Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS St. Louis, MO

984 
WWUS53 KLSX 081541
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1041 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MOC055-071-073-151-081630-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-240508T1630Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Osage MO-Gasconade MO-
1041 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE
AND SOUTHERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 1041 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Bland, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Cuba, Owensville, Bourbon, Belle, Gerald, Bland, Rosebud,
Leasburg, St. Cloud, Canaan, Japan, Stanton, Oak Hill, and Rosati.

This also includes Onondaga Cave State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 203 and 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 9183 3839 9109 3799 9110 3802 9153
      3815 9153 3815 9164 3829 9165 3829 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 280DEG 36KT 3820 9163 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glass

672 
WWUS53 KLSX 081550
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1050 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MOC055-071-073-151-081630-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-240508T1630Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Osage MO-Gasconade MO-
1050 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE
AND SOUTHERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 1050 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Bland, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Cuba, Owensville, Bourbon, Belle, Gerald, Bland, Rosebud,
Leasburg, St. Cloud, Canaan, Japan, Stanton, Oak Hill, and Rosati.

This also includes Onondaga Cave State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 203 and 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9109 3799 9110 3802 9153 3815 9153
      3815 9164 3829 9165 3829 9172 3840 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 267DEG 22KT 3821 9155 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glass

320 
WWUS53 KLSX 081602
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1102 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MOC151-081611-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-240508T1630Z/
Osage MO-
1102 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9109 3799 9110 3802 9153 3815 9153
      3816 9160 3825 9160 3829 9161 3840 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 282DEG 39KT 3818 9139 

$$

MOC055-071-073-081630-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-240508T1630Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
1102 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN GASCONADE
COUNTIES...

At 1101 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
of Leasburg, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Cuba, Owensville, Bourbon, Gerald, Rosebud, Leasburg, St.
Cloud, Canaan, Japan, Stanton, Oak Hill, and Rosati.

This also includes Onondaga Cave State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 203 and 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9109 3799 9110 3802 9153 3815 9153
      3816 9160 3825 9160 3829 9161 3840 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 282DEG 39KT 3818 9139 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glass

743 
WWUS53 KLSX 081609
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1109 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MOC055-071-073-081630-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-240508T1630Z/
Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
1109 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 1109 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bourbon,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Cuba, Owensville, Bourbon, Gerald, Rosebud, Leasburg, St.
Cloud, Japan, Stanton, Oak Hill, Noser Mill, and Rosati.

This also includes Onondaga Cave State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 203 and 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9109 3799 9110 3802 9153 3815 9153
      3821 9154 3823 9155 3829 9153 3840 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 282DEG 39KT 3816 9127 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glass

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
607 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from
  the late this morning into this evening. All hazards are
  expected: large hail, damaging winds, a few strong tornadoes,
  and flash flooding.

- A period of much needed calmer weather and cooler temperatures
  is expected to end the week and continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Surface observations show a low developing over the Southern Plains
beneath southwesterly flow aloft. A cold front stretches through
the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South. As the surface low
strengthens this morning, the front will lift northward as a warm
front. South of this front, a warm, unstable airmass will advect
into the Middle Mississippi Valley. The nose of the low level jet
will veer into southwestern Missouri this morning and force
convection along the warm front that will then move east/southeast
across the front and within a warm sector characterized by nearly
3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 60 kts of 0-6 km shear.

Thusly, this morning-early afternoon convection will have the
potential to be strong to severe, but its mode is uncertain, with
two scenarios possible. One is where it congeals and grows upscale
into an MCS that passes through southeastern Missouri and into the
Ohio Valley. This would pose primarily a damaging with threat,
though embedded supercells would also lead to a large hail threat. A
tornado threat would also accompany any embedded supercells, as well
as mesovortices on any line segment that is able to bow toward the
northeast given 0-3 km bulk shear of about 30 kts oriented southwest
to northeast. This scenario may dampen the severe potential of any
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The second scenario is that morning-
early afternoon convection is able to stay more discrete and
supercellular, which would lead to a greater risk of tornadoes and
large hail that would carry into the afternoon and evening as
multiple rounds of storms develop.

Regardless of either scenario, CAMs have been consistent in
producing multiple rounds of convection through the afternoon and
into the evening within the warm sector (generally along and south
of I-70) thanks to a persistent low level jet nosing into the area
and upper-level divergence via a jet streak. The warm sector will
potentially remain just as conducive for severe thunderstorms
through the afternoon into the early evening as it is in the late
morning, with any storm capable of all severe hazards. Strong
tornadoes are of particular concern during the afternoon given 0-1
km SRH upwards of 250-300 m2/s2.

Also of concern is the potential for flash flooding. Mean PWAT from
the 00z HREF maxes out at 1.5" over southern portions of the CWA,
with the same guidance producing a swath of 2-5" in that portion of
the area given training storms. Because of this, we have issued a
Flood Watch for portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern
Illinois.

Convection will exit the CWA this evening ahead of a cold front
sweeping through the region. This front will usher in cooler air for
Thursday, with highs running 5-10 degrees below what is expected
today. Moisture wrapping around the backside of the departing low
will produce low chances (30%) for rain mainly north of I-70 during
the afternoon and early evening.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

At the start of the extended period on Friday, guidance consensus is
that an upper-level trough will be east of the region with a
shortwave digging southward over the CWA along the through's western
periphery. A minority of ensembles and deterministic guidance have
light rain occurring over the CWA with its passage, but given it is
the minority, a dry forecast has been maintained for now. The deep
northwesterly flow will advect cooler air into the area, with a
majority of ensemble guidance suggesting temperatures will struggle
to get out of the 60s for most locations. Yet another shortwave will
pass through the Midwest late Friday into Saturday and send a cold
front through the CWA early Saturday. Despite this cold front, mid-
level temperatures will actually warm through the day as low to mid-
level ridging builds into the area, leading to Saturday being a few
degrees warmer than Friday.

Sunday into early next week, guidance consensus is that the trough
will continue eastward as upper-level flow over the central U.S.
becomes quasi-zonal. Some deterministic guidance has a shortwave
passing through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley within this flow late
Sunday into Monday, bringing low rain chances to the area.

As we get toward the middle of next week, guidance consensus breaks
down, with ensemble clusters and deterministic models roughly split
between northwesterly flow and southwesterly flow over the Middle
Mississippi Valley. If the former comes to reality, then
temperatures will stay mild and conditions likely dry. If the latter
solution is realized, then temperatures will warm and the area could
experience more active weather.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to impact the local
terminals from late this morning through this evening. Timing in
the TAFs represents when confidence is highest in impacts;
however, the threat of thunderstorms could occur in a longer time
frame than currently indicated. Thunderstorms will be capable of
large hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes, particularly at KCOU,
KJEF, KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS. Additionally, heavy rainfall will be
capable of reducing visibilities. The storm and rain threat will
exit this evening, though I can't rule out some showers around
KUIN early tonight.

Elmore

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening for
     Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-
     Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening for
     Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
325 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-090830-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
325 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected today,
mainly from late morning into early evening. All severe weather
hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and a few
strong tornadoes.

Training thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms for parts of the area from late
Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report occurrences of large hail, wind
damage and tornadoes to NWS St. Louis.

Elmore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
937 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     Hail             High Point              38.49N 92.58W
05/08/2024  M1.00 Inch       Moniteau           MO   Emergency Mngr

&&

KD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
947 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     Hail             Eugene                  38.35N 92.40W
05/08/2024  E1.00 Inch       Cole               MO   Broadcast Media

&&

KD