Flash Flood Warning 89, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
707 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine continues to move generally northeast toward
the eastern portions of Vermillion Bay. Landfall should be around
sunset this evening and the storm will continue to move north and
east into southern MS by late tonight and early Thursday morning.
Overall, no impact changes from the overnight package with the
highest winds residing along and west of I-55 and south of I-12.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will continue to spread over the
region increasing the flash flood potential across the region.
Otherwise, a dry slot seems to have developed just east of the
center which is likely going to further entrain into the system as
it continues to move north and east...so any additional
strengthening of the hurricane will be extremely limited. With the
dry air entrainment, think that some of the outer bands will start
to rotate leading to a higher tornado potential, especially north
and east of the center of Francine. Storm surge will also begin to
increase with max surge generally along the Terrebonne coast. That
said, as water piles into the tidal lakes remember it will likely
take time especially with onshore flow continuing for some of the
water to drain on the backside of the storm, which may result in
high waters for a couple of high tide cycles.

The storm as it pulls northward away from the region, expect dry
conditions to take over leading to much better weather going into
the day on Thursday. Dry northwesterly flow will set up with much
of any residual rain/storms move east and north away from the
CWA. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dry northwesterly flow will continue into the start of the
weekend as we remain on the western periphery of the upper level
trough over the southeast U.S. A weak vort/mid level impulse will
develop and move southward within this flow, which should bring
with it some increased POPs by Sunday and into the start of the
new workweek. Temperatures will again increase starting Friday and
into the weekend and beyond, however, with the upper trough in
place, expect temperatures to only climb into the upper 80s or
lower 90s. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine has made landfall in the Terrebonne Parish and
is progressing north-northeastward across the TAF sites tonight.
Ceilings at all airfields are either below, or soon to be below,
IFR conditions. Low level wind shear will be an issue at all
stations through 12/12 utc. Have indicated IFR conditions in the
prevailing groups. The eye is currently over KHUM with much of the
heavier rain done for this site. The eyewall is anticipated to
move near KMSY, KNEW, and KHDC potentially bringing gusts of 50-60
kts. Elsewhere, heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms and sustained
winds of 25-35 kts and gusts of 30-40 kts continue overnight.
Behind the eye, winds become west- southwesterly. Wind and rain
will gradually diminish overnight with rain tapering off from
south to north from 12/06 utc - 12/12 utc. A low stratus/cumulus
deck between 1-1.5 kft will move in from off the Gulf behind the
system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue across the local waters as
Hurricane Francine moves through the outer waters south of
Terrebonne Bay. The hurricane will make landfall later this
afternoon or early evening. Dangerous conditions will persist
through the overnight and into early Thursday before improvement
begins as the storm moves more to the north and east away from the
region. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  79  64  85 / 100  40  10   0
BTR  72  85  67  89 / 100  20   0   0
ASD  72  85  68  88 / 100  20  10   0
MSY  72  85  70  87 / 100  10   0   0
GPT  72  85  69  86 / 100  30  10  10
PQL  75  88  72  90 / 100  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Watch for LAZ058-060-076>078-080-082>084-087>089.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-058-060-064-069>071-
     076>084-087>090.

     Hurricane Warning for LAZ046>048-056-057-059-065>068-085-086.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ530.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-
     572-575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ550-570.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

GM...     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-
     575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ570.

&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

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