Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A complex of thunderstorms are currently ongoing as of 1:30 pm
across the eastern Rolling Plains. This activity was generated from
a southwestward moving outflow boundary that was located along a
line from near Guthrie to Floydada to Tulia. The eastern portion of
the boundary should continue to shift southward as it is reinforced
by the ongoing thunderstorms while the western portion of this
boundary appears to be fairly stationary now as the temperature
gradient is fairly small. West of this boundary surface moisture has
been stubborn to mix out with upper 60s to lower 70s being observed
across the eastern South Plains. Even farther west a dryline is
beginning to sharpen near the state line and will quickly mix east
to near the Highway 385 corridor. Both of these boundaries are
expected to have convective initiation along them this afternoon as
a shortwave swings over the forecast area within an environment that
will be conducive for supercells. MLCAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg
are present across most of the forecast area (west of the outflow
boundary) with effective bulk shear values of 35-40 kts. The
profiles are supportive of supercells however with the very unstable
airmass numerous thunderstorms should develop (as is being seen
across the Rolling Plains) which would interfere with storm
organization. However, if a storm can remain discrete very large
hail in excess of tennis ball size would be possible along with
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Additionally, if a discrete storm
becomes established on the outflow boundary, a few tornadoes would
also be possible. Eventually a cold pool should strengthen so that
storm mode becomes more linear as it shifts east across the Rolling
Plains this evening with the primary concern being damaging wind
gusts up to 80 mph. This activity may also produce heavy rainfall
which may lead to localized flash flooding especially across the
Rolling Plains where the heaviest rainfall has fallen over the past
several days. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end early
Monday morning. Some patchy fog may be possible Monday morning
especially for locations that see heavier rainfall this evening.

Surface troughing will strengthen across eastern New Mexico tomorrow
with a stronger westerly flow. This will shift the dryline east into
the Rolling Plains by the late afternoon. This drier air and
downsloping westerly winds will cause high temperatures to climb 5-
15 degrees warmer than today with upper 90s to the lower 100s.
Strong capping will be in place across our forecast area and with
limited upper-level support this cap is expected to hold strong
through the afternoon therefore have left the area dry for tomorrow
afternoon however the strength of the cap will need to be watched
with subsequent updates. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue for Tuesday with rising upper
heights and warm southwesterly surface winds. Triple-digit high
temperatures are expected across much of the area. A weak cold front
will move through Tuesday evening. This will only slightly cool
temperatures with highs still reaching the mid 90s. The next
meaningful chance of showers and thunderstorms will be towards
the end of the week with the combination of a more moist ESE flow
and upper waves propagating across the area. Storm chances look to
persist into the weekend, however it remains too early to
determine specific details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Convection will be possible at all terminals through at least 03Z.
The main threats will be damaging winds over 65 knots and hail
over 3 inches in diameter. Conditions could drop to IFR in these
storms. VFR conditions will privily outside of convection. Some
light fog will be possible again tomorrow morning between 10-15Z,
but VIS is expected to remain above 3SM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51

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