High Wind Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Wrap-around snow moving southward across northeastern New Mexico
and the western Panhandle has gotten to Friona in the form of
flurries with some heavier snow not too far upstream. Models have
been in good agreement with bringing potential for measurable
snowfall to the northwestern zones this afternoon, and with radar
and obs now confirming, have increased precip chances roughly from
Muleshoe to Plainview and points northward. However, there is not
change in thought with regard to amounts. Most likely amounts are
an inch or less. Will need to watch temperatures and whether that
will impact ability for snow to stick. Initial cold advection
behind the Canadian cold front is noticable with a drop in
temperature at Friona from 34 to 29, and a prolonged period of mid
to upper 20s and heavier than anticipated snowfall would prompt
the need for a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon. For now
will old off such issuance and continue to monitor trends early
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

As of 08z the center of the upper-level low was moving into north-
central New Mexico. Lift associated with this system is beginning to
increase across the forecast area as a band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms has developed and is quickly moving to the east. THe
main concern with this line would be occasional cloud-to-ground
lightning along with the potential for a few stronger wind gusts as
winds a few thousand feet above the ground are around 55 kts this
morning. This broken line should exit the forecast area by sunrise
this morning as the dry slot moves over the forecast area. This will
lead to clearing skies by mid-morning as a Pacific cold front sweeps
east. Behind this front, westerly winds will quickly ramp up with
sustained winds of 30-40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. These strong
winds should lead to patchy blowing dust mainly on the Caprock by
this afternoon. As the upper-low lifts into the northeastern Texas
Panhandle this afternoon stronger northwesterly winds aloft will
develop on the back side of the low. There continues to remain a
small window between 4 pm and 7 pm that a few 60+ mph wind gusts
could be mixed to the surface across the Caprock and far southern
Texas Panhandle. Since this window is rather small and confidence in
widespread High Wind conditions remains below 80% have opted to go
with a Wind Advisory area wide from late this morning through early
Tuesday morning.

The other concern that is increasing this morning is a narrow
focused band of snow that may develop across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle around noon and last into the afternoon. Convergence
along the leading edge of a southward moving jet maximum between 850
mb and 700 mb in combination with the far southern edge of the
TROWAL should lead to a mesoscale band of snow somewhere across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle. Confidence on exactly where this band
will develop remains low at this time however most high-resolution
guidance has come on board with the development of the band which
could quickly drop a few inches of snow. Based on the uncertainty of
exactly where this band will develop have decided against issuing
any winter weather highlights at this time. However, where the band
develops blizzard conditions would be possible for a few hours and
ultimately a Snow Squall Warning or other winter weather headline
may be required. As the low continues to lift northeast this band
should dissipate leaving the remainder of the forecast area dry.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will begin to
drop. This means that most locations have already experienced their
high temperature for the day. Skies will begin to clear this evening
and with strong cold air advection continuing, temperatures will
quickly drop into the teens and 20s by early Tuesday morning. If any
roads remain wet tonight from the morning rain some black ice would
be possible Tuesday morning. The strong winds will gradually
diminish overnight however they will remain strong enough to drop
wind chill values into the single digits and teens. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Cold air advection on the backside of the system moving through our
area today will keep high temperatures tomorrow about 5-10 degrees
below normal. After a blustery start to the day winds will gradually
ease through the morning into the afternoon. Surface winds will
eventually become westerly by late afternoon setting the stage for a
nice warm up Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly zonal flow aloft
Wednesday into early Thursday, will eventually transition to H50
height falls as a progressive trough shifts east across our region
late Thursday through Friday morning. A surface cold front
associated with the passage of the upper level trough will drop
temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning down into the teens
and 20s area wide. A limited amount of shallow moisture with the
passage of the cold front may produce a brief window of rain and
snow late Thursday night into early Friday morning, with limited to
no impacts expected. Long wave synoptic pattern settles down behind
the trough with a steady fetch of cooler air aloft with persistent
northwest flow over the area through the weekend, resulting in
below normal temperatures into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Wind is the biggest issue for the terminals through the TAF
period with strong west, then northwest, winds expected the entire
TAF period as a strong storm system moves across the Texas
Panhandle today and western Oklahoma tonight. There could be a
period of MVFR ceilings and snow flurries at KPVW and KCDS later
today/this evening. Confidence is higher in the more high-impact
ceilings and have inserted a fairly brief TEMPO group to account
for that possibility.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
358 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

TXZ021>044-091000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
358 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong west to northwest winds will develop today and persist into
early Tuesday morning as a storm system moves across the southern
High Plains. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire area
from 10 am this morning through early Tuesday morning for sustained
winds of 30-40 mph and gusts up to 55 mph.

A narrow band of moderate snow is expected to develop somewhere over
the southwestern Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. Blizzard
conditions may be possible for a few hours however confidence in
where exactly this band will develop remains uncertain as of early
this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1022 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 SSW Graham            33.08N 101.52W
01/08/2024  M59 MPH          Garza              TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet.

&&

CR

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