

Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average
across the state during the period. High temperatures will be in the
mid 60s to mid 70s early...rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s by
the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 40s to
upper 50s through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

VFR conds were prevailing at Cntrl and Nrn sites ahead of a deck
of low stratus lifting to the N along and parallel to a warm
front. Further S, at KPBF and KLLQ, MVFR conds were already ongoing.
CIGs are expected to become MVFR, then IFR at all locations as
SHRA/TSRA move into the region from the S. This activity is
expected to continue through much of the TAF period, with
potential breaks in activity during the late morning hours on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  68  58  67 /  90  90 100  90
Camden AR         61  71  61  71 /  90  90 100 100
Harrison AR       56  69  55  63 /  70  60  70  80
Hot Springs AR    59  67  59  69 / 100  90 100 100
Little Rock   AR  63  70  62  71 / 100 100 100 100
Monticello AR     63  73  65  72 / 100  90 100 100
Mount Ida AR      58  68  58  68 / 100  90 100 100
Mountain Home AR  57  70  55  64 /  70  80  80  80
Newport AR        61  67  60  67 /  90  90 100  90
Pine Bluff AR     62  71  61  71 / 100 100 100 100
Russellville AR   59  70  58  68 /  90  80  90  90
Searcy AR         60  68  58  69 /  90  90 100  90
Stuttgart AR      62  69  62  70 / 100 100 100 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ052>057-062>069.

&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
308 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-090815-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
308 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of
southern Arkansas later this evening. Heavy to excessive rainfall
is forecast overnight tonight, with flash flooding potential
increasing through the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional chances for some strong or severe storms will exist
across parts of central to southern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Multiple days of heavy rainfall will also be a concern,
with flash flooding and river flooding possible across portions
of southern Arkansas Tuesday through Thursday. Winds are expected
to increase across much of the state from Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning. N-NW winds could gust between 30-40 mph
at times.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

72/67

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