Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 AM PST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A very active pattern leads to strong, gusty winds
today with some snow showers pushing in from the North. Tomorrow
is shaping up to be the worst day with widespread and continued
atypically strong winds and more snowfall, leading to concerns
about occasional power outages and very difficult and hazardous
travel conditions. Beyond Wednesday, colder air settles in along
with breezy winds and some snow showers continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through early Thursday morning

Observations this morning show cloud cover increasing as the next
round of active weather approaches the forecast weather. Westerly
to northwesterly winds become much stronger during the day with
current forecasts reflecting widespread sustained winds of up to
25 mph and gusts approaching 40 to 45 mph at times. These winds
will be strong enough to blow around any loose objects outdoors,
such as any holiday decorations outside, as well as making driving
high profile vehicles on north-south oriented roads, such as US
93, difficult. On top of the wind are snow showers that move in
from the North this morning, spreading southward through the day.
Wet and slick roads combined with blowing snow reducing visibility
at times is a recipe for hazardous driving conditions. Anyone on
the road today should use caution when traveling.

Lingering, light snow showers continue overnight, and winds trend
lighter. However, overnight lows in the low teens and single
digits combined with the wind will lead to wind chills that feel
bitterly cold.

Wednesday is the most impactful day of the short term period. A
strong cold front dropping in from the north, once again pushing
southward over the course of the day, brings strong winds again
and more efficient snowfall. Widespread snowfall totals in valleys
range from 2 to 5 inches, and higher elevations anywhere from 6 to
almost 10 inches. Highest peaks in the Ruby Mountains are looking
at just over a foot of snow on Wednesday alone. Travel across much
of the forecast area will be hazardous and downright dangerous at
times. Showers mostly taper off overnight, except for some
lingering showers in northeastern Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday and Friday: High probability (70%-80%) of scattered
convective snow showers will continue Thursday and Friday, even as
the cold front pushes south of our area. Daytime heating will
combine with instability aloft that will follow the front in the
NW flow aloft. Banding of these showers will be possible to likely
given the continuity of flow in the atmosphere, with the best
chances occurring across Humboldt and Elko counties leading
localized accumulations of up to 2” possible with the stronger
bands which will weaken after sunset Friday evening. Attention
turns to the next trough that will affect the Silver state for the
weekend, which the leading moisture from, will start moving into
Humboldt county Saturday morning. Models have come into better
agreement with respect to timing, as current trends are slowing
down this system, but differences still remain as to strength and
timing of the trough. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong trough
with a closed low moving onshore Saturday evening. The ECMWF shows
the low over Oregon moving SE across western Nevada as it weakens
into a open trough. The GFS has shifted to the north, moving the
low over Washington into Montana while similarly to the EC,
opening up the low into a trough which will then be absorbed into
a stronger low digging southeast over the Northern Plains. Another
key difference that remains is strength, the GFS is much quicker
weakening the trough, and with the new northern track, the GFS is
favoring slightly less intense precipitation over a shorter time
frame. The GFS solutions if they come to fruition, would end
precipitation late Sunday morning for N NV while C NV could see
lingering showers end about noon Sunday. The EC keeps the trough
stronger, deeper, and independent longer than the GFS, and with
the track taking the trough over the Great Basin, sensible impacts
last until Sunday evening for northern NV and Monday morning for
central NV. Forecast snow accumulations will be similar to the
last system with with the valleys seeing another 1” to 4”, and the
mountains seeing an additional 4” to 10” possible. After Sunday
it looks like the pattern may change back to being quieter as a
high amplitude upper level ridge will build in over the west
coast, for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Models show the ridge
axis remaining off shore over the Pacific which would keep NV
under northwesterly flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the
cool side. Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will start below
average, but will vary from slightly above to below normal given
the active weather for the period. Highs will start in the upper
teens to low 30s Thursday, warm into the low 30s to mid 40s
Saturday, dropping back into the upper 20s to low 40s Tuesday of
next week. Lows will start in the low single digits to mid teens
Thursday morning, then rise into the mid teens to upper 20s
Saturday, before dropping back into the mid single digits to upper
teens Tuesday morning. Winds will be elevated throughout the
week, as periods of SW winds followed by the passage of cold front
Saturday evening, by NW winds. SW winds of 15 to 25 MPH with
gusts up to 35 MPH followed by NW winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts
up to 45 MPH. Winds will be strongest behind the cold front
Saturday, and may trigger blowing and drifting of snow back across
area roads as well as drops in visibility to near white out
conditions. Please use caution if you need to travel during the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon.
Ceilings will continue to lower with -SHSN beginning at northern
terminals KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO between 21Z and 23Z. -SHSN is
expected to reach KELY between 03Z to 05Z Wednesday. KTPH remains
dry. Periods of MVFR and possibly IFR can be expected at KWMC,
KBAM, KEKO, and KELY before showers exit late tonight. Winds will
be breezy to windy at the northern TAF sites KWMC-KBAM-KEKO
W-NW15-25G35KT, with winds diminishing after 03Z.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
Humboldt County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
County...South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County...
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...Southwest
Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday Humboldt
County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...
South Central Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST
Wednesday Northern Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST
Wednesday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...White Pine
County.

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