Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Lubbock, TX

270 
WWUS54 KLUB 040050
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
750 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TXC345-040100-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240504T0145Z/
Motley TX-
750 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOTLEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10049 3443 10075 3475 10056 3475 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 216DEG 27KT 3447 10058 

$$

TXC075-191-040145-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240504T0145Z/
Childress TX-Hall TX-
750 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS AND EASTERN HALL COUNTIES...

At 750 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Tell, or 18 miles south of Memphis, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Memphis, Estelline, and Plaska Community.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10049 3443 10075 3475 10056 3475 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 216DEG 27KT 3447 10058 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

01

471 
WWUS54 KLUB 040056 RRA
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
756 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TXC075-191-040106-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-240504T0145Z/
Childress TX-Hall TX-
756 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS AND
EASTERN HALL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10049 3443 10075 3475 10056 3475 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 216DEG 27KT 3451 10054 

$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this
afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle.
The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area
this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly
warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain
much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong
differential heating boundary present across the area today and will
be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM
CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to
Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee
cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east
of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite
imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the
southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already
begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In
addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the
dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present
east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+
J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is
capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to
baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two
is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains
where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low
level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm
splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast,
potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These
right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado,
especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms
will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower
storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized
flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the
forecast area late this evening before Midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind
a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring
sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time
to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is
expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern
South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an
upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially
severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats
include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding.
While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled
out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area
by midnight.

The active weather seen over the past several days will finally
begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the
region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return
of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving
precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored
at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such,
any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow
pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and
dry conditions to prevail through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has cleared PVW but is still in the vicinity at LBB and
CDS. Storms will push east of LBB over the next 1-2 hour but will
be possible at CDS through at least 04Z. At current the main
hazards will be wind gusts to 60 knots and hail over 2 inches. IFR
CIGs have sneaked in to PVW over the past half hour but is
expected to increase VFR within the next 1-2 hours. CIGs will
lower to at least MVFR shortly after 12Z tomorrow morning at all
terminals and remain through most of the day tomorrow. Showers and
thunderstorms are also likely at all terminals towards the end of
this TAF cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
520 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     Tornado          3 NNE Hale Center       34.11N 101.83W
05/03/2024                   Hale               TX   Trained Spotter

            Brief tornado touchdown north-northeast of
            Hale Center.

&&

DWK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
643 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Hail             Dickens                 33.62N 100.84W
05/03/2024  E2.00 Inch       Dickens            TX   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
730 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Hail             Quitaque                34.37N 101.06W
05/03/2024  E3.50 Inch       Briscoe            TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Quitaque VFD reports hailstones ranging from
            2.25 to 3.5 inches in diameter.

&&

DWK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
733 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Hail             2 WSW Afton             33.75N 100.84W
05/03/2024  E0.75 Inch       Dickens            TX   Public

            Time estimated from radar.

&&

DWK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
736 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Hail             5 NW Matador            34.07N 100.88W
05/03/2024  E1.50 Inch       Motley             TX   Public

            Ping pong ball size hail found on the side
            of the road between Matador and Whiteflat.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

DWK