Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Overall a fairly tranquil night across the CWFA with most of the
convection having dissipated...at least across the landbased
zones. Over the next few hours we'll still see scattered showers
and storms develop over the nearshore waters, which may drift
over land from time to time, so through the near term continued
with POPs mostly situated right along the immediate coast. Looking
upstream, convection across the ArkLaTex has lingered for most of
the evening and overnight. CAMs wanted to develop a MCV and move
it southward toward our region through the day on Thursday, Taking
a look at the radar from SHV, indeed, the MCV has developed
across northeast Texas and will continue to move generally toward
the southeast. How far or how long this feature persists is still
in question, but this feature could lead to a better POP/QPF
signal for today. That said, most guidances have a bit more of a
drier signal for today so backed POPs off just a bit, but still
kept them middle of the road. With the higher POPs today, no heat
headline will be needed. However, if we continue to trend drier it
wouldn't be impossible to need a short fused heat adv this
afternoon, especially if convection develops later and the
coverage is less than that of yesterday. Regardless, where
convection does occur it will produce very efficient/high
rainfall rates. PWATs remain around 2.0" give or take. Also,
cannot rule out a rogue strong wind gust or two in storms that
contain the widest and more robust updrafts.

The surface cold front should arrive later today and will meander
around the CWFA through the remainder of the short term period.
Rain chances going into the upcoming weekend will remain, even
during diurnal min periods respectively with the weakness aloft
and proximity of the cold front. A good bit of low level lift will
be around so even convection (albeit likely more limited in
coverage) will be possible during the nighttime hours. Otherwise,
outside today, temperatures will drop to around or perhaps
slightly below average going into the start of the weekend. Again,
this will put the brakes on the need for heat advisories at least.
(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Active southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the entire
long term/medium range as the upper level trough remains overhead.
At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will remain
over the region. Overall, confidence continues in the very wet
period from this upcoming weekend and right into the start of the
new workweek. PWAT values will remain close to 2.0" each day,
perhaps slightly higher at times leading to potential flash
flooding concerns almost on a daily basis. In fact, WPC has
delineated a marginal risk for our region through their
experimental outlook domain. A secondary threat would be an
isolated strong wind gust or two. The pattern again remains the
same but the only other mentionable entity would be a weak wave
moving into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which may enhance
low level moisture further and for this reason continued the
higher than average (at least for this range) POPs. As for
temperatures, expect the below average trend that evolves in the
short term to continue through the long term period as clouds and
rainfall will hold temperatures down to a more manageable
level...or at least a bit more comfortable. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024
TAFs will be VFR conditions through the first half of the cycle
outside of convection. As of the time this was written, a line of
storms is approaching BTR so put prevailing TSRA for that starting
at the bottom of the hour. Otherwise, generally went with VCTS or
tempo groups where needed. Tomorrow will have even lower ceilings
with widespread IFR/MVFR and lower ceilings if any embedded
storms directly impact a terminal. BL/HD

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Generally favorable marine conditions through this forecast
period. A light onshore flow is anticipated through the remainder
of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend with winds
generally around or less than 10kts outside of convection. That
said, convection will be possible, especially during the late
night hours through the morning. Locally higher winds and seas
will be possible in the strongest activity. With the generally
light low level flow and likelihood of outflow boundaries from
previous convection, waterspouts will also remain a threat.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  70  90  60  90
BTR  75  89  76  90 /  60  90  60  90
ASD  75  89  75  90 /  80 100  80 100
MSY  77  88  77  89 /  80 100  70 100
GPT  76  88  76  89 /  80 100  80 100
PQL  76  90  76  91 /  90 100  80 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RDF

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