Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
119 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will slowly move east with hot
temperatures expected for the next few days. Meanwhile, showers
and thunderstorms will move across northwestern and northern
Nevada through tonight. After a brief break of drier weather,
another round of showers and thunderstorms expected across central
and east-central Nevada Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will decrease in coverage and shift eastward over the weekend. Dry
summer-like conditions settling back into the region next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night

A strong ridge of high pressure will slowly shift eastward,
allowing an increase in mid-level moisture and instability.
Showers and thunderstorms are developing today and expected to
last through tonight for much of northwestern and northern Nevada.
Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lighting
will be the primary threats. After a brief break of drier weather
late tonight, the axis of mid-level moisture and instability
moves into central and east-central Nevada, bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms Friday. Highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday

Over the weekend, chances for isolated/dry thunderstorms are still
expected for parts of central and northeastern Nevada with chances
below 20%. The weather is expected to shift northeastward giving
chances in northeastern Elko County 20-50% for isolated
thunderstorms and is will dissipate by the end of the weekend and
into early Monday morning. The recent weather is expected to see
a slight cooling in the temperatures with highs on Saturday in the
upper 80s to 90s, and by Sunday be in the 80s with valleys in the
low 90s. Breezy afternoon winds in two directions associated from
the frontal passage over the state. Central Nevada expected to
have southerly winds at 10-15 mph and northern Nevada will have
westerly winds at 10-15 mph.

Monday through Thursday, a break in the weather as models show
greater confidence of an off-cut-low heading south towards the
coast of Mexico and not expecting Well to move north until
Thursday, however with the distance of the low far south, a weak
upper ridge to near zonal flow is expected to remain over the
silver state, leaving drier and warmer weather conditions. This
will make the high temperatures that have now cooled into the 70s
to 80s on Monday, gradually warm back up into the 80s and 90s,
with Thursday highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The weather pattern
is expected to bring westerly/northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in
the afternoons, however on Thursday, models are indicating that
the off-cut-low will begin to shift back north and merge with the
ridge, which will make the wind direction change, keeping the
westerly winds at 10-15 mph in northern Nevada, but a southerly
flow at 10-20 mph for central Nevada.

&&

.AVIATION...-SHRA and VCTS conditions expected at all terminals
this afternoon and into the evening hours. VFR conditions
dominant, however could drop to MVFR or lower from passing storms.
Winds expected at 10 kts or lower, however, outflow from passing
storms may be present.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Well  above normal temperatures are expected to
increase the snow melt on the remaining snowpack on mountain
tops. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could
produce wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to
rapid increases in flows in some of the creeks and streams.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage
and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for
the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. An overall increasing trend is observed with the creek
reaching minor flood stage by tonight as temperatures remain well
above normal.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

90/97/97

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