Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Current upper level analysis shows upper low centered along the
Mississippi River between LA and MS as well as a deep trough in the
western Atlantic. This evening through Monday night, there's good
agreement that the upper low will track southeast across the
northeastern Gulf and into the Atlantic as its absorbed by the
longwave trough. As many cold core lows do, this one will do its
best to squeeze what little moisture is available out of the
atmosphere. JAN radar already shows a few showers moving south into
SW MS. Model soundings indicate very steep low to mid level laps
rates, due to the deep upper low overhead. So while moisture is very
limited, a few cells could produce small to almost severe hail this
afternoon and evening. Monday as the low moves into the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Dropping 500mb heights, cloudiness, and cold air advection should
keep temps slightly below normal on Monday. A few lingering showers
will be possible in the morning time, but not expecting much in the
way of impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

The middle half of next week looks pretty quiet weather-wise as
strong upper level ridge follows in the footsteps of the upper low.
Temperatures will moderate slightly each day, with highs reaching
into the low 70s by Friday. Before the end of the week, a northern
stream trough looks to drag a frontal boundary into the region.
Thunder appears unlikely at this point with coverage well below 50%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

VFR conditions will dominate the next several hours from midday
onward. However, overnight tonight, isolated showers will again
develop and VIS/CIG reductions (IFR mostly) are expected to take
shape once again generally after 03z. Backed off SHRA to VCSH as am
not as confident on rain coverage. Winds will generally remain light
and variable today, then become strong and gusty tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Broad upper and surface low is currently centered over the northern
Gulf Coast. The surface low will deepen as it moves southeast into
the northeastern Gulf this evening tonight. The tightening of the
pressure gradient from this will end the current lull in winds and
bring strong offshore winds across all of the coastal waters.
Adjusted marine hazards to account for this with Small Craft only in
the outer open waters now being expanded to all of the coastal
waters tonight. These conditions will likely persist through Monday
before slacking off Tuesday morning as surface ridge building in
weakens the pressure gradient. A couple days of quiet marine
conditions expected mid week with return of windy conditions leading
up a system late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  59  37  61 /  50   0   0   0
BTR  48  63  42  68 /  30  10   0   0
ASD  46  61  43  68 /  60  20   0   0
MSY  49  60  47  65 /  40  20   0   0
GPT  46  58  43  65 /  60  20   0   0
PQL  44  57  42  69 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
324 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

MSZ070-071-042200-
Pike MS-Walthall MS-
324 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WALTHALL AND NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CST...

At 324 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ruth, or 7 miles northeast of Mccomb, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Walthall and northeastern Pike Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 9010 3114 9019 3131 9045 3135 9042
      3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 291DEG 12KT 3131 9037

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Zeringue

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             Summit                  31.29N 90.47W
02/04/2024  E0.50 inch       Pike               MS   Broadcast Media

            Hail just under dime size reported in
            Summit.

&&

JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

MSZ071-042230-
Walthall MS-
354 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WALTHALL
COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM CST...

At 353 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salem, or 15 miles east of Mccomb, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tylertown, Salem, and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3122 9003 3118 9003 3117 9000 3114 9000
      3113 8994 3109 8993 3100 9001 3100 9012
      3115 9026 3127 9026 3129 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 309DEG 20KT 3121 9022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Zeringue

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