Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

  - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 6 PM this
    evening to 6 AM Monday.

  - Widespread moderate to heavy rain will affected the region
    late today through early Monday, with flash flooding possible.

  - A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern South and
    Rolling Plains from 9 AM to 5 PM Monday.

  - A First Freeze is likely for much of the South Plains area
    early Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the southern South and Rolling
Plains for tomorrow from 15Z-23Z (9 AM to 5 PM CST) due to the
expectation of sustained, westerly winds increasing to 25-35 mph
with gusts to 45 mph following the passage of the Pacific cold
front. Please read the short term discussion below for additional
information as the forecast remains on track otherwise.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

A heavy rain event remains on track for tonight as a storm system
tracks pretty quickly to the east-northeast from its position over
Sonora this afternoon to the southeastern tip of New Mexico by 12Z
Monday. Area radars are already showing an increase in echoes aloft
as difluence increases ahead of the upper low, although there is
still a dry sub-cloud layer to overcome. That layer should become
saturated by sunset this evening with an increase in precipitation
reaching the ground late this afternoon. An indication of the
strength of the low and to some degree the presence of instability
aloft it periodic lightning across south-central New Mexico this
afternoon. The heavy rain potential increases later this evening as
the main lift associated with the upper low moves over the forecast
area. Indications still suggest widespread 1"+ amounts with at least
one band of 2"-4" amounts likely setting up across the forecast area
as progged MUCAPE amounts increase to 500-1000 J/kg helping unlock
the very high amounts of precipitable water. The largest amount
instability is likely to be across the southeastern third of the
forecast area where some water loading could lead to some strong to
marginally severe wind gusts overnight despite storms remaining
elevated in nature.

The dry slot will then work northeastward on the east and south
flanks of the upper low as it moves past Childress by noon Monday,
although a fair amount of stratus and shower activity likely wraps
around the north flank of the low and eventually around to its west
side. A tight surface pressure gradient will result in an increase
in wind speeds, in particular once the dry slot works northeastward
with west and eventually northwest winds pushing toward Advisory
criteria, i.e., 30 mph, especially south and west of a Morton to
Aspermont line.

Both low and high temperatures will be a bit tricky, the former due
to rainfall and associated cooling and the latter with amount of
insolation Monday and amount of low level cold advection once winds
veer to northwest. For now NBM looks pretty reasonable and will run
with it for this forecast cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Westerly breezes will diminish Monday evening while shifting to
the northwest behind a weak front. It will be cooler, but not
cold, overnight as drier air works in from the higher terrain.
Tuesday will be breezy with temps near mid-Nov norms with highs
mainly in the 60s. The passing of another weak shortwave through
the Central Plains will send a cold front through the area Tuesday
night, with a cool surface high about 1030 mb briefly settling in
over West Texas Wednesday morning. This should bring sub-freezing
temps to most of the Caprock and adjacent Rolling Plains early
Wednesday, although the strength of the cold advection has waned
some in the last few model runs. Still, the combination of dry
air, light winds and clear skies should bring most of the area to
near freezing or a bit below, with much of the southwest Texas
Panhandle and northwest South Plains in the 20s.

The surface ridge should shift into Central Texas Wednesday with
southerly flow returning to West Texas by late in day. Wednesday
will likely be the coolest day in the week with highs in the 50s
and low 60s. After another cool start Thursday morning, a warming
trend commences with highs back in the 70s by Saturday along with
dry conditions. There are some indications a cold front could
pass though on Sunday but at this time it looks like not a very
significant one with the storm track displaced well to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Poor flying conditions will exist through the nighttime hours.
Moderate to heavy rainfall will persist at all terminals through
at least 10Z and will keep CIGs IFR to LIFR while VIS will
fluctuate between IFR and VFR. conditions will likely improve to
VFR after 14Z when winds over 25 knots will be expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM CST Monday for TXZ033>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
949 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

TXZ021>044-190400-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
949 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the far southern South
Plains and the southeastern Rolling Plains until 4 AM CST Monday
morning. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the primary
hazard.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and southern Texas Panhandle from 6 PM today to 6 AM Monday.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain will develop over West Texas this
evening and continue into early Monday morning, before shifting to
the east by daybreak. Where the heaviest rain falls, flash flooding
of urban and poor drainage areas is likely. In addition, strong wind
gusts, in excess of 50 mph, may accompany the most intense
thunderstorms, primarily off the Caprock after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Wind Advisory is in effect between 9 AM and 5 PM CST Monday for
the southern South and Rolling Plains. Sustained, westerly winds
between 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will develop following
the passage of the Pacific cold front late tomorrow morning.

A first freeze is likely for much of the South Plains on Wednesday
morning.