Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS St. Louis, MO

451 
WWUS53 KLSX 260322
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

MOC103-260345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-240626T0345Z/
Knox MO-
1022 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR KNOX COUNTY...

At 1022 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brashear,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Edina, Knox City, Plevna, Colony, Hurdland, Novelty, and Newark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 9195 3995 9195 3996 9234 4016 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 320DEG 26KT 4017 9232 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Maples

433 
WWUS53 KLSX 260335
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

MOC103-260345-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-240626T0345Z/
Knox MO-
1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KNOX COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1045 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 9195 3995 9195 3996 9234 4016 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 320DEG 26KT 4010 9225 

$$

Maples

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Initial complex of storms has moved into the southern periphery of
the forecast area this afternoon with a large area of stratiform
rain and clouds behind it. While additional storms have formed
over Iowa and are trying to sink southward, they will be running
into air which has already been worked over with little chance for
recovery. The most likely scenario remaining for the overnight is
storms over Nebraska and western Iowa congealing into an MCS and
pushing southward through western and central Missouri overnight.
This would still pose a threat for damaging winds overnight, but
this threat has shifted a bit west from earlier expectations due
to the effects of the earlier convection today.

Kimble

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat will continue through early this
  evening for portions of the area, as heat index values climb to
  around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through
  this evening where confidence is highest in these values and
  impacts.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening
  and/or overnight. A few of these storms may become strong to
  severe, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A cold front is currently stretched west to east across Iowa and far
northern Illinois. Convection just ahead of the front from this
morning has maintained itself into the afternoon and formed several
outflow boundaries that are moving southward over the CWA. South of
the front and outflows is a hot airmass with widespread temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s, with locations within the St. Louis metro
currently around 100 degrees. With dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s, this heat has yielded 3,000+ J/kg of SBCAPE per recent SPC
mesoanalysis. While this amount of instability ahead of outflow
boundaries and among ongoing convection is concerning, 0-6 km bulk
shear remains relatively weak (20 kts or less), leading to updrafts
being mostly short-lived baring an organized cold pool. Given the
inverted "V" seen in local soundings among models and ACARS out of
Lambert Airport (KSTL), damaging wind gusts continue to be the
primary concern with any convection this afternoon. While severe
hail (1" in diameter) is possible, the freezing level and warm low-
level temperatures will likely make it quite difficult for severe-
size hail stones to reach the surface. This threat will be mostly
confined to west-central Illinois in the near this afternoon.

A complicated convective scenario remains for this evening and
tonight across the area. Currently, a weak shortwave/MCV is drifting
eastward toward the CWA across western Missouri. There is a low
chance that this feature may produce isolated convection across
portions of central and eastern Missouri late this afternoon and
evening, and if this occurs, the primary threat would be damaging
wind gusts. Additional convection is expected along the cold front
later tonight as it sags further southward toward the area.
Instability will have decreased, but still be on the order of
around 1,500 J/kg for MUCAPE. Shear will remain weaker at around 20
kts, leading to multicell convection that CAMs show congealing
across Iowa and moving south-southeastward toward the CWA as an MCS.
This round of convection has the greatest chance to be strong to
severe where it tracks, with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts. CAMs have varied with the track and timing of this MCS,
though at least have been consistently trending slower with the
system. Current thinking is that it will move into the CWA around
3am and exit through Wednesday morning.

The front will slowly move through and exit the CWA in the wake of
the convection tomorrow morning, with northerly low-level flow
advecting cooler air into the CWA. This, paired with lingering cloud
cover for portions of the area, will keep temperatures relatively
cooler CWA-wide, with afternoon temperatures remaining in the mid to
upper-80s.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The consensus among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance is
that upper-level ridging will gradually build back into the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. As a result, high pressure at the
surface will shift eastward, causing low-level flow to become
increasingly southerly-southeasterly. While the more
southeasterly component of the winds does not support robust warm-
air advection, a majority of global ensemble members show 850 mb
temperatures rising by a couple of degrees through the day,
climatologically favoring a slight bump in temperatures at the
surface compared to Wednesday mainly along and south of I-70.

The upper-level ridge builds further into the region on Friday as a
trough digs across the Northern Plains. Upper-level flow over the
Middle Mississippi Valley will become increasingly southwesterly,
and the previously mentioned surface high will continue to shift
eastward. Low-level flow will become more southerly, advecting
warmer air into the region and pushing 850 mb temperatures to at
least 20 degrees C (roughly the 25th percentile of ensemble
guidance). The result will be a return of surface temperatures in
the low to mid-90s. However, a potential limiting factor to this
heat is convection during the day associated with a shortwave
traversing the northern periphery of the ridge. If this convection
and/or convective debris passes through the CWA, we could see
resulting temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than currently forecast.

Guidance consensus is that a cold front associated with the main
upper-level trough will move through the region sometime Saturday as
the trough traverses the Upper-Midwest. At this lead time, spread is
understandably large in the timing of this front. If the front is
quicker, temperatures on Saturday may only top out in the low to mid-
80s. If the front is slower, temperatures may reach the low to mid-
90s. Regardless, quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft and
northerly surface flow behind the front will keep temperatures
cooler for at least Sunday before ridging builds back in to the
region early next week, marking the return of a period of heat.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered thunderstorms and numerous outflow boundaries are
ongoing across the region, and these will impact all local
terminals through the first couple of hours of the forecast
period. After a lull in convection this evening, another
thunderstorm complex is expected tonight; however, there is still
uncertainty in its exact path and timing. The current timing in
the TAFs represents when confidence is greatest, but early or
later timing is possible. Once the storm complex moves through,
low stratus is expected to impact KUIN, KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS. As a
cold front moves through the area, this will help push the stratus
out and bring VFR flight conditions to the local terminals.

Elmore

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot temperatures forecast, here are some of the daily high
temperature records:

            MON JUN 24     TUE JUN 25
ST LOUIS    102 in 1988    102 in 1954
COLUMBIA    103 in 1988    102 in 1988
QUINCY       99 in 1988    102 in 1931

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
339 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-262045-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
339 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are producing heat index values of 105 and
higher across parts of central and eastern Missouri as well as
southwest Illinois. Please see the Heat Advisory product for details.

Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the area through tonight.
A few storms will be capable of primarily damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms across portions of the area
Wednesday morning and at times Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of wind damage or
hail to NWS St. Louis.

Elmore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     Hail             10 NNW Monticello       40.24N 91.80W
06/25/2024  E2.00 Inch       Lewis              MO   Trained Spotter

            Broke windshields in Williamstown.

&&

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
725 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Rush Hill          39.16N 91.68W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   Public

            Tree over Highway 54.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
727 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Martinsburg             39.10N 91.65W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   County Official

            Downed power pole.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 ENE Garwood           37.09N 90.79W
06/25/2024                   Reynolds           MO   Utility Company

            Couple of trees down on highway 34 at the
            Reynolds-Wayne County line.

&&

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
926 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Wellsville              39.07N 91.57W
06/25/2024                   Montgomery         MO   Amateur Radio

            5 inch tree limbs down. No power in town.

0546 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Columbia          38.90N 92.31W
06/25/2024                   Boone              MO   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down and power lines across the
            county.

0518 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Vandalia                39.31N 91.49W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   911 Call Center

            A few large mature trees blown down. Several
            tree limbs have knocked down power lines.

0540 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Laddonia                39.24N 91.65W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   Local Official

            Roof blown off trailer. Tree limbs blown
            down.

0556 PM     Flood            3 S Vandalia            39.27N 91.48W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   Amateur Radio

            Water on Highway W south of Vandalia.

0602 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SW Benton City        39.08N 91.83W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   Amateur Radio

            Siding reported blown off a church 5 miles
            south of the Mexico Airport.

0602 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Mexico             39.18N 91.88W
06/25/2024                   Audrain            MO   Public

            Large tree down on Jefferson Street. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
958 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     Hail             1 N Creve Coeur         38.68N 90.44W
06/25/2024  M0.75 Inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

0459 PM     Hail             2 N Creve Coeur         38.69N 90.44W
06/25/2024  E0.75 Inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0500 PM     Hail             2 NE Creve Coeur        38.69N 90.42W
06/25/2024  E0.50 Inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0917 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Marquand                37.43N 90.17W
06/25/2024                   Madison            MO   911 Call Center

            Trees down and power out in Marquand.

0604 PM     Hail             2 NW Barnhart           38.36N 90.42W
06/25/2024  M0.50 Inch       Jefferson          MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0736 PM     Rain             3 NW Jefferson City     38.61N 92.23W
06/25/2024  M1.00 Inch       Cole               MO   Public

0538 PM     Hail             1 N Columbia            38.47N 90.22W
06/25/2024  M0.50 Inch       Monroe             IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0120 PM     Hail             1 SE Mount Sterling     39.97N 90.75W
06/25/2024  E0.50 Inch       Brown              IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0230 PM     Hail             Mound Station           40.01N 90.87W
06/25/2024  M1.00 Inch       Brown              IL   Public

0638 PM     Hail             2 SE Quincy             39.90N 91.37W
06/25/2024  E0.75 Inch       Adams              IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0644 PM     Hail             2 SE Quincy             39.91N 91.38W
06/25/2024  E0.25 Inch       Adams              IL   Public

&&