Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
521 AM PST Mon Jan 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A short break in recent activity is in store for most
of the forecast area today with some light snow showers clipping
areas north of the I 80 corridor. Back to back surges of activity
come Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing snow showers that are more
widespread in coverage coupled with impressively strong winds. The
greatest impact will be to any road travel from blowing and
drifting snow, and periods of reduced visibility. In general, the
weather this week really fits the season.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through early Wednesday morning

Some very isolated patches of fog in lower valleys, mainly in
Humboldt County, are reflected in automated obs this morning, and
anyone driving thru should use caution if encountering pockets of
reduced visibility. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions today and
cold temperatures with afternoon highs in the 20s and low
30s.Cloud cover should help to keep tonights overnight lows
comparatively "warmer" than recent, but we will still be cold in
the single digits and teens.

Tomorrow early morning sees a push of snowfall and strong winds,
arriving to northern portions of the CWA early morning and
spreading southward. Overall snowfall amounts aren't impressive on
their own with most of the area seeing up to 2 inches of snowfall
by tomorrow night. The only areas slated for higher totals are the
mid to higher elevations of Elko County where roughly 3 to 7
inches are forecast, depending on your elevation. What makes this
push of activity noteworthy is the wind that comes through with
the snowfall. Widespread sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph are going
to blow the snow around easily, leading to blowing/drifting snow
on roads as well as periods of reduced visibility. Travel is going
to be undesirable, especially with a crosswind along north-south
oriented roads such as US 93. A short lull in snowfall and wind
comes during the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning, but
the window for quieter conditions is so small, for some in
northern Nevada it won't seem like there are two separate pushes
of activity.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

Wednesday into Thursday morning will see the next trough that
will move across NV, but not before splitting into two pieces over
the Pacific northwest. The northern portion will move east into
the Canadian plains, while the southern portion will have a closed
low move SE into southern Idaho. Models have been trending
stronger with this system overall as both the ECMWF and GFS show a
deep closed low over the Snake river plain. Although, there are
still differences with timing and strength of the system, with the
ECMWF being slightly stronger/deeper than the GFS with respect to
the southern trough/low. The GFS wants to keep the northern
trough dominant which would steal some energy from the southern
trough which could mean lesser impacts to the Silver state.
Looking at other model suites both the NBM and CMC are favoring
the EC solutions, meaning probabilities for significant snows are
increasing. For now this system may deliver another 1” to 5” for
the valleys and 6” to 12”+ for the mountain ranges. With models
showing a strong dynamic system and a low close by, strong winds
will be possible across much of northern NV both ahead of and
behind the cold front. SW winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35
MPH, will give way to NW winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to
45+ MPH. These wind bring a risk of blowing/drifting of snow, and
significant reductions to visibility at times, with blizzard
conditions possible, especially in areas on the lee sides of
mountain ranges. For Thursday evening and Friday, isolated to
scattered light snow showers will be possible across the area with
weak instability will persist in the northerly flow aloft.
Attention will turn to the next trough Saturday and Sunday. Models
have come into better agreement, but differences still remain as
to strength and timing of the troughs. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
a strong trough with a closed low moving onshore Saturday
morning. The GFS shows the low over Oregon moving SE across
western Nevada. The ECMWF has the low tracking into northern
California, tracking SE down the central valley into southern
California. Another key difference is timing, the GFS is quicker
with the trough departing into the four corners region by Sunday
evening. The EC keeps the trough around through Monday afternoon
before it is absorbed by a strong Arctic low dropping south over
the Northern Rockies. Given the remaining uncertainty, have not
made any major changes to forecast snow accumulations with the
valleys seeing another 1” to 4”, and the mountain seeing an
additional 4” to 10” possible.
Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will start around average,
but will drop below normal by the weekend given the active
weather. Highs will start in the upper 20s to upper 30s through
Thursday, dropping into the low 20s to low 30s for the weekend.
Lows will start in the low teens to low 20s through Thursday then
dropping into the low single digits to mid teens for the weekend.
Winds will be elevated throughout the week, as periods of SW winds
followed by the passage of cold fronts by NW winds as each system
moves through. SW winds of 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH
followed by NW winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals. Mostly clear skies
before sunrise. Clouds spread in from west to east this morning
and through this afternoon, however all terminals are expected to
be dry today and tonight.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range.

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84/98/96