Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
636 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms will continue to develop through this evening with
 some strong to severe storms possible and capable of primarily
 large hail and damaging winds with a low threat of tornadoes.

-Severe thunderstorms are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning
 and possibly again during the afternoon/evening, with large
 hail, damaging winds, and a tornado possible.

-Next week will usher in a pattern change toward drier, more
 seasonal weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Storms continue to develop along and north of an outflow boundary
that stretches from north-central Missouri, where it intersects
with a cold front, southeastward into southwestern Illinois.
Forecast soundings in this area show that a very unstable airmass
with ML CAPEs 3000-4000 J/kg, ML LR of 7-8C/km and effective shear
of 35 to 50 kts will support organized storms, including
supercells and severe multicells, with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats, though can't rule out a tornado or two as
well. Also, the latest HRRR indicates mean PWs around 1.5" and the
potential for back-building convection north of St. Louis that
could result in excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr, so flash
flood warnings may be needed.

Otherwise, the front will continue to move east through this evening
and convection will gradually diminish and weaken. The cold front
will exit the forecast area by 07z Saturday.

As a surface ridge builds into the region on Saturday, it will be
the pick day of the holiday weekend. Sunny, dry and warm conditions
expected with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

In the meantime, the upper level trough over the western CONUS will
begin to lift out towards the Great Lakes. As the associated surface
low deepens in the lee of the Rockies and accompanying warm front
lifts northward, convection will initiate on the nose of a strong
low level jet (50-60kts) Saturday evening as moist, unstable air
surges into the central Plains. Then as the low level jet veers over
time, the MCS that develops over northern KS will slide east across
the area. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm
front/convection due to discrepancies among the deterministic as
well as ensemble models. For now stuck with the latest NBM solution
which has the best chances of rain along and north of I-70 late
Saturday night through Sunday. As for any strong to severe storms,
the best location will be along the southern periphery of the
complex where the strongest instability/shear will be (MU CAPEs
between 2000-3000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 40-50kts), with all
hazards possible. Once the complex moves through, there is still
some uncertainty on afternoon/evening redevelopment depending on how
much the atmosphere can recover, where any outflow boundary sets up
and timing of the main cold front. So for now feel that the best
time for severe weather will be with the complex late Saturday night
through Sunday morning, though can't rule out additional strong to
severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Next Friday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

As the system exits the region, the showers and storms will taper
off from west to east by late Sunday night. Another shortwave
will rotate around the surface low over the Great Lakes region.
This will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
Monday afternoon. Then for the remainder of the forecast period,
upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS with a trough
in the east, so forecast area will remain in northwest flow aloft.
Thus temperatures will be a bit below normal with dry weather
through Thursday before the pattern begins to change late in the
work week.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front beginning to move through the region. As of 23z, the
front has moved through KCOU and KUIN and will be through KJEF by
00z Saturday. The front will move through St. Louis metro area TAF
sites by 02z-03z Saturday. In the meantime, storms will be moving
through the metro area, so kept MVFR visibilities until front
moves through. Otherwise, winds will veer to the west to northwest
behind the front and gradually diminish. As ridge builds in,
winds will become light and variable most locations.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
356 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-252100-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
356 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely across the forecast area through this
evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible and capable of
primarily large hail and damaging winds with a low threat of
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday night.
A few thunderstorms may become severe late Saturday night into Sunday
morning and possibly again during the afternoon/evening, with large
hail, damaging winds, and a tornado possible across the forecast
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, if observed,
to the National Weather Service.

Byrd

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
431 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     Hail             5 WSW Mount Sterling    38.43N 91.70W
05/24/2024  E1.75 Inch       Osage              MO   Amateur Radio

            Corrects previous hail report from 5 WSW
            Mount Sterling. Photo of estimated golf ball
            size hail. Time estimated from radar.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
507 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Kemper            39.24N 90.18W
05/24/2024                   Jersey             IL   CO-OP Observer

            Tommy Ruyle reported water crossing the road
            at multiple locations along Illinois Route
            267 between Medora and Greenfield.

&&

MF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
537 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Hail             Mount Olive             39.08N 89.73W
05/24/2024  M1.50 Inch       Macoupin           IL   Trained Spotter

&&

MAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
703 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     Flash Flood      Carrollton              39.30N 90.41W
05/24/2024                   Greene             IL   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roads under deep water across the
            county, but particularly around Carrollton.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
750 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Rain             1 NNW Litchfield        39.19N 89.66W
05/24/2024  M7.60 Inch       Montgomery         IL   Emergency Mngr

            Storm total so far.

&&

AE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
806 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Sterling          38.47N 91.62W
05/24/2024                   Gasconade          MO   Public

            Public reported relayed through media. Tree
            branches and a few trees down. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&