Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Significant severe thunderstorms are likely through this evening,
along and south of I-70. The main threats are very large hail (2"+),
damaging winds (70-80+ mph), and strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher).

-Locally heavy rainfall, up to 2-5 inches, is possible with this
round of storms.

-Dry and mild weather expected through the work week with
 temperatures near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Latest visible satellite and radar imagery indicates that a cu
field is developing between I-70 and I-44, as well as scattered
storms as of 20z. In the meantime, strong heating is occurring in
this area with steep LR (8-8.5C/km), MU CAPEs 2000-3000 J/kg, as
well as decent deep layer shear (50-60kts). So thunderstorms will
continue to develop in this area within the strongly sheared
environment. Supercells will be the dominant convective mode then
transition to a more linear structure as the activity exits the
forecast area later this evening. There is a risk for all severe
hazards including very large hail (2"+), damaging winds (70-80+
mph) and strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher), especially along and
south of I-70.

Otherwise, there is still the possibility of locally heavy rainfall
as the storms move through. With west-east shear parallel to the
outflow boundary, could see training storms through this evening.
The latest HREF probability matched mean indicates the potential for
rainfall up to 2" over a 3 hour period. Areas that have already seen
modest rainfall in the past two days will be at higher risk for
flash flooding. So the Flood Watch remains in effect until 06z
Monday.

Surface ridge will build in behind the cold front late tonight with
dry and pleasant weather returning on Monday. Lows tonight will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s. In the meantime, a secondary shortwave
will rotate around the system and sink southeast through the
forecast area during the day on Monday. Will see increasing cu
field, but the best chances for showers will be just north of the
forecast area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while
troughing lingers over the eastern half. Therefore the forecast
area will be in northwest flow aloft with temperatures a bit below
normal through the end of the work week. Otherwise, the pattern
begins to change late in the work week with chances of rain
returning by next weekend.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Morning activity now well east of TAF sites. Still expect another
round of showers and storms will develop, mainly along and south
of I-70. So kept KUIN dry and VFR. Otherwise, for TAF sites along
I-70 have vicinity thunderstorm mention. For KCOU and KJEF it
will be between 18z Sunday and 01z Monday, then for St. Louis
metro area TAFs between 21z Sunday and 03z Monday, tapering off
once cold front moves through region.

As for the winds, gusty south to southwest winds will veer to the
northwest behind the cold front and diminish.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton
     IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
     Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair
     IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
419 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-272130-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
419 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected through this evening with significant
severe storms possible. Damaging winds up to 80 mph, large hail up to
two inches in diameter, strong tornadoes, and flash flooding are the
primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Spotters are encouraged to
report any severe weather, if observed, to the National Weather
Service.

Byrd

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
501 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     Hail             2 ESE Saint Charles     38.78N 90.48W
05/26/2024  E1.50 Inch       St. Charles        MO   Public

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
502 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             2 E Saint Charles       38.79N 90.48W
05/26/2024  M2.50 Inch       St. Charles        MO   Trained Spotter

&&

MAB