Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1229 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected
across northern and east-central Nevada today. Active weather
will continue through the weekend at least for northern Nevada
with more daytime showers and thunderstorms before drier
conditions settle in. Dry summer-like conditions next week, with
temperatures remaining above normal for the region with upper 80s
to low 90s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night

An upper-level disturbance and mid-level moisture is promoting
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of northern
and east- central Nevada today. The best mid-level dynamics will
support a marginal risk of severe weather across much of northern
Eureka, northern Lander, White Pine and Elko Counties. Gusty
outflow winds up to 70 mph, hail, frequent lightning along with
heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. Meanwhile, drier air
ushered into west central Nevada will reduce convection from west
to east late this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorm
activity expected to wane tonight. After a brief break, active
weather will continue through Saturday with another round of
showers and thunderstorms mainly for parts of central and
northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with lows in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

A shortwave moves through Idaho and northern Nevada Sunday.
Instability and moisture remains present for isolated to numerous
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north of
and including the I-80 corridor. Model surface based CAPE and
DCAPE are currently showing values over 1000 J/kg which could lead
to an environment of gusty and erratic outflows winds, some of
which could reach severe strength. Highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with lows in the 50s.

Monday, some residual moisture and instability from the passing
shortwave, may produce some isolated showers and storms across
Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, quiet conditions are expected. Highs will generally be
in the 80s with some areas pushing 90. Lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday through Friday, zonal flow will keep things relatively
quiet, with dry conditions and highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Wednesday through Friday, winds will be breezy and out of the
west during the afternoon 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts.
Lows in the 50s. Some spread appears in the models Friday and
beyond, however cluster analysis hints at some troughing possible
which could signal a cool down.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and VCTS will develop over much of the region
again this afternoon and evening, with the main concern being
strong gusty winds of 50kts or more. Thunderstorm outflow winds
may also produce blowing dust, with local reductions to VIS. With
cloud bases up around 10-12k feet today, not expecting too much in
the way of rain, though there is a chance of pea size to penny
size hail. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late
evening hours. The greatest chance for TS remains at KEKO and KELY
at around 45% this afternoon with lesser chances west along I-80
and US-50.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Persistent above normal temperatures are expected to
increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could produce wetting
rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid increases in
flows in some of the creeks and streams.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height between action stage and minor flood stage. Additional
snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille
Creek near or above minor flood stage this evening.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

None.

&&

90/90/90

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