Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1152 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Sending out forecast with updated POPs to better reflect current
radar trends. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
moving SW to NE across the western half of the CWA. 12Z LIX
sounding as well as model soundings indicate strong low level
inversion is still in place across LA and MS. Looking at soundings
further west, there's a bit more instability aloft. So makes sense
to be seeing stronger cells with deeper cores west of the MS
River. Overall forecast remains the same with coverage and storm
intensity of activity increasing, especially this afternoon and
evening.

Winds are ramping up in marine zones and should spread inland as
the inversion weakens with surface warming. Forecast is still a
little too quick with inland winds increasing but will hold off on
making changes to that portion of the forecast with nearshore wind
obs currently increasing recently.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

We don't need to go through all the variables that make severe wx
possible with this scenario. At this point a severe storm may not
even be a probability but a certainty for some areas. There will be
a lot going on through the day with this system. The polar jet alone
would cause strong to severe storms with this but the coupling of
the subtrop jet with the polar jet will provide even stronger
conditions and perfect timing for a lot of interesting variables
found with this system. One of those is the depth and amount of
moisture as PW values will be running near record values for this
time of year. A deep warm rain process will begin as the warm front
begins to lift north causing storms and training ahead of the cold
front to become an issue. The cold front will move rapidly through
and training rain rates ahead of it may be in the 3 to 5 inch per
hour range making the flood watch an obvious call. A high wind
warning is in place, which means gradient winds will be an issue and
could cause power outages in some areas alone. The reason it is easy
to say that a severe storm may not be a probability but a certainty
is due to the coupling of gradient and storm winds, which could
easily cause winds to peak at 60+mph. Southerly winds will easily
push enough water to cause coastal flooding issues as well. Only
rainfall and mainly gradient winds to be concerned with until the
sfc warm front moves over the area. Then those areas go sfc based
and storm winds and tornado development can reach the sfc. This
looks to start at the SELA coast by noon today. By 3pm today, this
line(sfc warm front) should be found from Thibodaux to Port
Sulphur, which means all areas along and south of this line could
get some type of severe storm. This line will move farther inland
from there and should be well inland along a line from near
Liberty MS to near Slidell LA by 6pm. The entire area should be
sfc based by 9pm. The cold front will then begin to move through
the area around or just before midnight with its own storm mode
issues. Most of these could fall into the QLCS category but as
strong dry air forces its way into the back side of this line, a
squall line will form making for the possibility of severe storms
along the entire line as it moves through. The front should be
east of the area by 5am Tue. But strong gradient winds will also
be found behind the front area wide, just no storms. Since most of
this activity will be evening and overnight, it would be a great
idea to know how to get your weather warnings if/when they area
issued for your area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Once the area is rid of this cold front, high pressure will settle
bringing things to a much more relaxed situation by mid week. But
the next cold front may also move quickly through and that may be by
the end of this week so the progressive pattern will continue for
now. We will take on one system at a time and we will take a
deeper look at the next system once the current one is by us.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Forecast is a bit more challenging with 18Z TAF package due to
limited ASOS observations at the moment. Cigs have already fallen
well into MVFR range but and will continue to lower to IFR before
sunset today. Temporary drops in CIGs and VIS expected as
scattered showers and storms pass across terminals over the next
few hours. Lightning is still more isolated at this hour but
enough so across the area to justify adding VCTS to some
locations. Expecting convective coverage and intensity to increase
as the afternoon progresses. At the same time, winds will be an
issue at all terminals today/tonight. Wind shear impacts are
expected as well. Southerly winds are currently rising in coastal
waters and will follow suit inland as time progresses. Sustained
20-25kt with gusts up to 40kt or higher especially for those along
the coast. Winds will abruptly shift with FROPA from almost due
south to WNW with close to the same speeds which occurs roughly
around midnight tonight at BTR and end for GPT around 3am Tue
morning. Strong to severe +TSRA will also be likely at one or two
sites during this event and all sites will have equal opportunity
at severe storms mainly between 3pm and FROPA. CIGs should jump up
tomorrow morning as the front races eastward. Not expecting winds
to decrease by an appreciable amount until Tuesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Very volatile conditions will plague the coastal waters today and
tonight. Flags for storm warning and gale warnings will remain and
storm warnings will be extended in areal extent to include all but
the tidal lakes. Once we are in the highest flagged conditions, we
will begin to time the lowering of these flags. Strong to severe
storms will also accompany this cold front while the front races
east tonight. Winds will abruptly shift from southerly to west as
the cold front passes. This will cause a very peaked confused sea
condition as this occurs. Wind speeds will gradually fall from gales
to around 25kt by Tuesday night and all marine headlines may be
lowered by mid week before the next front impacts the area starting
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  43  52  29 / 100 100  10   0
BTR  70  46  55  33 / 100 100   0   0
ASD  70  48  57  33 / 100 100  10   0
MSY  70  50  57  37 / 100 100  10   0
GPT  67  48  58  33 / 100 100  30   0
PQL  69  49  62  33 / 100 100  40   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056-057-059-064-065-071-079-081-083-085-086-088>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for LAZ058-066>070-
     076-078-080-082-084.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ058-060-066>070-
     076>078-080-082-084-087.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ058-060-
     066>070-076>078-080-082-084-087.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-534.

     Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>085.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ087-088.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ086>088.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ086.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ534.

     Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
204 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

LAZ057>060-065-082045-
St. Charles LA-Upper Terrebonne LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
St. James LA-Upper Lafourche LA-
204 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST, SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES, WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES
AND NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISHES THROUGH 245 PM CST...

At 203 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Raceland, or 7 miles north of
Houma, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hahnville, Paradis, Des Allemands, Raceland, Boutte, Luling, South
Vacherie, Bayou Gauche, Bayou Cane, Gray, and Chackbay.

This includes Interstate 310 between mile markers 8 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9069 2965 9075 3000 9067 2992 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 203DEG 35KT 2969 9070

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
229 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

LAZ058-060-082100-
St. Charles LA-St. John The Baptist LA-
229 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST AND NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES PARISHES THROUGH 300 PM CST...

At 229 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Paradis, or near Hahnville,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hahnville, Laplace, Killona, Norco, Paradis, Montz, Boutte,
Destrehan, Taft, New Sarpy, Bayou Gauche, Luling, Des Allemands, and
Edgard.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 208 and 219.
 Interstate 310 between mile markers 5 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 9048 2987 9050 2986 9051 2988 9053
      3010 9050 3009 9033 3007 9028 2983 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 204DEG 42KT 2989 9045

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAB