Alert archive / Louisiana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2024

Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS New Orleans, LA

January 24, 2024Saint Tammany Parish, Tangipahoa Parish, Washington Parish, Louisiana; Pearl River County, Walthall County, Mississippi

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this flash flood warning at Jan 24, 2024, 12:27 PM CST for Saint Tammany Parish, Tangipahoa Parish, Washington Parish, Louisiana; Pearl River County, Walthall County, Mississippi. It was in force for 8 hr. 13 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 24, 2024, 12:27 PM CST (18:27 UTC)
Expired
Jan 24, 2024, 8:39 PM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Pearl River County, MS, Walthall County, MS

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 24, 1:05 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD6 W Folsom, LAHighway 40 near Global Wildlife was flooded due to heavy rainfall.
Jan 24, 1:46 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD7 Wnw Covington, LAThe street in front of NWS Employees house was completely covered by water from heavy rainfall.
Jan 24, 1:49 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 E Covington, LAHigh water was encroaching on several businesses in downtown Covington on Boston Street.
Jan 24, 2:59 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD2 Ese Mandeville, LANWS Employee reports 6-12 inches of water over the roadways at least with water up to bumpers of cars.
Jan 24, 3:33 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD2 Ne Mandeville, LAFire Dept reports 6-12 inches of water over roads in Laurel Woods Subdivision in Mandeville, LA.
Jan 24, 3:58 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD4 W Folsom, LANWS Employee reports 6-12 inches of water over roads on S Mansfield Rd in Uneedus, LA.
Jan 24, 4:06 PM CSTRAIN 6.213 N Mandeville, LAMeasured since midnight.
Jan 24, 4:07 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 E Mandeville, LANWS Employee reports 8-12 inches of water over roadways on Girod St in Mandeville, LA.
Jan 24, 4:53 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD3 Se Covington, LAApproximately 6 inches of water covering lanes of US Hwy 190 from overflowing ditches.
Jan 24, 5:05 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Ese Mandeville, LAMultiple videos of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering a section of Florida Street.
Jan 24, 5:13 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Ese Mandeville, LAVideo showing water entering businesses on Hwy 190.
Jan 24, 5:20 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Ne Mandeville, LAVideos of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering neighborhood roads and partially submerged vehicles in ditches near Lonesome Road and Grande Maison Blvd.
Jan 24, 5:47 PM CSTFLASH FLOOD3 Ene Mandeville, LAPicture of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering neighborhood roads with a car half submerged in a low spot in the Quail Creek subdivision.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 12 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2024-01-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 102 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2024-01-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 328 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
102 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-111 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
596 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
328 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
402 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

622 
WGUS54 KLIX 241827
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242130-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0013.240124T1827Z-240124T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1227 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 1227 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
  have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 
  hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, 
  Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush, 
  Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the following Interstates...
	Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 30 and 31.
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 38 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
6 follow-up statements
334 
WGUS74 KLIX 241949
FFSLIX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
149 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242130-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Tammany LA-Tangipahoa LA-Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
Walthall MS-
149 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY, SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA AND 
WASHINGTON PARISHES AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN 
WALTHALL COUNTIES...

At 149 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington along 
with water covering local roads. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, 
  Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush, 
  Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the following Interstates...
	Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
009 
WGUS54 KLIX 242112
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242230-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
312 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 312 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
  rain in water approaching businesses in downtown Covington. 
  Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall 
  rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 
  to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Public reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, 
  Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush, 
  Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the following Interstates...
	Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
565 
WGUS54 KLIX 242203
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242330-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 530 PM CST.

* At 403 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
  rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington. 
  Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall 
  rate is 1 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 
  to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Public reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, 
  Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush, 
  Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the following Interstates...
	Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
196 
WGUS54 KLIX 242309
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250130-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
509 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 730 PM CST.

* At 509 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy 
  rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington. 
  Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall 
  rate is 1 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 
  to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Public reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, Varnado, 
  Folsom, Sun, Enon, Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the follwing Interstate...
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
      3049 9050

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
490 
WGUS54 KLIX 250110
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250245-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
710 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 845 PM CST.

* At 710 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain leading to flash 
  flooding. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected 
  rainfall rate is 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts up 
  to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, Varnado, 
  Folsom, Sun, Enon, Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.

This includes the follwing Interstate...
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
      3049 9050

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

$$

Zeringue
251 
WGUS74 KLIX 250239
FFSLIX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
839 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250249-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Tammany LA-Tangipahoa LA-Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
Walthall MS-
839 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY, SOUTHERN 
TANGIPAHOA AND WASHINGTON PARISHES AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER AND 
SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD 
ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
      3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
      3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
      3049 9050

$$

KLG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jan 24, 12:02 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 24, 12:02 PM CST, 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1202 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Very active 24 to 48 hours in store with multiple impacts some of
which could be significant and even possibly life threatening if
features line up in a way we would prefer not to see.

BLUF...Widespread moderate to heavy rain is the greatest concern and
the Flood Watch has been extended to include all of the area with
the exception of the immediate coast of a few LA parishes. Next is
the the possibility of severe weather with the main concerns being
straightline winds and a few tornadoes, next sea fog, finally river
flooding could become a bigger concern over the coming days.

1.  So, as mentioned the greatest concern is the potential for Flash
    Flooding. It is beginning to look more and more likely that a
    band and of heavy rain will develop and stall over the region
    with the possibility of some sites seeing upwards of 9" of rain
    in less than 24 hours. That would be before 12z Thursday with
    additional rain likely on Thursday. Where exactly that occurs is
    unknown and will determine how significant the impacts are. If
    that band stalls over generally rural parts of SELA and southern
    MS the biggest issue could be some flash flooding and then river
    flooding taking over. If that band lines up over any of our larger
    population centers it would not be out of the question that Flash
    Flood Emergencies could be issued as the rain will be heavy,
    efficient, and likely persisting for more than a few hours. Whatever
    falls today and tonight will have a barring on the impacts for
    Thursday and into Thursday night.

2.  Second concern is the risk for severe weather today although the
    risk for severe weather pales in comparison to the threat of flash
    flooding it is still there with the main concern being
    straight-line winds and a few tornadoes possible. The risk is
    contingent on a few things most notably being able to warm up into
    the lower 70s and convection firing out ahead of the main line. The
    risk should gradually decrease late this afternoon and this evening
    as convection consolidates into a line and the flash flood risk takes
    over.

3.  Sea fog remains a possible problem. This will mainly impact a more
    specific group (mainly mariners) but if sea fog can develop it could
    move inland especially over coastal MS heavily impacting locations
    like Gulfport and Biloxi.

4. 	Last river flooding, but depending on how much rain falls and
	exactly which basin it falls in. This will become more clear later
	today and tonight as we see where and how much rain has fallen.

We are already overachieving on the rain overnight as convection
was more numerous across the area shortly after midnight when we
weren't really anticipating much more than a few storms over the
far northwest by 8/9z. This convection has even had lightning as
far east as Slidell and before 9z ASD already recorded around
3/4" of rain. This is already more and earlier than expected. Lift
is increasing across the region and almost the entire suite of CAMs
and multiple HRRR runs in a row all suggest strong LL convergence
across the northwestern half of the CWA through the day and
possibly into the early evening hours. While the LL convergence
increases through the day the upper jet will sharpen up,
strengthen and slide east just enough to place the CWA close to
the RRQ while a weaker jet rounds the ridge over the central
Caribbean and Bahamas. This will enhance the diffluence aloft. The
combination of LL convergence and upper lvl diffluence almost
directly on top of each other is extremely favorable for
convective development. Obviously we know we already have
instability in place given the thunder that has already occurred
overnight when the instability was expected to be meager at that
time. We have the lift and instability so now what about forcing.
That will not be absent as we will see a steady increase in the h5
winds as multiple subtle impulses are already working through the
southwest flow aloft while the main s/w doesn't push through the
Lower MS Valley till late Thursday (and that is what could be the
main problem maker...we will hit that in just a second). Looking
at moisture availability and we will have no shortage of moisture.
This continues to increase and as of last nights sndg we were
already sitting at a very impressive 1.65" which is right at the
record for the day. The PW is expected to increase even more and
could approach 1.8" (mesoanalysis shows that 1.8" and greater PWs
is already working into the western portions of the CWA) and this
would be in the top 20 measurements for the month of Jan all time.
The is pretty extreme for this time of the year. All of this
combined suggests robust convection with locally heavy rain almost
a foregone conclusion. Add in the increasing upper lvl diffluence
and K index readings possibly approaching 40C today and again
tomorrow and the efficiency of thunderstorms will be very
high...likely 1-2" in less than 30 mins with many storms. This is
all impressive from a heavy rain standpoint but this is not the
greatest issue though, the problem is that the boundary will stall
over the CWA and will be parallel to the mid lvl flow and this is
a bad recipe. At this time it would be foolish to say exactly
where that stall could occur but it is looking more and more
likely the line will lay up somewhere across coastal central LA
and stretch to northeast through SELA and into southern MS. That
said it could easily stall 20-30 miles to the west or 20-30 miles
to the east and that now puts all of SELA in the potential...this
includes the metros of NOLA and BTR. Wherever this line does start
to hang up you can expect to see storms train over the same
locations for probably 3-6 hours if not longer. This would be a
disaster as rainfall amounts WILL quickly accumulate and it is
highly likely there will be a band of rain ranging from 5 to 8"
inches with locally higher amounts possibly greater than 11" (some
of the CAMs and multiple runs of the HRRR are indicating 10
inches or more in some areas) and this is all before 12z tomorrow.
With that we extended the Flood Watch to include all of the area
with the exception of coastal sections of Lafourche, Jefferson,
Plaquemines, and St Bernard.

As mentioned earlier this isn't it for the rain as the main s/w is
still 6 to 12 hours back and with the boundary still stalled over
the area additional storms are expected and this will just exacerbate
any issues we have today and tonight. When the next 48 hours is done
even though the setup is not exactly the same we could see similar
amounts to the March of 2016 Flood event. That was also a very
disastrous river flooding situation but for those impacts to occur
again it will be absolutely dependent on where the heaviest rain
falls.

As for the severe aspect. There are a couple of keys things that
need to happen for this to be realized and first is to get the mid
60s and possibly even upper 60s dewpoints to continue to push
farther inland and as of 8z that seemed to not be in doubt as REG
and LFT both already had dewpoints at 67 but at 10z if these were
correct, LFT and PTN were now up to 71 while ARA was sitting at
69. With dewpoints that high already (and higher than anticipated)
only very minor heating today will get the instability to climb
quickly. This will also likely lead to steep LL lapse rates which
we will need for severe weather to occur otherwise the storms may
not be able to tap into the increasing LL jet today. Speaking of
the LL jet as mentioned in the section about the rainfall a
potential LL jet is expected to develop and increase through the
day. Those winds will generally be out of the south and maybe SSW
while the sfc winds will remain out of the SSE and SE. This will
provide ample shear in the LL with 0-1 and 0-3km SRH in the
150-200 and 200 to possibly 300 m2/s2 range and that is greater
than what was expected. If we can heat up to 72/73 which seems
like a lock now, MLCAPE values could approach 1500-2k J/kg and
more of a concern is the 0-3km CAPE which could exceed 150 J/kg.
That said the deeper shear is lacking with 0-6km bulk shear ahead
of the boundary should be around 30-35kts. This is not high but
likely sufficient enough to get a few organized storms to develop.
If storms want to fully utilize that environment they will have
to develop ahead of the main band and do so before convection
tries to just start developing everywhere as the boundary
approaches. The lower bulk shear would tend to lead to somewhere
between multicellular and separate organized cells. However, with
the increasing lift and increasing instability there is a chance
that convection could quickly overwhelm the environment and we
then quickly transition to flash flooding. SPC does have a Slight
risk across much of the area given some of the key features we
discussed earlier and it looks like if severe storms were to occur
the main time frame would be mid late morning through early mid
afternoon, those initial stronger storms. By mid after we should
begin to see things congeal as the line of storms starts to really
focus in on our area as the boundary stalls.

Fog has not been as big an issue overnight but we are starting to
see sea fog develop over the coastal waters. That said the fog that
was developing earlier over the land likely mixed out due to the
increase mixing from the rain. With that fog will likely become more
attached to the coast and marine areas as the sea fog continues to
develop.

River flooding is going to be absolutely dependent on location of
the rain and how much falls. Until then at this time we will likely
see at least minor river flooding in the usual problem areas but it
would be not be a surprise to see river flooding maybe approaching
moderate category for areas along the Tangipahoa river and east to
the Pearl River (the Pearl River being a longer stem river will be
more dependent on rain fall farther north and just south of the Ross
Barnett so what ever rain falls over our area will have only minor
impacts on the Pearl). /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Not much focus was placed on the extended forecast mainly as
outside of the Friday night and Saturday system the forecast looks
quiet, cool, and dry. As for the Friday night/Saturday system. It
looks like we will not get completely cleaned out Thursday night
and it will not take long to recover with PWs expected back in the
1.3 to 1.5" range. This system will bring additional rain to the
area and we could see another widespread 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts on top of what occurs in the next 36 hours. If we
have river flooding occurring this could either exacerbate those
issues or at the least prolong it. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Between moderate to heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, fog, and
overall anomalously high low level moisture, IFR to LIFR
conditions will be common through the next 36 hours. While there
could be some temporary breaks in the low level clouds, confidence
in the timing of any of these breaks is low, so they are not
represented in the TAFs. Dense fog reducing visibility to one
quarter mile or less will be possible tonight, especially at the
terminals closer to water sources.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Sea fog is finally developing and should continue to develop and
spread ahead of an approaching cold front with the advection of
warm, moist air over cooler waters. Dew points are expected to be
about 10 degrees higher than the SSTs, so the warmer air will
condense into fog as it cools to the SSTs. Once the front moves
through the area this weekend, the fog threat will decrease as
drier air filters into the area. The other concern is gusty
gradient winds ahead of the front, but that will only get to
advisory criteria before the front clears the waters and winds
relax. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  62  71  59 / 100 100  90  60
BTR  74  66  75  62 / 100  90  90  60
ASD  71  61  72  58 / 100 100 100  70
MSY  73  63  72  60 /  90  90  90  70
GPT  67  59  68  57 /  70  90  90  70
PQL  71  61  73  57 /  50  80  90  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>066-071-076>088-090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557.

&&

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...CAB

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 24, 9:06 AM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
906 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     Flash Flood      6 NNE Fort Adams        31.18N 91.53W
01/24/2024                   Wilkinson          MS   Emergency Mngr

            Local EM reported Lake Mary Road was flooded
            by heavy rainfall.

&&

MEFFER
Special weather statement, Jan 24, 10:12 AM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

MSZ069-070-241645-
Pike MS-Amite MS-
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM CST...

At 1012 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mccomb, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit, and Mccomb Airport.

This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 11
and 24.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 9026 3119 9044 3111 9053 3119 9065
      3124 9064 3135 9059 3135 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 227DEG 29KT 3121 9052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRK
Special weather statement, Jan 24, 10:44 AM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1044 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

LAZ071-MSZ070-071-241730-
Northern Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-Walthall MS-
1044 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TANGIPAHOA PARISH, NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM CST...

At 1044 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Osyka, or 17 miles northeast of Greensburg, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tylertown, Osyka, and Salem.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 64 and 66.
 Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 9008 3133 9004 3122 9003 3100 9033
      3100 9034 3098 9034 3092 9041 3097 9053
      3102 9052 3125 9039 3135 9031 3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 222DEG 26KT 3100 9046

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRK
Local storm report, Jan 24, 10:58 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1058 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Woodville         31.12N 91.30W
01/24/2024                   Wilkinson          MS   Broadcast Media

            A video on social media showed a wide swath
            of flowing water covering a roadway near
            Woodville.

&&

MEFFER
Special weather statement, Jan 24, 11:59 AM CST, 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

LAZ039-MSZ077-241845-
Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
1159 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CST...

At 1158 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Enon, or 10 miles south of Franklinton, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Franklinton, Varnado, Enon, Crossroads, and Angie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 8970 3078 8974 3074 8983 3067 9005
      3069 9014 3071 9016 3081 9022 3100 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 233DEG 33KT 3070 9009

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRK
Local storm report, Jan 24, 12:22 PM CST, 5 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1222 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Flash Flood      6 WNW Lettsworth        30.96N 91.80W
01/24/2024                   Pointe Coupee      LA   Broadcast Media

            A local news outlet reported several homes
            in Bordelon Subdivision taking on water from
            heavy rainfall.

&&

MEFFER

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 23, 10:46 PM CSTDense Fog AdvisoryLIXAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 13 more11 hr
Jan 24, 1:42 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge33 min
Jan 24, 2:17 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Feliciana, West Feliciana28 min
Jan 24, 5:27 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana2 hr
Jan 24, 6:29 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana5 hr
Jan 24, 8:44 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, West Feliciana3 hr
Jan 24, 10:16 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXEast Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge3 hr
Jan 24, 10:31 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany7 days
Jan 24, 10:35 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany67 hr
Jan 24, 10:35 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany44 hr
Jan 24, 10:37 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXWashington18 days
Jan 24, 10:37 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany34 days
Jan 24, 10:42 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXTangipahoa6 days
Jan 24, 10:46 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany5 days
Jan 24, 11:28 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX32 min
Jan 24, 11:44 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningLIX61 min
Jan 24, 11:59 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXWashington46 min
Jan 24, 12:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXWashington32 min
Jan 24, 12:57 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXWashington33 min
Jan 24, 1:01 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, Assumption, Lafourche, Livingston, Saint Charles, Saint James and 2 more9 hr
Jan 24, 1:43 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany, Washington5 hr
Jan 24, 3:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXJefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles99 min
Jan 24, 4:01 PM CSTDense Fog AdvisoryLIXAscension, Assumption, Jefferson, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines and 6 more17 hr
Jan 24, 4:49 PM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatLIXSaint Tammany5 hr
Jan 24, 10:12 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPike33 min
Jan 24, 10:37 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXAmite, Pike, Walthall3 hr
Jan 24, 10:42 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXPearl River69 hr
Jan 24, 10:42 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXPearl River47 hr
Jan 24, 10:44 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPike46 min
Jan 24, 10:52 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXPike, Walthall38 min
Jan 24, 1:32 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPearl River43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2024Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2024Every flash flood warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.