Wind Advisory 86, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
958 AM PDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...02/202 AM.

A weak storm system will bring cooler temperatures and a chance
of light rain, especially for the Central Coast, today. Gusty
northerly winds will affect the mountains and southern Santa
Barbara County tonight. Sunday into late next week, Santa Ana
Winds and fire weather conditions are likely. The northeasterly
winds will be strongest on Monday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...02/823 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak cold front is currently in Monterey County and will enter
SLO county around dawn. Light rain will be likely this morning in
SLO county and western SBA county. The front will continue to
weaker as it rounds Pt Conception and there is only a chance of
rain for srn SBA county (50 percent) and VTA county (30 to 40
percent). LA county will only have a slight chc of rain (15 to 20
percent). A chance to slight chc (20 to 30 percent) will linger
over most of the area this afternoon. By this evening only the
North slopes near the Kern County line will have a chc of rain.
Rainfall amounts will be greatest across coastal SLO county where
a couple of tenths of an inch of rain is possible. The rest of the
area will likely see a tenth of an inch or less. Many areas south
of Pt Conception will nothing or just a trace. The falling hgts
clouds and ocnl rain will all contribute to a 3 to 6 locally 8
degree drop in temps. Max temps today will almost all be in the
60s (xcp the higher mtn elevations). There is high confidence
that snow levels will bottom out at around 6000 feet, thus snow
will be confined to the highest peaks. Snowfall, at best, will
amount to a dusting.

Building high pressure in the San Joaquin Vly along with
northerly upper level flow and cold air advection will bring gusty
northerly winds to the area. The winds will start in the mtns
this evening and then work their way down into the vlys and
portions of the coasts as well as the western Antelope Vly. A
round of low end wind advisories is likely for the mtns, western
Antelope Vly and the SBA county south coast. Wind Advisories are
possible in the Santa Clarita and the eastern vlys of VTA county.
These winds will last into Sunday morning.

Aside from the wind in the morning Sunday should be a very nice
day. There will be offshore flow at the sfc. Look for 573 dam hgts
aloft with dry NW flow as the state will be in between an upper
high to the west and the departing low to the east. Most of the
cst/vlys will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming (cool air moving in
form the interior will cool the northern sections of the fcst area
2 to 4 degrees) and max temps will end up a couple of degrees
either side of 70.

The E/W gradients will turn more and more offshore Sunday night
and will combine with the offshore push from the north to produce
a moderate Santa Ana wind event. The winds will develop in the
predawn hours of Monday and will peak around 9 am. The strongest
winds (likely advisory level) will occur in broad line from the
Santa Clarita Vly to Point Mugu. The winds will then subside
fairly quickly starting late morning. Max temps will bump up a
few more degrees but will still be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

The winds and resultant downsloping adiabatic warming and drying
will result in Fire Weather worries. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more details.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/346 AM.

Tuesday should be the nicest day of the next 7. A ridge will build
in over the state and most areas away form the coast will warm.
The coastal areas will cool, however, as the sea breeze returns.
The gradients will trend onshore leaving only enough offshore flow
to keep the marine layer clouds away but not enough to develop
breezy conditions.

What was once thought to be an inside slider has turned into a
low that pinches off from a very large pos tilt trof and then
retrogrades back into eastern CA. Strong upper level support along
with a grip of cold air advection will combine with offshore flow
to produce a two day wind event. Right now it looks like it will
be a northerly wind event with plenty of advisories and perhaps
some warnings. There is a 30 percent chance that the winds will
end up being more northeasterly turning it into a Santa Ana wind
event. All of the cold air moving in from the interior will cool
temps 3 to 6 degrees on Wednesday with little change on Thursday.

The later portion of the week will likely be warm and dry with
sunny skies. There will be weak Santa Ana winds each morning. Look
for sunny skies and 2 to 4 degrees of warming.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1119Z.

At 1120Z at KLAX, there was no recent sounding data available.

Moderate confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. For KPRB,
KBUR, and KVNY, there is a 30% chance MVFR conds at KBUR and KVNY
between 14Z and 00Z. For KPMD and KWJF, max wind gusts may be off
+/- 5 kt.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. MVFR conds are possible at
all coastal sites between 12Z and 06Z, with best confidence
between 12Z and 00Z, with the exception for KLGB later. Max wind
gusts may be off +/- 5 kts at KSBP and KSMX.

At all sites, light rain showers are possible (10-30% chance)
thru 00Z with highest chances north of Pt Conception. Any rain
accumulation will likely be less than 0.10 inches.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is also a 20% chance for
VFR conds to prevail. Less than 10% chance for light rain showers
from 15Z thru 00Z. Northerly winds under 10 kt are expected
between 07Z and 15Z Sunday. There is a 30% chance for an east
wind component to reach 8 kt thru 17Z Saturday.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 30% chance MVFR conds between 14Z
and 00Z, with best chances until 20Z. 10% chance for light rain
showers between 14Z and 00Z, with any accumulations likely under
0.10 inch.

&&

.MARINE...02/945 AM.

Winds bumped up a few knots with the latest forecast through
tonight with no significant changes otherwise.

Multiple episodes of hazardous winds and seas are expected
through next week. Long durations of at least Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) conditions will affect the waters. The most dangerous
conditions are expected tonight into Sunday afternoon as a cold
front spreads over the coastal waters, and this includes Gale-
Force Winds over the Outer Waters. Large, steep seas will continue
across the Outer Waters through next week, and will likely spread
into the Santa Barbara Channel and into the nearshore waters at
times -- especially tonight into Sunday and possibly during the
middle of next week.

For the Outer Waters, SCAs continue through Saturday evening,
before a GALE WARNING goes into effect continuing through Sunday
afternoon. The strongest winds are expected over western portions
of the zones. Although winds in the northern zone (PZZ670) off the
Central Coast are currently sub advisory, seas are still
hazardous enough to warrant continuing the SCA thru this evening.
Outer Waters Gales will likely be followed by SCA winds and/or
seas continuing through next week (80% chance), and wave heights
could reach the 15-20 ft range (50-60% chance) during the middle
of next week -- highest in the northern waters Tuesday and
Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters along the Central Coast, expect SCA
conditions beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through
Sunday evening, with the strongest winds just offshore of Pt. San
Luis. SCA winds are possible Monday afternoon thru evening (30%
chance), but look more likely Tuesday. Even though winds look to
drop below SCA levels late Sunday thru Tuesday morning, seas may
still meet SCA criteria.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are likely (90% chance)
this afternoon through Sunday evening, with local gusts to 35 kt.
On Monday, there is a 20% chance of 25 kt gusts at times in the
eastern and southern portions of the Channel from the ENE due to
Santa Ana Winds from Ventura County. SCA winds look more likely in
the Western Portion of the Channel Tuesday (40-50% chance).

For the southern inner waters off the LA County and OC coasts, SCA
winds are likely this afternoon through early Sunday morning.
Then, local northerly gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-30% chance)
Sunday from around 8AM to the early afternoon hours from the
Malibu area thru the San Pedro Channel, but low confidence in
exact location, duration, and maximum wind speeds. Sunday evening
thru Monday morning, NW to NE winds look to increase again,
possibly warranting another SCA (60-70% chance), then another
round of NW SCA winds looks possible Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.BEACHES...02/239 AM.

There is a 50-80% chance that additional High Surf Advisories
become necessary along the Central Coast through this weekend thru
at least midweek, with the time-frame of highest confidence being
Sunday through Wednesday. Very minor nuisance flooding will also
be possible along the Central Coast from Sunday night into next
week. Elevated surf may also extend across the Ventura County
Coast this weekend into next week, potentially warranting the
issuance of a Beach Hazards Statement (50% chance), with highest
surf expected Monday thru Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Sunday to noon PDT Monday
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday
      morning for zones 343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday evening through
      Monday afternoon for zones 288-369>372-374-375-378>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 4
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke/Cohen
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Black/RM
BEACHES...Cohen/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox