Gale Warning 1, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024

We will try to keep things as simple and unconfusing as possible by
keeping headlines to what is necessary and only ramping up to the
highest headlines. Once in the highest headlines, we can then start
to ramp things down. This keeps the lowest amount of headlines valid
for any time segment and allows for tappering the end of the
current headline. Today's system will show a warm front trying to
move inland but not making much headway as its farthest northward
extend should be mainly just south of BTR to Picayune to Saucier
then ENE from there. There is a chance that some of the storms
south of this boundary could be sfc based between 3-7pm. But the
majority of this activity will be elevated and thunder could be
heard from some of these as well but more likely near the coast.
Rain will be much like the system that just passed somewhere in
the neighborhood of 1-2 inches. The sfc low with this will lower
to around 1003mb which will cause sustained winds to quickly rise
today to around 20 to 25mph with frequent gusts well into the 30s.
This will prompt a wind advisory for those areas that most of
this wind is sfc based. As the air moves up and over the warm
front, the sfc winds will weaken for areas to the north but it
will still be breezy. This system will be very progressive and
will not hang around, so flooding should not be the biggest issue
with this and this is reflected with a marginal risk of flooding
rainfall. SPC also has coastal areas under a marginal risk of
severe which seems appropriate, but the main issue with this
system will be the windy conditions along with a quick rise in
coastal water levels and a low end coastal flood advisory will
handle the issues expected with that.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024

The next frontal system should begin impacting the area by Monday. A
few showers will move through Monday morning but a broken line of
sh/ts will begin rapidly working through the area by noon or shortly
before along a warm front screaming northward. This system will move
quick as the cold front will move through by late Mon evening
through the overnight hours. Wind speeds will be 40-50mph just above
the sfc in the warm sector and just behind the cold front, so any
transport of the major fraction of these winds could cause a storm
be become severe. The line of storms along the cold front will
definitely take advantage of this as dry mid level air will also be
rapidly advancing into this line from behind causing strong downward
transport. The next system looks to be by the end of next week and
there is no clear signal on what this will look like at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024

Cigs will invade today but will remain VFR through noon. Cigs will
then begin a slow lowering to MVFR by afternoon then to IFR before
sunset. Most sites will fall to LIFR and a few possibly to VLIFR
levels before sunrise Sat. There will be prevailing -SHRA with a few
mixed areas of +RA and even a few TSRA. This will move from west to
east first moving into BTR shortly before noon and into GPT by mid
afternoon. Vis could be a problem with the +RA areas. The sh/ts will
stay with all areas until dissipating from west to east starting in
BTR by 7pm and ending in GPT by 11pm. Winds will be an issue as well
with coastal locations having the strongest. Wind speeds sustained
near 20kt will gust as high as 35kt near the coast but will be a bit
weaker for inland sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024

Flags for small craft advisory conditions will remain as the next
sfc low will move through the northern gulf later today. Some strong
to severe storms could also accompany this low but will quickly move
east tonight. Winds ahead of this low will be in the upper 20kt
range with gusts over gale force and should be frequent enough to
change the gale watch to a warning. The next system after this will
be Monday. Strong storms and wind speeds are likely with this one as
well. Winds will shift around the compass with each system within a
12 to 24 hour period for each. The Monday system should exit stage
right by Tue morning with strong NW winds slowly easing through mid
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  42  57  37 / 100  90   0   0
BTR  63  44  61  40 / 100  60   0   0
ASD  65  46  61  40 / 100 100   0   0
MSY  66  48  60  44 / 100  90   0   0
GPT  64  48  60  41 /  90 100   0   0
PQL  67  48  64  39 /  80 100   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ046-056>060-064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ530-534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Saturday for
     GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ570.

MS...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for
     MSZ083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
     for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST Saturday for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE