Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
322 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Convective development has been noted across southern Mississippi
over the past hour. Higher mid-level moisture and a weak boundary
has aided in that development this afternoon. A pocket of higher
DCAPE has been noted across the Florida Parishes with values of
900-1000 j/kg where the low-levels have been able to mix out. With the cluster of
thunderstorms coming from Southern Mississippi heading that way,
that area could see a higher threat of strong to severe winds.
Also, SBCAPE and MLCAPE values are around 5000 j/kg and 3500
j/kg, respectively, so that cluster and its associated outflow
boundary should continue to push through the area moving to the
southwest. That main cluster should push through the area
throughout the afternoon and evening until the sun goes down or it
moves out of the area.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today in terms of temperatures
and convective coverage. PW will still remain elevated around
2-2.2 inches across the area tomorrow as the pocket of mid-level
moisture hangs around. This, with the help of the weak boundary
across the area, will aid in storm development tomorrow. Much of
the convection will again be dictated by outflow boundaries as
well as sea and lake-breeze boundaries. Surface mixing will help
DCAPE get up to around 900-1000 j/kg tomorrow, similar to day.
Thus strong to severe damaging winds seems possible again tomorrow
with the strongest storms. Convective development seems a little
later tomorrow with the northerly flow aloft, so temps were bumped
up slightly, bringing us to heat advisory conditions. Of course,
if development happens earlier, then the heat will not be as bad
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The mid-level ridge will continue to slide westward this weekend,
putting us more firmly into northerly flow aloft. This will help
us stay somewhat dry this weekend. The surface high over the
eastern CONUS is also expected to slide westward and place itself
over us this weekend. That will also help to keep us dry, but it
will also cause us to heat up. So, heat headlines will likely be
needed into the weekend.

Medium-range guidance suggests that troughing over the eastern
CONUS will throw down another front sometime either late Sunday or
Monday. This time of year, it is hard for a front to make it all
the way down here, but with northerly flow, it is possible. If
that were to happen, we will "cool" down slightly while upping
rain chances. That is something to just monitor at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Convective development is expected to begin in the next few hours
across the area. Exactly where storms will form is tough to nail
down in this summertime pattern, so mainly VCTS has been carried
with most terminals for this afternoon and into the evening. There
seems to be higher confidence in storms impacting HDC around
22-00z this evening where a weak boundary is laid up, so a TEMPO
group has been put in there. However, with the very weak steering,
hat other storms forms and where they go is still a question. As
they form, we'll get a better idea of what will happen. Any
convection that does form is expected to dissipate shortly after
sunset. Outside of convection, all terminals will be VFR for the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mostly benign marine conditions will persist through the forecast
period. Thunderstorm development will be most likely each morning
during the period. A surface high looks to move over the waters
this weekend as parent ridge slides westward across the SW CONUS.
A front is possible to move through the area early next week, so
that will be a focus of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  75  95 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  80  98  78  98 /  30  60  30  30
ASD  77  96  76  95 /  20  50  20  30
MSY  80  95  79  95 /  40  60  30  30
GPT  79  93  78  93 /  20  50  20  30
PQL  78  96  76  96 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
511 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

LAZ046>048-056>058-084>086-152245-
Iberville LA-Southern Livingston LA-Western Ascension LA-
Assumption LA-St. John The Baptist LA-West Baton Rouge LA-
St. James LA-East Baton Rouge LA-Eastern Ascension LA-
511 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST, ASCENSION, ST. JAMES, SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE,
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON, EASTERN IBERVILLE, SOUTHWESTERN EAST BATON
ROUGE AND NORTHEASTERN ASSUMPTION PARISHES THROUGH 545 PM CDT
...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Port Allen to near Prairieville to 6 miles
north of Lutcher. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Baker, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Plaquemine, Port Allen,
Oak Hills Place, St. Gabriel, Gramercy, Addis, Lutcher, Brusly, White
Castle, Sorrento, French Settlement, Westminster, Geismar,
Shenandoah, Old Jefferson, and South Vacherie.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 145 and 198.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 1 and 7.
 Interstate 110 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 9116 3037 9094 3019 9060 2989 9067
      2990 9069 2990 9071 2991 9073 2992 9078
      2991 9079 2991 9086 3002 9113 3037 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 019DEG 18KT 3049 9127 3029 9103 3015 9071

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
516 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

LAZ076-079-080-MSZ083-086-152300-
Southeast St. Tammany LA-Northern St. Tammany LA-
Southwestern St. Tammany LA-Northern Hancock MS-Southern Hancock MS-
516 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM CDT
...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Picayune to near Lacombe. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, Pearl River, Kiln,
Pearlington, Lacombe, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space Center, and
Slidell Airport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 259 and 273.
 Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 16.
 Interstate 12 between mile markers 71 and 84.
 Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8930 3015 8948 3016 8952 3013 8963
      3015 8963 3017 8968 3015 8973 3017 8974
      3015 8975 3022 8987 3024 8999 3030 9002
      3033 9007 3050 8975 3046 8969 3046 8965
      3050 8964 3052 8954 3060 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 329DEG 16KT 3050 8961 3028 9002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
535 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 12 SSW Mandeville       30.20N 90.12W
08/15/2024  M41 MPH          GMZ530             LA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XPTN Pontchartrain Causeway.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
536 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

LAZ058-060-077-078-087-152300-
Western Orleans LA-St. Charles LA-Eastern Orleans LA-
St. John The Baptist LA-Upper Jefferson LA-
536 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST,
NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES, NORTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON PARISHES THROUGH 600 PM CDT
...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from 8 miles northwest of New Orleans to near St. Rose to
Killona. Movement was south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Metairie, Hahnville, Laplace, East New Orleans, Reserve,
Avondale, Jefferson, Harahan, Montz, River Ridge, Ama, Destrehan, St.
Rose, Killona, Norco, Elmwood, Edgard, Wallace, and Waggaman.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 211 and 234, and
between mile markers 237 and 255.
 Interstate 310 between mile markers 1 and 10.
 Interstate 510 between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Interstate 610 between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9066 3007 9066 3009 9035 3005 9011
      3008 9000 3017 8989 3013 8982 3018 8975
      3017 8971 3018 8968 3008 8982 2999 9001
      2991 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 356DEG 24KT 3017 8999 3003 9027 3001 9051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TJS