River Flood Warning 4, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
937 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Scattered severe storms possible this evening. All severe
    hazards will be possible.

*   Flooding concerns increasing for southern and central Kentucky.
    A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

*   Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the
    weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The bowing line in southeastern IL is moving east into southern
Indiana. This line is moving along an axis of MUCAPE and utilizing
40-45kts of Effective Bulk Shear. The southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky environment has been spared of storms this afternoon and
evening, so is in a primed moisture region. Limiting factors to this
line maintaining through southern Indiana is the increasing CIN and
fleeting instability. In most recent radar scan, this line has
become outflow dominant and may become more elevated in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

=====================
This afternoon and evening
=====================

A MCV is located near St. Louis this afternoon, evolving slowly
eastward. An effective warm front/remnant outflow boundary extends
SE through portions of western and southern KY, with sfc dewpoints
near 70 F along and south of the boundary. Scattered thunderstorms
have developed in south-central KY along the boundary and associated
instability gradient. Portions of south-central KY have been the
slowest to destabilize in the wake of morning convection and cloud
debris. Sfc temperatures are only now warming into the lower 70s at
BWG, with mid/upper 70s to near 80 noted across southern IN and the
northern half of KY. Likely still have a shallow low-level inversion
present across south-central KY, where ongoing impressive
supercellular storms could be elevated. However, this is also along
a boundary/instability gradient which continues to drift northeast
with time. A long, straight hodograph above 1 km is also supporting
splitting supercells which we have already seen with a left-mover
tracking northeast through Ohio County and a right-mover now moving
east across Warren County. Storms that move further to the right (E,
ESE) will realize greater low-level SRH and have a better chance of
producing a tornado.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of central and southern
KY where the near-term tornado risk is highest - roughly southwest
of a line from Brandenburg to Campbellsville. Further north and
northeast, low-level winds are notably weaker and the tornado risk
is lower.

The scattered storm activity ongoing now is expected to continue to
drift east and northeast with time, while increasing in coverage
this evening. So while severe weather is still very much possible
further north, such as along the I-64 corridor, the window for
storms and severe weather is shorter. The most likely time frame for
severe weather is now (3-4 PM) through Midnight. But areas further
northeast, such as from Louisville to Lexington, have the best
chance at seeing a severe storm from 5-11 PM EDT.

Given the destabilizing airmass (1000-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong effective deep layer shear (50-60 kt), supercellular storm
modes are likely well into the evening hours. Increasingly larger
clusters and perhaps bowing segments will be possible beyond 8 PM.
All severe hazards remain possible through the evening hours, with
the highest risk in the Tornado Watch area (this includes large
hail, damaging winds of 70+ mph, and tornadoes.

A Flood Watch also remains in effect for much of the area. Again,
the highest risk for flash flooding is concentrated across the
southwestern half of the CWA where the greatest thunderstorm
coverage is anticipated. Will need to watch closely for any training
along the boundary as it slowly lifts northeast. PW values are also
highest, exceeding 1.5 inches, along the lingering boundary. 1-3
inches of rain will be possible, with the highest amounts across
south-central KY. Localized higher totals of 3+ inches cannot be
ruled out across south-central KY.

=====================
Tonight and tomorrow
=====================

A final band of showers and storms will likely push southeast across
the region late this evening into tonight ahead of the cold front.
Confidence in severe weather after Midnight is much lower, but
localized damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Waning instability
will help to limit the wind threat at ground level. This activity
will likely weaken with time as it exits from NW to SE by the early
morning hours. Thursday looks drier with morning lows in the 60s and
afternoon highs near 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

By Thursday evening, the cold front responsible for recent inclement
weather will be off to our east along with most, if not all,
convective activity. Aloft, a positively tilted longwave trough will
extend from the NE US to an upper low positioned over the Four
Corners region of the SW CONUS. Embedded shortwave energy will
propagate through the longwave pattern into the OH Valley during the
day Friday, coupled with wrap-around moisture from the departing
surface low, and resulting in lingering precip chances. GFS
soundings suggest fog/stratus potential Friday morning; furthermore,
12Z NAM3k and HRRR soundings also show a saturated layer from just
above the surface to around 800/750mb, indicative of the possibility
of drizzle across southern Indiana and north central KY until late
Friday morning.

With the upper trough positioned over the OH Valley, temperatures
through the weekend will be several degrees below normal, resulting
in more of a Springtime feel: looking for daily highs in the upper
60s to low 70s through the weekend. Another shortwave will makes its
way through OH Valley Saturday, bringing another chance of light
showers as well as tightening the pressure gradient enough to
produce some breezy conditions, with gusts expected in the 20-25 mph
range Saturday afternoon. Low level ridging will simultaneously
begin building into our region Saturday, which would suggest dry
conditions for Sunday.

Low amplitude upper level ridging will pass overhead to start the
workweek, as the low level high center passes to our east. This
leaves our region on the dirty side of the high with return flow and
an uptick in low level moisture. Rain and storm chances return as
early as Monday evening through Mid week. Not expecting a washout,
but long range models' low temporal resolution have yet to resolve
finer details. It's worth repeating though that CIPS/CSU/SPC severe
comparisons show no signs of severe weather during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Strong to severe storms are currently scattered through the region.
These storms will continue for the next few hours. At times, strong
storms over the terminals could lead to variable and high winds and
visibilities as low as 1-2SM. As we lose instability from daytime
heating, these storms will begin to weaken.

As the cold front approaches the region from the northwest, a line
of showers and embedded storms will move through the region. This
line will mostly bring SHRA to the I-64 terminals and VCTS to BWG
for a few hours.

In the overnight hours, winds will be mostly from the south and
slowly veer to the southwest.

In the early morning hours, CIGs will lower to MVFR as the cold
front moves through the terminals. Behind the front, winds will veer
to a northwesterly direction and CIGs will improve quickly.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for INZ077>079-
     084-089>092.

&&

UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...CRG
AVIATION...SRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

INZ077>079-084-090>092-KYZ029>043-045>049-056-057-092300-
Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Crawford-Harrison IN-Floyd-
Clark IN-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Garrard-
Madison-
648 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Indiana, south central
Indiana, east central Kentucky and north central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this evening. Damaging
straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible with
severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move E/NE at 35 to 45 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ076-083-092300-
Orange-Dubois-
648 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this evening. Damaging
straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible with
severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move E/NE at 35 to 45 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

INZ089-KYZ023>028-053>055-061>067-070>078-081-082-092300-
Perry-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
648 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 /548 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 206 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Indiana, east central
Kentucky, north central Kentucky, northwest Kentucky and south
central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

Scattered severe storms will be possible this evening. Damaging
straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible with
severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move E/NE at 35 to 45 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

SRM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
819 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

KYZ063-064-074>078-081-082-090145-
Russell KY-Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-Barren KY-
Adair KY-Green KY-Clinton KY-
819 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN
GREEN...NORTH CENTRAL MONROE...WESTERN RUSSELL...SOUTHEASTERN HART...
CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN BARREN...ADAIR AND METCALFE COUNTIES
THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edmonton, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Greensburg, Jamestown, Edmonton, Burkesville, Three
Springs, Leslie, Monroe, Russell Springs, and Pickett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8591 3728 8569 3722 8537 3719 8535
      3721 8533 3715 8501 3670 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 283DEG 49KT 3700 8561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Neudorff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
830 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

KYZ071>073-090200-
Warren KY-Simpson KY-Allen KY-
830 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...CENTRAL
ALLEN AND SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Memphis Junction, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bowling Green, Scottsville, Memphis Junction, Franklin, Woodburn,
Three Forks, Hardcastle, Allen Springs, Oak Forest, and West Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 8661 3695 8659 3697 8615 3692 8616
      3691 8618 3691 8615 3692 8615 3693 8614
      3691 8614 3690 8615 3690 8613 3686 8610
      3687 8610 3688 8611 3690 8610 3690 8607
      3689 8608 3684 8607 3670 8608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 273DEG 29KT 3686 8649

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Graham