Tornado Warning 30, NWS New Orleans, LA

345 
WWUS54 KLIX 131737
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

LAC057-089-093-095-131815-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-241113T1815Z/
St. John The Baptist LA-St. James LA-St. Charles LA-Lafourche LA-
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES...WEST
CENTRAL ST. CHARLES AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES...

At 1137 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Raceland, or 13 miles east of Thibodaux, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern St. John The Baptist, southeastern St. James, west
central St. Charles and north central Lafourche Parishes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 9053 2969 9065 2996 9071 2996 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 182DEG 16KT 2976 9059 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

MM

743 
WWUS54 KLIX 131757
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

LAC057-089-093-095-131815-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-241113T1815Z/
St. John The Baptist LA-St. James LA-St. Charles LA-Lafourche LA-
1157 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES...WEST
CENTRAL ST. CHARLES AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES...

At 1157 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles northwest of Des Allemands, or 12 miles southwest
of Hahnville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern St. John The Baptist, southeastern St. James, west
central St. Charles and north central Lafourche Parishes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2978 9053 2978 9064 2992 9070 2996 9071
      2996 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 182DEG 16KT 2986 9058 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

MM

822 
WWUS54 KLIX 131817
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

LAC057-089-093-095-131826-
/O.EXP.KLIX.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-241113T1815Z/
St. John The Baptist LA-St. James LA-St. Charles LA-Lafourche LA-
1217 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES...WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES AND NORTH CENTRAL
LAFOURCHE PARISHES HAS EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2978 9053 2978 9064 2992 9070 2996 9071
      2996 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 184DEG 15KT 2994 9057 

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
327 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

The remnant low is still interacting with the strong ridge over the
gulf south causing winds to remain elevated along the coast and
offshore. This will coincide with a new spring tide cycle today to
bring water levels above coastal flood advisory criteria. Since high
tide is a few hours after sunset today, we will staddle 6 hour on
either side. A cold front will begin to move through the area
tonight bringing northerly winds which will send these abnormal
higher waters levels lower finally. As we move to the back side of
this cold front, there won't be a huge cool down but it will be
noticeable after all the abnormal heat we have been through. Thu
will be a nice breeze with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows mid
40s and lower 50s.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY...

The remnant low of Rafael is expected to get picked up by the trough
coming across the southern Plains. The low, combined with the
dynamics of the trough, will allow for some favorable shear values
during the day today with 150-200 m2/s2 of both 0-1km and 0-3 km
SRH. With a very streamwise hodograph (critical angle values around
90 degrees), any discrete and surface-based storm will have a wind
and tornado potential. However, there are a couple of caveats to
this setup which will be talked about below.

The first is the overall poor low-level thermodynamics. 3CAPE looks
to be around 75-100 j/kg which is sufficient, but not overly
condusive for tornadoes. Low-level lapse rates also appear to be
around the 5.5-6 C/km range, which again is sufficient, but
marginally sufficient.

The other is the possibility of convection anchored to the coast.
Although most of the newer CAMs do not show this, it was advertised
in earlier runs. If this were to happen, then most of the land areas
will get cut off from the moisture and the storms over land will
remain elevated without a wind or tornado risk.

That all said, more signs are pointing to the better moisture
characterized by mid-70s dewpoints making its way onshore and
getting up to at least the Florida Parishes. The storm mode looks to
predominately be discrete since the 0-6km shear vector is almost
perfectly perpendicular to the initiating boundary. So, with that
being said, if storms can get into the mid-70s dewpoint environment
characterized by 100 j/kg 3CAPE and 1500 j/kg SBCAPE along with the
very streamwise wind shear, we could see a few tornadoes across our
area, mainly along the Florida parishes and southward. Of course, if
storms struggle with low-level thermos or remain elevated, then the
threat is diminished, but most signs point to those things not
happening and us having scattered severe storms across the area this
afternoon and into the evening. JMZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

The conditions provided by Thu's cold front will remain until the
weekend when return flow comes back from the gulf. A new cold front
will then knock on our door by mid next week. This is quite a ways
out at the moment but it does seem logical as the stagnant cycle
that we have been in moves to a progressive cycle with more cold
fronts moving through. This is promising to be quite strong with all
attributes. Cold dry air and strong winds but as far as severe
storms, we will need to see how this interacts with what could be a
tropical system that is currently outlooked by TPC at 90% formation
over the next seven days. But, at the moment, it is way too far out
to give any real solution of when and where this system will be by
mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

IFR cigs will hold through mid morning for most or all terminals
today. These cigs should remain in MVFR range for the remainder of
the day with some breaks. All terminals should find TSRA causing
tempo IFR conditions as well and will try to time this in this
package. Cigs will fall once again this evening as a cold front
approaches then rise to VFR with fropa overnight for most and just
after sunrise for the most eastern sites. There could be some tempo
vis reduction to MVFR or IFR just ahead of fropa.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

The remnants of Rafael is still causing issues for the marine areas
or at least the interaction between the remnant low and the strong
ridge over the gulf south. Winds will remain SErly today around 20kt
but will slowly ease through tonight. But a frontal passage will
cause winds to shift to NW and may be strong enough to raise
advisory flags once again late tonight. After the front moves
through, high pressure will settle but not for long as southerly
winds will return over the weekend. Another front could impact the
northern gulf by mid next week with the possibility of gales.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  56  69  45 /  90  40   0   0
BTR  82  60  74  49 /  60  20   0   0
ASD  81  62  75  49 /  80  40   0   0
MSY  81  64  74  56 /  80  20   0   0
GPT  80  65  77  52 /  80  70   0   0
PQL  82  66  81  49 /  60  70   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
     for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ550-552-
     570-572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
     for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ552-570-
     572.

&&

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1038 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

MSZ068-131700-
Wilkinson MS-
1038 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WILKINSON COUNTY THROUGH 1100 AM CST
...

At 1037 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kingston, or 12 miles southeast of Natchez, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dolorosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 9123 3135 9121 3135 9116 3133 9113
      3123 9119 3126 9146 3132 9144 3131 9142
      3134 9136 3134 9134 3135 9133 3136 9130
      3136 9128 3137 9126 3136 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 203DEG 16KT 3141 9127

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1110 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

LAZ059-060-065-067-131745-
St. Charles LA-Upper Terrebonne LA-Lower Lafourche LA-
Upper Lafourche LA-
1110 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ST.
CHARLES AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES THROUGH 1145 AM CST
...

At 1110 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lockport, or 9 miles northwest of Larose, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Larose, Lockport, Mathews, Paradis, Des Allemands, Bayou Gauche,
Raceland, and Luling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2952 9052 2952 9054 2954 9056 2954 9057
      2956 9058 2956 9062 2989 9062 2989 9061
      2988 9061 2989 9060 2986 9026 2950 9046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 189DEG 15KT 2965 9051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM