High Wind Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
216 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A high pressure ridge continues to persist through
this weekend. Southwest winds increase Sunday evening ahead of an
approaching weather system from the Pacific Northwest which will impact
northern and central Nevada Monday and Tuesday bringing gusty
winds and winter precipitation. Expect another round of winter
weather to arrive Thursday through next weekend.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Quiet weather
continues through Sunday evening as an upper level ridge continues
to influence the region. High pressure associated with this ridge
will begin to weaken and give way to an approaching cold front
from the NW. Expect winds to increase from the WSW shifting to
WNW late Sunday evening, first in northern Nevada in Humboldt and
Elko counties.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Monday...Increasing 700 mb flow of 50-60 kts ahead of this cold
front dropping in from the northwest will produce a round of
strong ridge top winds Monday afternoon-evening with peak gusts
70+ mph for the Ruby and East Humboldt ridges. For lower
elevations, areas from central Lander and Eureka counties
northward are currently on track to see peak gusts of 45-55 mph
Monday afternoon-evening, with 60-70 mph possible in wind prone
areas. A High Wind Watch starting 4am Monday morning and ending at
10 pm Monday night has been issued for these areas.

This cold front and its best forcing for producing bands of
enhanced rain/snow initially reaches northwest NV by Monday
afternoon, but the majority of the latest guidance then shifts
the best precip chances farther east across northeast NV. The
cold front will also help lower snow level elevations in northern
Nevada helping to keep precipitation as snow. Snowfall amounts
range from 10-15" in the Rubies, East Humboldt, and northern Elko
ranges while valleys are forecast to receive 2-4". Snowfall
amounts (75-90% probability) coupled with gusty winds have
necessitated the need to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Humboldt
County beginning 4 am Monday and ending 4 am Tuesday. Any precip
(30-40% probability) that reaches central Nevada will be of the
liquid type until snow levels drop later into Tuesday then will
turn to snow.

Tuesday through Saturday...As quickly as the trough
entered the region, it's on the way out on Tuesday. Lower
elevations dry out while instability supports continuation of
showers across the mountains. Any accumulation will be light. By
Wednesday, westerly flow off the Pacific will begin to moderate
the air mass, raising snow levels to 4500-5500 feet. Mountains
will continue to see precipitation through the end of the week as
a deepening trough along the Pac NW coast maintains a steady and
moist flow aloft. Lower elevations will see precipitation chances
increase again toward the end of the week as the trough shifts
inland. After Thursday, snow levels will gradually lower in
response to the advancing trough.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals over the
next 24 hour period. KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO can expect winds to
increase from light and variable to WSW at 10-15 knots late Sunday
afternoon. Remaining terminals will remain light and variable
throughout the forecast period.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
Humboldt County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
County.

Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County...
Southwest Elko County.

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