Special Marine Warning 310, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Tropical Depression Debby still in the vicinity of Charlotte this
afternoon, with upper ridging over New Mexico. That ridging
extends southeastward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The
circulation around Debby has effectively produced a surface
boundary to the north of Interstate 10. Northwest winds have
surged along this boundary in the last hour or two to 15 to 20
mph, and have dropped dew points on the Mississippi coast
significantly in the last hour or so. Unfortunately, temperatures
are still hot, in the middle and upper 90s.

Debby should get absorbed into the westerlies overnight...finally.
The main impact with that will be to allow the ridging to the west
to expand eastward slightly. That will keep the overall column
rather dry, with precipitable water values remaining in the 1.5 to
1.7 inch range into the weekend. That's likely to keep any
precipitation threat limited, and probably close to zero over most
land areas through Friday night.

Expecting dew points on Friday to rebound into the 70s where they
have dried out this afternoon. Forecast heat indices will be near
or above criteria across many of the same areas as today, and have
issued another heat advisory with the same boundaries for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Overall not a lot of change in the upper pattern into the middle
of next week. Perhaps even a bit of strengthening of the eastern
extension of the upper ridge across the area. Forecast soundings
indicate that moisture levels probably won't increase enough to
support any more than isolated convection away from the immediate
coastline of the Louisiana parishes until perhaps Monday or
Tuesday. Even then, probably not talking about much more than
30-40 PoPs at best. Don't really expect a great deal of change in
temperatures for most of the area, either, although it may be just
enough to keep high temperatures from crossing the century mark in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Very calm under high pressure and all terminals are forecasted at
VFR conditions for the foreast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024

Main concern for marine interests through the forecast period will
be the potential for thunderstorms. That will primarily be late
night through mid morning hours, but areal coverage shouldn't be
particularly widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  98  76  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  98  76  97  76 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  96  80  96  80 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  96  78  96  77 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  99  76 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW