Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS St. Louis, MO

557 
WWUS53 KLSX 220413
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1113 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MOC093-123-187-220445-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-240522T0445Z/
Iron MO-Madison MO-St. Francois MO-
1113 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL IRON...NORTHERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST.
FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 1113 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Glover, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericktown, Junction City, Cobalt, Knob Lick, Mine La Motte,
Libertyville, and Catherine Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 9068 3775 9030 3767 9020 3770 9016
      3767 9011 3767 9012 3764 9015 3752 9014
      3739 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 238DEG 48KT 3747 9056 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

431 
WWUS53 KLSX 220421
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1121 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MOC093-220430-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-240522T0445Z/
Iron MO-
1121 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL IRON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 9055 3775 9030 3767 9020 3770 9016
      3767 9011 3764 9015 3752 9014 3742 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 238DEG 48KT 3753 9045 

$$

MOC123-187-220445-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-240522T0445Z/
Madison MO-St. Francois MO-
1121 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 1120 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Roselle,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericktown, Junction City, Cobalt, Knob Lick, Mine La Motte,
Libertyville, and Catherine Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 9055 3775 9030 3767 9020 3770 9016
      3767 9011 3764 9015 3752 9014 3742 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 238DEG 48KT 3753 9045 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

203 
WWUS53 KLSX 220429
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1129 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MOC123-187-220445-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-240522T0445Z/
Madison MO-St. Francois MO-
1129 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 1129 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Junction City,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericktown, Junction City, Cobalt, Mine La Motte, and Catherine
Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 9044 3772 9026 3767 9020 3770 9016
      3767 9011 3764 9015 3755 9014 3749 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 238DEG 48KT 3760 9032 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

033 
WWUS53 KLSX 220435
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1135 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MOC123-187-220445-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-240522T0445Z/
Madison MO-St. Francois MO-
1135 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI WILL
EXPIRE AT 1145 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 9044 3772 9026 3767 9020 3770 9016
      3767 9011 3764 9015 3755 9014 3749 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 238DEG 48KT 3763 9025 

$$

Elmore

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1059 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thus far the anticipated severe weather has not materialized as
anticipated and advertised much of the day by the majority of the
CAMS with the lack of a line of severe storms/supercells. Overall
it appears at the least the intensity and coverage of severe will
be less than previously thought. The latest ACARS soundings from
St. Louis are showing a warm layer aloft and we are speculating
that the elevated showers and storms now between St. Louis and
Columbia could erode that warm layer and result in an improving
environment for severe storms, especially the severe cluster north
of Lake of the Ozarks that is moving east-northeast. The CAPE and
shear distribution ahead of the advancing cold front will
continue to support severe potential ahead of the front. We have
been updating our messaging to imply severe storms will be more
scattered in coverage. We have also toned down our wording from
the higher-end threats, and believe our threats with any severe
storms are damaging winds of 60-70 mph, hail to the size of
golfballs, and isolated tornadoes. The severe threat should wind
down greatly by midnight.

Glass

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight, mainly
  during the evening. The primary severe threats are damaging
  winds of 60-70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls, and isolated
  tornadoes.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances will be focused south of I-70
  on Wednesday as a cold front settles into southward. A few
  severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across southeast
  Missouri and southwest Illinois in the afternoon and evening.

- Unsettled weather will dominate the from Thursday through the
  Memorial Day weekend with frequent chances for showers and
  thunderstorms, and normal to above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

It is the waiting game at this hour early this afternoon.
instability continues to grow with heating, and most of the CWA
is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/KG but capped as well
with a decent warm layer above 850 mb. An axis of very unstable
air and MLCAPE of 3000+ J/KG focused ahead of the cold front
across eastern KS into far NW will be the genesis zone and the
latest GOES imagery is already showing deepening convective
cu/towers and storm initiation. Thunderstorms should erupt from NW
MO into far eastern KS within the next few hours and favorable
deep layer shear of 55+ kts and the aforementioned CAPE suggests
they will quickly become severe with supercells favored. The
supercell storms will move quickly east-northeast and should grow
in coverage into a broken line, tracking into central and
northeast MO in the 6-8 pm time frame. This line will then track
quickly to the east- southeast through the evening with MLCAPE
values of 2000+ and robust deep layer shear maintaining the severe
threat across the ENTIRE AREA until it exits the CWA in southeast
MO and far southwest IL near 06-07z. Deep layer shear vectors
have a fairly large orthogonal component to the advancing cold
front/forcing suggesting that the line should at least be composed
of semi- discrete supercells into late evening with merger
potential suggesting localized upscale growth in severe bowing
line segments/clusters. All severe weather hazards will be
possible throughout the CWA, but the greatest potential for high-
end severe weather including very large hail greater than 2 inches
in diameter, wind gusts possibly of 80+ mph, and tornadoes
including a strong tornado will reside this evening across central
and northeast MO and west-central IL. In this area the
instability will be greatest during the duration of the event and
there is a short window of slightly better low-level hodograph
curvature. The low-level winds veer through the evening
diminishing hodograph curvature and resulting in more of a
straight-line profile in the low-levels which is less favorable in
general for supercell tornadoes, unless good deviant motion
occurs. 0-3km shear vectors would also support tornado potential
with linear structures and QLCS processes as well.

The cold front will settle into southern MO and southern IL on
Wednesday. A well-defined progressive short wave trof will move
through the mid-upper MS Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening
and this will aid in showers and thunderstorms generally focused
south of I-70 and especially across southeast MO and southern IL
in proximity to the frontal zone. While there appears to be some
severe potential in the afternoon and evening, the greatest
instability is forecast at this time to reside south of the CWA
and this would suggest that is where the greatest severe threat
will be favored as well. Wednesday will also be 10-15 degrees
cooler with the area largely in the post-frontal air mass.

Glass

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist into early next week with
progressive west-southwest flow aloft forecast. While there
continue to be some differences in the guidance suite with
details, this flow regime will be feature periodic shortwaves
tracking within the flow and traversing the area and frontal
boundaries attendant with them wavering north to south and across
the area. This will result in frequent shower and thunderstorm
chances, however dry time will be frequent as well. Currently
Friday and Sunday have the greatest precipitation potential but
not all day rains. High temperatures are a bit uncertain and
could vary depending on clouds and timing of the rain. Our current
forecast is a bit cooler than the previous one and generally lies
in the lower quartile of the NBM range, and suggests warmer highs
more into the 80s is certainly quite possible.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Lingering thunderstorms may continue to impact St. Louis area
terminals near the beginning of the 06Z TAF cycle, but this will
be a short window, and VFR conditions are expected the remainder
of the night and into tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and gusty,
erratic winds will be the primary hazards with these
thunderstorms should they directly impact any individual terminal.
Scattered showers are expected to redevelop along and south of
the front tomorrow afternoon, but may only impact I-70 corridor
terminals for a brief period before moving south. VFR conditions
are expected at UIN throughout the TAF cycle.

BRC

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
637 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-222345-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
637 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the area, mainly
this evening. The primary severe threat is damaging winds of 60-70
mph, hail to the size of golf balls, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible each day through Monday. A few severe
storms are possible across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Glass

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
744 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NNE Novelty           40.07N 92.18W
05/21/2024                   Knox               MO   911 Call Center

            Tree down south of Edina. Time based on
            radar.

&&

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
749 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     Hail             Knox City               40.15N 92.00W
05/21/2024  M0.70 Inch       Knox               MO   911 Call Center

&&

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
801 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NW Flint Hill         38.89N 90.92W
05/21/2024                   St. Charles        MO   Public

            Tree down onto Hwy 61 near the St.
            Charles-Lincoln Co border; report from
            social media.

&&

Pfahler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
805 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     Hail             Clayton                 38.65N 90.33W
05/21/2024  M0.75 Inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

&&

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
812 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     Hail             1 NW Mehlville          38.51N 90.33W
05/21/2024  M0.70 Inch       St. Louis          MO   NWS Employee

&&

Pfahler

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
915 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Eolia                   39.24N 91.01W
05/21/2024                   Pike               MO   Public

            Multiple trees down on Hwy D outside of
            Eolia; report from social media with
            picture.

&&

Pfahler