Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
218 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...07/132 PM.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through this
evening with light snow accumulations in the mountains. Gusty
northerly winds are expected across the Grapevine area and eastern
and southern Santa Barbara County. The winds will then shift to
the northeast Friday and Saturday with dry weather expected
through at least Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...07/201 PM.

Starting to see some convective development along the border
between SLO and Kern Counties as a fast moving secondary upper
low moves into the area from the north. The convective chances
will expand to the south southeast through the afternoon and
evening, creating some shower/storm chances across Ventura and LA
Counties. The cells are moving quickly which will limit rain
amounts but certainly can't rule out a quick quarter inch of rain
in areas where the cell cores move overhead. Brief gusty winds up
to 40 mph and possibly even some small hail and lightning are also
possible. In the higher mountain areas above 6000 feet a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm tonight with up to
another couple inches of snow accumulation where these cells
develop.

Hi res models still indicating all convective activity winding
down by around 8pm. After that the main issue overnight will be
some low end advisory level northerly winds across the mountains
and southern Santa Barbara County with gusts to around 45 mph
possible. Could also see some gusty but sub advisory level north
winds through western LA County, including the San Fernando
Valley, the eastern Santa Monica Mountains, and west LA.

For Friday and Saturday a light offshore pattern will develop with
some breezy but below advisory level northeast winds across the
mountains and some interior valleys. Otherwise a quiet and dry
pattern through the weekend with near normal temperatures. Some
cooling expected Sunday with possibly a return of some marine
layer clouds to coastal areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...07/217 PM.

There has been an increase in ensemble solutions showing at least
some light rain across northern areas early next week as two weak
troughs move through the state. There are still a fair number of
solutions showing the troughs taking a more inland, and thus drier
path through the southern half of the state so confidence remains
on the lower side.

As we move into the latter half of the week most solutions now are
supporting a strong inside slider evolving into a cutoff low
around the 4 corners with strong northeast flow aloft over
southern California and a building ridge off the West Coast.
Consensus models are still favoring a rapid warmup during this
period as gradients turn offshore creating some downslope warming
across the area. And possible some gusty north to northeast winds
as well. These are notoriously fickle weather patterns and even
slight adjustments to the ridges and troughs can have huge
ramifications on the weather locally, particularly with
temperatures and winds. So needless to say this is a low
confidence forecast at best and it's not surprising to see high
temperature forecast spreads of over 10 degrees late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...07/2210Z.

Around 21Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast, higher
confidence after 03Z. Generally VFR conditions are expected
through the period. There is a 30% chance for MVFR or IFR
cigs/vsbys at KPRB late tonight into Friday morning.

KLAX...Between 23Z and 03Z, there is a 10 percent chance of a
shower or thunderstorm at KLAX, and a 20 percent chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity. There is a moderate chance
of IFR to MVFR conditions near or in the vicinity of showers or
thunderstorms that develop across Los Angeles County between 23Z
and 03Z. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near or in the
vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms, including east winds
greater than 10 knots with any shower or thunderstorms moving to
the east of the terminal. Otherwise, a significant easterly wind
component is not expected.

KBUR...Between 23Z and 01Z, there is a 20 percent chance of a
shower or thunderstorm at KBUR, and a 30 percent chance of a
shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity. There is a moderate chance
of IFR to MVFR conditions near or in the vicinity of showers or
thunderstorms that develop across Los Angeles County between 21Z
and 01Z. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near or in the
vicinity of any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...07/210 PM.

Through this evening, Gale Force Winds are expected over the Outer
Waters and the Santa Barbara Channel, with Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) winds over the northern and southern Inner Waters. There is
a 40-60% chance for SCA winds continuing over the Outer Waters
through Friday morning, otherwise SCA conditions are not expected
Friday or Friday night.

There is a 60-80% chance for SCA winds to re-develop over the
central and southern Outer Waters on Saturday and then continue
into next week, perhaps extending into the Santa Barbara Channel
on Sunday (40-60% chance).

A northwesterly swell event is expected to bring 10-15-foot seas
Sunday through Tuesday for the Outer Waters and the western Santa
Barbara Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...07/210 PM.

High surf is expected at the beaches through early Friday
morning -- highest for west- and northwest-facing beaches along
the Central Coast. There is a low to moderate chance (30-50%
chance) of minor tidal overflows around the Friday morning high
tide, from 6AM to 9AM. Surf will subside on Friday, then there is
an increased chance of high surf between Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 8 AM PST Friday for zones
      87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
      349>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM PST this evening
      for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 645-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones
      650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Cohen/Hall
MARINE...Cohen
BEACHES...Cohen/Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
327 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

CAZ088-358-372-374-375-080015-
Central Ventura County Valleys CA-Santa Susana Mountains CA-
Southeastern Ventura County Valleys CA-
Western San Fernando Valley CA-Santa Clarita Valley CA-
327 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL VENTURA AND WEST
CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM PST...

At 326 PM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chatsworth, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Simi Valley...
Northridge...
Chatsworth...
Van Nuys...
Granada Hills...
Porter Ranch...
Canoga Park...
Sylmar...
Reseda...
San Fernando...
North Hills...
Winnetka...
and Tarzana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 11876 3444 11868 3428 11844 3417 11854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 304DEG 14KT 3429 11863

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Lund/Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
331 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

CAZ373-380-548-080015-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley CA-
Eastern San Gabriel Mountains CA-Eastern San Fernando Valley CA-
331 PM PST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM PST...

At 329 PM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Altadena and Pasadena to El Monte and near
Monterey Park. These storms are nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alhambra...
Pasadena...
Altadena...
La Canada Flintridge...
Eagle Rock...
Glendale...
San Gabriel...
Arcadia...
Sierra Madre...
El Monte...
Monterey Park...
Highland Park...
Monrovia...
Montebello...
Baldwin Park...
Irwindale...
Temple City...
and Duarte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 11825 3425 11812 3412 11794 3402 11812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 322DEG 3KT 3419 11815

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Phillips

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