Gale Warning 16, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
328 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

The next line of sh/ts is developing to our west and will eventually
move into our area slowly this morning. The environment over the
gulf south is primed for advective fog and there is some around. The
problem is cooling it to maximize the amount of droplets. There is
also some ripples of omega(lift) moving through the boundary layer,
so that doesn't help in production either. But there will be some
patchy fog and it could be dense in isolated locations but not for
long periods. The cold front can be seen very well from near SHV to
just west of Victoria TX at 230a. This front will work its way into
our area starting around noon today and should be out of the land
zones by midnight tonight. The line of sh/ts is well ahead of the
front, but the front will catch up with it. There has been no issues
with any of the storms associated with this scenario so far, but as
the front catches up, it will provide conditions promoting sfc based
storms. This means all issues will be on the table such as severe
and heavy rainfall. This line of storms will become more
progressive, but since this will be high rainfall rates falling over
already saturated ground, it could cause flooding issues again
today. We will leave the flood watch as is in areal extent but will
entend the time to 6pm since the front will be an important factor
with this scenario. As far as the severe wx that could be produced,
numbers are not impressive such as CAPE(max800) and SRH(max220) but
they are enough. But the only place these numbers are found along
with being sfc based is right along the line of sh/ts. Anything out
ahead of this line will be elevated. Once the front moves through,
we will stay cloudy a bit longer but should begin to clear overnight
tonight with strong CAA and DAA being pumped into the area on strong
NW winds for Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Temps will fall back into the 50s for highs Wed and Thu and struggle
to get into the 60s Friday. Some light freezing condions for the
northern portion of the area Wed night othewise just cold with a
slow warming trend by the end of the week as winds shift from
northerly to easterly then southerly as the sfc high moves in Thu
and exits east Fri. The next front looks to approach by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

The mix of IFR, MVFR and even VFR cigs will remain through this taf
pack. Vis will also be in and out of these levels before fropa
today. Another day of -SHRA for the most part but there will be a
line of TSRA moving through with fropa later today. We will time the
wind shift and storms with prevailing groups. Cigs will lift then
clear with VFR conditions after fropa but NW winds will be strong on
the lee side of water bodies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

We will be changing the SCA to Gale warnings for most open gulf
waters from midnight to noon Wed. Winds should be sustained around
30kt with frequent gusts well above gale force. Even the nearshore
zones will be included but should see these winds toward the out
limits of those zones. Winds will ease through the day Wed and
should be low enough Thu morning to drop all headlines. Winds will
shift to easterly by the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  38  55  31 /  70  30   0   0
BTR  77  43  59  36 /  60  20   0   0
ASD  74  43  58  34 /  90  60   0   0
MSY  74  46  57  41 /  80  60   0   0
GPT  71  43  56  36 /  90  90  10   0
PQL  76  44  60  33 /  80  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ039-056>060-064>071-
     076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ550-
     552-555-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday
     for GMZ557.

MS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
     GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ552-
     555-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE