Alert archive / California / Small Craft Advisories in 2024

Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Los Angeles, CA

February 4, 2024

NWS Los Angeles, CA issued this small craft advisory at Feb 4, 2024, 5:50 PM PST. It was in force for 19 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 4, 2024, 5:50 PM PST (01:50 UTC)
Expired
Feb 5, 2024, 1:19 PM PST
In force
19 hr
Issued by
NWS Los Angeles, CA

The text

As transmitted.

495 
WHUS76 KLOX 050150
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

PZZ650-051000-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240205T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA
including Santa Cruz Island-
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt and combined
  seas 6 to 11 ft when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. 
  Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions 
  which could capsize or damage small and large vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-051000-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240205T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  combined seas 14 to 19 ft when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM 
  and Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 
  60 nm including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions 
  which could capsize or damage small and large vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ676-051000-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240205T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  combined seas 10 to 13 ft when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente 
  Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa 
  Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions 
  which could capsize or damage small and large vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ645-051000-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240205T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.240205T0150Z-240205T1100Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 NM-
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ655-051000-
/O.CON.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA including Santa
Catalina and Anacapa Islands-
550 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and 
  combined seas 8 to 13 ft when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA 
  including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions 
  which could capsize or damage small and large vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
675 
WHUS76 KLOX 050422
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

PZZ650-051100-
/O.CAN.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA
including Santa Cruz Island-
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. 
  Mugu CA including Santa Cruz Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-051100-
/O.CAN.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM 
  and Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 
  60 nm including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ676-051100-
/O.CAN.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente 
  Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa 
  Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ655-051100-
/O.CON.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA including Santa
Catalina and Anacapa Islands-
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  combined seas 8 to 13 ft when conditions are worst.

* WHERE...Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA 
  including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions 
  which could capsize or damage small and large vessels.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ645-051100-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 NM-
822 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
501 
WHUS76 KLOX 051007
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

PZZ655-051815-
/O.CAN.KLOX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA including Santa
Catalina and Anacapa Islands-
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA 
  including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ650-051115-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T1100Z/
East Santa Barbara Channel from Pt. Conception to Pt. Mugu CA
including Santa Cruz Island-
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and seas have subsided below Advisory levels and the Small
Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

PZZ645-051815-
/O.EXT.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 NM-
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-051815-
/O.EXT.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM 
  and Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 
  60 nm including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ676-051815-
/O.EXT.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
207 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente 
  Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa 
  Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
179 
WHUS76 KLOX 051533
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
733 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

PZZ645-052300-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 NM-
733 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ670-673-052300-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
733 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM 
  and Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 
  60 nm including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ676-052300-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
733 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente 
  Island to 60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa 
  Barbara Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ655-052300-
/O.CON.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA including Santa
Catalina and Anacapa Islands-
733 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Hazardous sea conditions.

* WHERE...Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA 
  including Santa Catalina and Anacapa Islands.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFLOX) 
  for more.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
408 
WHUS76 KLOX 052119
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
119 PM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

PZZ645-655-670-673-676-052230-
/O.CAN.KLOX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240205T2300Z/
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal westward out to 10 NM-
Inner waters from Point Mugu to San Mateo Pt. CA including Santa
Catalina and Anacapa Islands-
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal from 10 to 60 NM-
Waters from Pt. Sal to Santa Cruz Island CA and westward 60 nm
including San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-
Outer waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island to
60 NM offshore including San Nicolas and Santa Barbara Islands-
119 PM PST Mon Feb 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions have diminished below advisory levels.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Feb 4, 3:58 PM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 3:58 PM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
358 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

updated aviation discussion

.SYNOPSIS...04/308 PM.

A powerful atmospheric river storm will bring a major threat
through Tuesday. Dangerous flooding is likely, most concerning
into Monday, several feet of mountain snow, and damaging winds
through tonight. Off and on again showers will follow Wednesday
through Friday or Saturday with cooler than normal conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...04/306 PM.

A very strong storm system continues to slowly push through
southwest California arriving into the area right now and is
starting to bring one of the most dramatic weather days in recent
memory. The rain and flood focus continues to be over southern
Santa Barbara, Ventura, and especially Los Angeles County. The
wind focus continues to be over the mountains and most of San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara County.

This is a DANGEROUS SYSTEM with major risks to life and property.
Many roads and freeways will flood or shutdown. Canyon roads will
experience significant rockslides. Low-lying neighborhoods will
see waters over curbs with a foot or two of water into vulnerable
homes and businesses. Many parked cars will be damaged. Mudslides
will occur over vulnerable areas. Recent burn scars will
experience deep debris flows. Several creeks and the Ventura River
will overflow their banks. Strong flows in all creeks and rivers
will pose a risk for drowning for anyone in the channels,
including the unhoused and anyone camping. The flooding risks are
highest over Los Angeles County, including the urban areas. Many
trees will fall, including in urban areas. Power outages could
occur anywhere. Mountain communities above 6,000 feet may be shut
off for a day or two with heavy snow covering access roads. Very
large and steep waves will make the seas extremely dangerous over
the open waters and along the coastline. Residents should heed any
evacuation orders. Stay off the roads, especially the freeways,
through at least Monday morning.

The surface pressure gradient between KLAX and KSFO just reached
+20.1 millibars, which puts it at the strongest of any February in
the past and knocking on the door of all time. This is one
indicator of just how very strong and dangerous this storm is.

This major storm will bring a multitude of dangerous weather
conditions to the area.

RAIN...
The deep moisture plume embedded in the warm front will continue
to interact with very dynamic jet forcing to bring moderate to
heavy steady rain to the area. The focus right now is over Santa
Barbara and Ventura Counties where 1 hour rates between 0.75 and
1.25 inches per hour are occurring along with 3 hour totals of
1.5 to 2.5 inches. Both these numbers are impressive and have a
history of producing flash flooding. The main rain band will
slowly move to the south tonight and the latest projections
continue to show it stalling over Los Angeles County from 6pm this
evening through 6am Tuesday. It will not be heavy for that entire
time, but there will be few if any breaks. The most intense period
continues to look like tonight into Monday morning. This will
result in a lot of rain and flooding. To put this into
perspective, the ECMWF ensemble mean between its 50 forecasts for
a 24 hour rain amount at Burbank Airport is 6 inches. With a
database that goes back to 1939 for Burbank, the second most
amount of rain in a calendar day ever is 5.45 inches. There have
also been 7 full seasons where Burbank did not receive more than 6
inches. It is a lot of water, in a small amount of time. Behind
and outside of the main band, many showers and possible
thunderstorms will bring occasionally heavy rainfall through
Tuesday. These showers will likely organize into at least one
band bringing a few hours of steady moderate to heavy rain. With
the flow staying southerly through the event, favored south-facing
slopes will continue to see amplified rainfall totals, including
the watersheds to several creeks and rivers which will enhance the
risk for flooding.

Impressive rain totals are still on track. The latest projections
create the need to break the totals down. Lower totals of 2 to 4
inches are expected for San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara
Counties, with 4 to 8 inches in the mountains and foothills. That
is still a lot of rain which will pose flooding risks. For all
other areas, 4 to 8 inches are expected, with Los Angeles County
likely seeing the upper end of that range. Favored mountains and
foothills should fall into the 8 to 15 inch range. Rainfall rates
are expected to peak in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour range, but
isolated rates up to 1.50 inches per hour are possible near
thunderstorms, the heaviest cells, and in the favored south-facing
slopes. A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all areas. See
LAXFFALOX for the latest details.

WIND...
Widespread wind gusts of 50 to 70+ mph were reported earlier
over San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara Counties and are
starting to lower. Many power outages have occurred over there,
including where our Santa Barbara weather radio transmitters are
located (currently down). These winds will continue to work down
to the south and into Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through
this evening. While these winds will weaken some, they will be
strong enough to pose a significant risk for downed trees and
power outages. Winds will peak through 6pm over Santa Barbara
County, and from 4pm to 1am over Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.
Expecting many trees down and many areas with experiencing power
outages. High Wind Warnings (or Winter Storm Warnings for the
combination of heavy snow and strong winds) blanket most of the
area. Winds will likely decrease significantly later tonight and
should not be a significant issue by late Monday morning.

THUNDERSTORMS...
Thunderstorms will become more possible on the back edge and
behind the main band. This threat will continue through Tuesday
Night as the air aloft cools and destabilizes, which is 24 hours
longer than previous forecasts. Given the forecasted shear profile
in the atmosphere, there will be a threat of waterspouts over the
coastal waters and even small tornadoes over the land. Also,
there is the potential for some strong downburst (straight- line)
winds with any convective activity. As for rain rates, any
thunderstorm activity could generate very high rates, on the order
of around 1.50 inches per hour.

SNOWFALL...
Snow levels are currently 6500 to 7500 feet, but will steadily
lower through Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow levels will drop to 5000
to 6000 ft by Monday night, then down to 4000 to 5000 feet by
later Tuesday. Snowfall totals of 2 to 4 feet are likely for
elevations above 7000 feet, with 10 to 20 inches between 6000 and
7000 feet, and 3 to 10 inches between 5000 and 6000 feet. With
strong southerly winds, potentially gusting up to 80 MPH,
significant winter storm conditions are likely and WINTER STORM
WARNINGS are in effect for the eastern San Gabriel Mountains and
the northern Ventura county mountains. Winter Weather Advisories
for lower mountain areas may be needed later. See LAXWSWLOX for
the latest details.

Temperatures...
High temps each day will be within 2 degrees either side of 60
each day.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...04/311 PM.

Much quieter conditions to follow Thursday through Sunday.
Occasional showers are expected through Friday, but most of the
period will be rain free. Temperatures will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...04/2353Z.

At 23Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. High confidence in
moderate to heavy rain with associated CIG/VSBY restrictions.
Heaviest rain will occur across Santa Barbara County through early
this evening and across Ventura/LA counties late this evening
through the overnight hours into Mon morning. However, low
confidence in timing of flight category changes with CIGs/VSBYs
running the gamut from MVFR to IFR with a chance of some LIFR
conds at times.

Also, strong southeasterly winds will impact airfields over
SLO/SBA Counties through this evening and elsewhere through late
tonight.

KLAX...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in development
of moderate to heavy rain this evening and overnight with
CIG/VSBY restrictions thru the TAF period. However, low
confidence in exact flight categories and timing of category
changes. Moderate confidence in east-southeast winds, gusting
20-25 kt thru 11Z, except for a possible period of SW winds
gusting to 30 kt 05Z-08Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in development
of heavy rain this evening and overnight with CIG/VSBY
restrictions thru the TAF period. However, low confidence in
exact flight categories and timing of category changes.

&&

.MARINE...04/1226 PM.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected across all the
coastal waters through tonight. Strong southerly STORM FORCE
winds (gusts 50 kt) and GALE FORCE winds (gusts 35-45 kt) will
continue through this evening, before diminishing overnight.
Along with the winds, very large seas will impact the waters with
20-28 foot seas from Point Conception northward and 10-20 foot
seas elsewhere. South-facing harbors, such as Port San Luis and
Santa Barbara Harbor, will be impacted with large, breaking waves.

Late this evening and overnight, winds and seas will begin to
subside. High confidence in some combination of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will continue through Monday
evening.

For Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Wednesday and Thursday,
there is a 40-60% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and
seas. On Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels.

Along with the winds and high seas, there will be a 20 percent
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through Monday. Any
thunderstorms that develop will be capable of brief heavy rain,
gusty and erratic winds, steep and rough seas, dangerous cloud to
surface lightning, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...04/858 AM.

An extended period of high surf will affect southwest California
beaches through Monday. A southerly wind driven swell will
develop today, bringing significant surf to south and southwest
facing beaches. North of Point Conception, surf heights of 14-18
feet with local sets to 20 feet are expected with 8 to 12 foot
surf south of Point Conception.

This large wind swell will create breaking waves and a possible
push of water into unprotected SOUTH to SOUTHWEST facing areas
like Port San Luis and Santa Barbara Harbor & Pier, and El Capitan
State Beach.

A combination of strong winds creating large wind driven waves
and higher water levels due to lower atmospheric pressure will
result in a threat of coastal flooding. For south to west facing
beaches along the the Central Coast, moderate coastal flooding
coastal flooding impacts are expected CONTINUOUSLY through the
Monday early morning high tide, due to the luckily miss aligned
high tides and peak surf. For beaches south of Point Conception,
moderate coastal flooding is possible for SOUTH facing harbors
such as Santa Barbara Harbor, mainly during high tide early Monday
morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for
      zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for
      zones 38-340>344-346>352-354>358-362-374-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Monday for zones
      87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Monday for zones
      87-366>368-371>373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Monday
      for zones 87-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 6 AM PST Monday for zones
      88-369-370-375-376-378-379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Monday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 4 AM PST Monday for zones
      345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Tuesday for
      zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zone 655.
      (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 4, 12:40 PM PST, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1240 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNE Los Olivos        34.70N 120.10W
02/04/2024  M58 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT480 Sbcfd Portable 1.

1210 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SE Santa Ynez         34.60N 120.09W
02/04/2024  M58 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AP901 Santa Ynez.

0700 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Refugio State Beach     34.46N 120.08W
02/04/2024  M59 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 623SE Sce Refugio Beach.

1000 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ENE Cayucos           35.46N 120.86W
02/04/2024  M59 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG569 Whale Rock Rsvr (PGE).

1010 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SW Guadalupe          34.93N 120.61W
02/04/2024  M59 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 417PG Guadalupe.

1220 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Santa Margarita   35.41N 120.53W
02/04/2024  M59 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG190 Flying Lady Rd (PGE).

0900 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 W Lompoc              34.67N 120.55W
02/04/2024  M60 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 449PG Renwick Ave.

0928 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 N Orcutt              34.90N 120.45W
02/04/2024  M60 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   ASOS

            ASOS station KSMX Santa Maria Apt.

1120 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 E Big Pines           34.38N 117.66W
02/04/2024  M60 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE547 Ford Observatory
            (SCE).

1210 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 NNE Goleta            34.50N 119.79W
02/04/2024  M60 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 422SE Painted Cave Rd (SCE).

0902 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE San Luis Obispo   35.23N 120.63W
02/04/2024  M61 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   ASOS

            ASOS station KSBP San Luis Obispo Apt.

0935 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Figueroa Mountain 34.73N 120.01W
02/04/2024  M61 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FGMC1 Figueroa Mountain
            RAWS.

1020 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Gaviota                 34.47N 120.21W
02/04/2024  M61 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE239 Gaviota (SCE).

0819 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 SSW Lompoc            34.60N 120.49W
02/04/2024  M62 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2332 Lompoc.

0950 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WSW Santa Margarita   35.36N 120.66W
02/04/2024  M62 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG119 TV Towers (PGE).

1046 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 WSW Figueroa Mountain 34.73N 120.07W
02/04/2024  M62 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT594 Sbcfd Portable 2.

1150 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 WNW Refugio State Bea 34.48N 120.12W
02/04/2024  M62 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 367SE Sce Coastal View.

1134 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 W Lompoc              34.67N 120.56W
02/04/2024  M63 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT414 Vandenberg Portable.

0930 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 10 WNW Gaviota          34.52N 120.38W
02/04/2024  M64 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE687 Dangemond (SCE).

1000 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 E Cambria             35.53N 121.00W
02/04/2024  M64 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG594 Green Valley Rd (PGE).

0900 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 8 SSW Lake Nacimiento   35.62N 120.92W
02/04/2024  M65 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG494 Adelaida Foothills
            (PGE).

1040 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 E Cayucos             35.45N 120.87W
02/04/2024  M66 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG741 Cayucos Road.

1150 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 8 W Gaviota             34.47N 120.36W
02/04/2024  M66 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE456 San Agustin (SCE).

0809 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NW Gaviota            34.49N 120.24W
02/04/2024  M68 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GVTC1 Gaviota Hills RAWS.

1000 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Vandenberg Village 34.73N 120.44W
02/04/2024  M68 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG825 Divide-Cabrillo.

1020 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Morro Bay           35.38N 120.85W
02/04/2024  M68 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 072PG Hillcrest Drive.

1010 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 E Black Mountain      35.38N 120.22W
02/04/2024  M69 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG775 Lewis Ranch Road.

1020 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WNW Atascadero        35.50N 120.76W
02/04/2024  M69 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG191 El Monte Rd (PGE).

1135 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 10 SSW California Valle 35.19N 120.08W
02/04/2024  M70 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station BRHC1 Branch Mtn RAWS.

1040 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 NNE Los Alamos       34.92N 120.22W
02/04/2024  M71 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG611 Tepesquet Canyon Road.

1200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 8 S Agua Dulce          34.39N 118.34W
02/04/2024  M71 MPH          Los Angeles        CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SE678 Magic Mtn Truck Trl
            (SCE).

1100 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NNE Los Alamos        34.79N 120.26W
02/04/2024  M72 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG665 Cat Canyon Road.

1140 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ENE Cayucos           35.49N 120.82W
02/04/2024  M72 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG633 Old Creek Road.

0950 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 N Cayucos             35.55N 120.91W
02/04/2024  M73 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG175 Camino Del Capitan
            (PGE).

0854 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 SE Point Arguello    34.45N 120.47W
02/04/2024  M74 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XCPT Pt. Conception
            Lighthouse.

1210 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE San Luis Obispo   35.28N 120.63W
02/04/2024  M75 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG807 High School Hill.

1000 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NE San Luis Obispo    35.31N 120.60W
02/04/2024  M77 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG715 Mt. Lowe (PGE).

1044 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 E Vandenberg Village  34.71N 120.39W
02/04/2024  M77 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PUSC1 Purisima Hills.

0920 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 SSW Lompoc            34.57N 120.50W
02/04/2024  M78 MPH          Santa Barbara      CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG852 De La Concepcion.

1100 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 W Santa Margarita     35.39N 120.71W
02/04/2024  M79 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG223 TV Towers Rd 2 (PGE).

0920 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSW Atascadero        35.45N 120.71W
02/04/2024  M80 MPH          San Luis Obispo    CA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station PG210 Falcon Rd (PGE).

&&
Local storm report, Feb 4, 12:47 PM PST, 5 hours 3 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1247 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg San Luis Obispo         35.27N 120.66W
02/04/2024                   San Luis Obispo    CA   Emergency Mngr

            Over 22,000 people were reported without
            power in San Luis Obispo county due to the
            strong winds.

1245 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Santa Barbara           34.43N 119.72W
02/04/2024                   Santa Barbara      CA   Emergency Mngr

            Over 10,000 people were reported to have
            lost power in Santa Barbara county due to
            the strong winds.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 4, 2:06 PM PST, 3 hours 44 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
206 PM PST Sun Feb 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 E Santa Barbara       34.43N 119.69W
02/04/2024                   Santa Barbara      CA   Public

            Strong winds knocked down a tree, resulting
            in some downed power lines.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Los Angeles, CA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 4, 4:42 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXLos Angeles, Ventura7 hr
Feb 4, 4:51 PM PSTFlash Flood WarningLOXLos Angeles7 hr
Feb 4, 5:02 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXSan Luis Obispo7 hr
Feb 4, 6:16 PM PSTWind AdvisoryLOXLos Angeles, Ventura4 hr
Feb 4, 10:42 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXSan Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara5 hr
Feb 4, 11:38 PM PSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLOXLos Angeles9 hr
Feb 4, 11:41 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXVentura9 hr
Feb 4, 11:56 PM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXLos Angeles9 hr
Feb 5, 1:13 AM PSTFlash Flood WarningLOXLos Angeles, Ventura8 hr
Feb 5, 9:40 AM PSTFlash Flood WarningLOXLos Angeles, Ventura11 hr
Feb 5, 10:13 AM PSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLOXLos Angeles, Ventura39 hr
Feb 5, 1:08 PM PSTFlash Flood WarningLOXLos Angeles, Ventura8 hr
Feb 5, 2:46 PM PSTWinter Weather AdvisoryLOXLos Angeles, Santa Barbara, Ventura65 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in California, 2024Every small craft advisory in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.