Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
505 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered strong to severe storms still expected through the
  morning hours. The main threats with severe storms will be
  straight line damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

* A Wind Advisory is in effect through mid-afternoon with gusts
  near 40mph at times outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 504 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Scattered strong to severe storms have developed across the region
this morning ahead of a cold front. Most of these storms have had a
hail or wind threat up to this point. While low level shear has been
very supportive of tornado potential, 'inverted-v' type soundings
via AMDAR and some high-res models have indicated LCLs are on the
higher side for your typical High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) setup.
Storms have also had a tendency to go outflow dominant fairly
quickly despite having healthy mid-level mesocyclones.

Activity through the remainder of the morning will steadily drift
eastward. Despite decreasing instability with eastward extent, still
expecting scattered instances of hail/wind damage in the strongest
storms. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

While the first part of the overnight hours have been relatively
quiet across our CWA, we're still expecting storm activity to ramp
up in coverage early this morning as a strong cold front approaches
from the northwest and capping around 800mb erodes. Shear and
instability profiles continue to support a severe weather threat,
with damaging winds being the main concern with convection. Forecast
hodographs also exhibit strong low level shear and clockwise curving
in the lowest 0.5-1km to support high values of storm relative
helicity and favorable streamwise vorticity for tornadogenesis. As
such, isolated tornadoes continue to be a concern as well,
particularly in bowing segments/mesovortices. Activity is expected
to slide southeastward through the morning, eventually pushing out
of the region shortly after dawn.

Temperatures will rapidly plummet behind the cold front this
morning, dropping from 60s into 40s and 30s in a matter of hours.
Gusty winds out of the northwest could approach 35-40mph at times,
making it feel even chillier.

Skies should gradually clear out from west to east late this evening
into the overnight hours. Winds will also begin to slacken as high
pressure builds in from the west. This should help temps fall quite
a bit, with morning lows tomorrow in the low to mid 20s for many
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Cold and clear conditions are expected across central KY and
southern IN at the beginning of the extended forecast period
Thursday morning as high pressure will be centered over the region.
With high pressure in control for the day on Thursday, mostly sunny
skies are expected. Temperatures will remain slightly below
seasonable levels as warm return flow will remain well west of the
Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday, an open mid-level shortwave will transit
SW-NE from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Southerly low-
mid level flow ahead of the wave will help to draw enough moisture
into the region for light precipitation to develop by Friday
morning. While temperatures may initially be cold enough around
precip onset for wintry p-types, warm advection will quickly
overwhelm the cold air near the sfc, and the bulk of the
precipitation should fall as rain on Friday. Total precipitation
amounts will range from a trace-0.1" along and north of the OH River
to 0.2-0.4" across south central KY according to NBM 25th-75th
percentile ranges. Clearing will occur from west to east Friday
night, while showers may linger along and east of I-75 until around
sunrise Saturday.

The upcoming weekend should feature predominantly dry weather with
temperatures steadily warming Saturday into Sunday as thicknesses
increase across the OH/TN valleys. The synoptic pattern over the
weekend will feature broad troughing ejecting eastward from the west
coast of North America toward the northern Rockies while southeast
ridging remains entrenched. In the wake of Friday's system, ensemble
mean PW values do not decrease by much as relatively weak flow will
have a difficult time advecting low-level moisture east of the
Appalachians. As a result, there will likely be lingering cloud
cover through the day on Saturday, and possibly into Sunday. A
scattered shower cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon; however,
ridging and dry air aloft would likely cap most precipitation, so
we'll carry a dry forecast for now.

As we head into early next week, most ensemble guidance continues to
take a leading shortwave within the large-scale troughing over the
western CONUS from the northern U.S. Rockies toward Hudson Bay, with
Euro ensembles being somewhat farther north and west than GEFS
ensembles. An attendant sfc low and cold front will have a difficult
time progressing eastward through the MS/OH Valleys next Monday and
Tuesday as the best forcing from the upper trough will eject into
central Canada. Nevertheless, there should be enough moisture and
lift to support showers and possibly a few thunderstorms next Monday
and Tuesday. CSU ML Probabilities, CIPS Severe Analogs, and the
overall setup continue to suggest that severe weather is not likely
early next week, mainly due to the fact that the strongest flow
aloft (and by extension, the best shear) will remain north of the OH
Valley. Temperatures should remain above normal into early next
week, cooling slightly as the dilapidated cold front passes through
the region.|

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

Impacts/Confidence:
- High confidence in non-thunderstorm gusty winds of 30-40 mph
through this afternoon
- Moderate to high confidence in line of strong to severe storms
late tonight into sunrise
- Medium to high confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning

Discussion...VFR conditions will continue for a few more hours
before strong to severe storms, associated with a cold front, move
through the area later tonight and this morning. As mentioned in the
previous forecast issuance, performed minor tweaks to the timing to
account for current trends and latest model guidance. Still
expecting strong to severe storms to sweep the area between roughly
8-15Z, depending on how far east or south the terminal is. Expect a
few hours of IFR/LIFR visibilities/ceilings and 40+kts wind gusts
with strongest storms during the aforementioned time frame.
Otherwise, non-thunderstorm wind gusts will oscillate between 30-40
kts tonight and again after 15Z until around 21Z. Last but not
least, ceilings will continue in the IFR/MVFR range during the
morning in the post-frontal regime with conditions slowly clearing
in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

MESOSCALE...DM
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...ALL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
406 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

KYZ026>028-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-290915-
Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-
Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-
Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
406 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 /306 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kentucky, north
central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky and south central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this morning across the
region. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are the main
threats in storms.

Winds outside of thunderstorms will gust near 40 mph at times today.
A wind advisory is in effect through the afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to pass along reports of severe weather.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from west southwest to east northeast around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-029>043-290915-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Bullitt-
Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-
Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
406 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 /306 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Indiana, south central
Indiana, east central Kentucky, north central Kentucky and
northwest Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this morning across the
region. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are the main
threats in storms.

Winds outside of thunderstorms will gust near 40 mph at times today.
A wind advisory is in effect through the afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to pass along reports of severe weather.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move from west southwest to east northeast around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CSG

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