Alert archive / Louisiana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2024
Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS New Orleans, LA
NWS New Orleans, LA issued this flash flood warning at Jan 24, 2024, 12:27 PM CST for Saint Tammany Parish, Tangipahoa Parish, Washington Parish, Louisiana; Pearl River County, Walthall County, Mississippi. It was in force for 8 hr. 13 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 24, 2024, 12:27 PM CST (18:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2024, 8:39 PM CST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New Orleans, LA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Pearl River County, MS, Walthall County, MS
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 1:05 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 6 W Folsom, LA | Highway 40 near Global Wildlife was flooded due to heavy rainfall. |
| Jan 24, 1:46 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 7 Wnw Covington, LA | The street in front of NWS Employees house was completely covered by water from heavy rainfall. |
| Jan 24, 1:49 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Covington, LA | High water was encroaching on several businesses in downtown Covington on Boston Street. |
| Jan 24, 2:59 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Ese Mandeville, LA | NWS Employee reports 6-12 inches of water over the roadways at least with water up to bumpers of cars. |
| Jan 24, 3:33 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Ne Mandeville, LA | Fire Dept reports 6-12 inches of water over roads in Laurel Woods Subdivision in Mandeville, LA. |
| Jan 24, 3:58 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 4 W Folsom, LA | NWS Employee reports 6-12 inches of water over roads on S Mansfield Rd in Uneedus, LA. |
| Jan 24, 4:06 PM CST | RAIN 6.21 | 3 N Mandeville, LA | Measured since midnight. |
| Jan 24, 4:07 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Mandeville, LA | NWS Employee reports 8-12 inches of water over roadways on Girod St in Mandeville, LA. |
| Jan 24, 4:53 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Se Covington, LA | Approximately 6 inches of water covering lanes of US Hwy 190 from overflowing ditches. |
| Jan 24, 5:05 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ese Mandeville, LA | Multiple videos of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering a section of Florida Street. |
| Jan 24, 5:13 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ese Mandeville, LA | Video showing water entering businesses on Hwy 190. |
| Jan 24, 5:20 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ne Mandeville, LA | Videos of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering neighborhood roads and partially submerged vehicles in ditches near Lonesome Road and Grande Maison Blvd. |
| Jan 24, 5:47 PM CST | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Ene Mandeville, LA | Picture of approximately 6-12 inches of water covering neighborhood roads with a car half submerged in a low spot in the Quail Creek subdivision. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 12 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 102 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -111 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 596 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 328 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 402 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.4
The text
As transmitted.
622
WGUS54 KLIX 241827
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242130-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0013.240124T1827Z-240124T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1227 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
* Until 330 PM CST.
* At 1227 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain
have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1
hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs,
Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush,
Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 30 and 31.
Interstate 12 between mile markers 38 and 67.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue6 follow-up statements
334
WGUS74 KLIX 241949
FFSLIX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
149 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242130-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Tammany LA-Tangipahoa LA-Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
Walthall MS-
149 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY, SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA AND
WASHINGTON PARISHES AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
WALTHALL COUNTIES...
At 149 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy
rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington along
with water covering local roads. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Public reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs,
Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush,
Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue009
WGUS54 KLIX 242112
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242230-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
312 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
* Until 430 PM CST.
* At 312 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy
rain in water approaching businesses in downtown Covington.
Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall
rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Public reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs,
Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush,
Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue565
WGUS54 KLIX 242203
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-242330-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240124T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
* Until 530 PM CST.
* At 403 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy
rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington.
Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall
rate is 1 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Public reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs,
Tylertown, Varnado, Madisonville, Folsom, Sun, Enon, Bush,
Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 55 in Louisiana near mile marker 31.
Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 67.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8955 3101 8954 3035 9005 3049 9051
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue196
WGUS54 KLIX 242309
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250130-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
509 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
* Until 730 PM CST.
* At 509 PM CST, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy
rain with water approaching businesses in downtown Covington.
Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall
rate is 1 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Public reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, Varnado,
Folsom, Sun, Enon, Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the follwing Interstate...
Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 57.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National
Weather Service when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
3049 9050
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue490
WGUS54 KLIX 250110
FFWLIX
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250245-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
710 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Southern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Northwestern Pearl River County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
* Until 845 PM CST.
* At 710 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain leading to flash
flooding. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The expected
rainfall rate is 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts up
to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Hammond, Bogalusa, Covington, Franklinton, Abita Springs, Varnado,
Folsom, Sun, Enon, Crossroads, Dexter, Robert, Natalbany and Angie.
This includes the follwing Interstate...
Interstate 12 between mile markers 40 and 56.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
3049 9050
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1 INCH IN 1 HOUR
$$
Zeringue251
WGUS74 KLIX 250239
FFSLIX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
839 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
LAC103-105-117-MSC109-147-250249-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240125T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Tammany LA-Tangipahoa LA-Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
Walthall MS-
839 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY, SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA AND WASHINGTON PARISHES AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD
ADVISORY...
LAT...LON 3124 9004 3118 9003 3118 9001 3113 9001
3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8984
3100 8961 3048 9000 3051 9016 3040 9021
3049 9050
$$
KLGWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jan 24, 12:02 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 24, 12:02 PM CST, 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1202 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Very active 24 to 48 hours in store with multiple impacts some of
which could be significant and even possibly life threatening if
features line up in a way we would prefer not to see.
BLUF...Widespread moderate to heavy rain is the greatest concern and
the Flood Watch has been extended to include all of the area with
the exception of the immediate coast of a few LA parishes. Next is
the the possibility of severe weather with the main concerns being
straightline winds and a few tornadoes, next sea fog, finally river
flooding could become a bigger concern over the coming days.
1. So, as mentioned the greatest concern is the potential for Flash
Flooding. It is beginning to look more and more likely that a
band and of heavy rain will develop and stall over the region
with the possibility of some sites seeing upwards of 9" of rain
in less than 24 hours. That would be before 12z Thursday with
additional rain likely on Thursday. Where exactly that occurs is
unknown and will determine how significant the impacts are. If
that band stalls over generally rural parts of SELA and southern
MS the biggest issue could be some flash flooding and then river
flooding taking over. If that band lines up over any of our larger
population centers it would not be out of the question that Flash
Flood Emergencies could be issued as the rain will be heavy,
efficient, and likely persisting for more than a few hours. Whatever
falls today and tonight will have a barring on the impacts for
Thursday and into Thursday night.
2. Second concern is the risk for severe weather today although the
risk for severe weather pales in comparison to the threat of flash
flooding it is still there with the main concern being
straight-line winds and a few tornadoes possible. The risk is
contingent on a few things most notably being able to warm up into
the lower 70s and convection firing out ahead of the main line. The
risk should gradually decrease late this afternoon and this evening
as convection consolidates into a line and the flash flood risk takes
over.
3. Sea fog remains a possible problem. This will mainly impact a more
specific group (mainly mariners) but if sea fog can develop it could
move inland especially over coastal MS heavily impacting locations
like Gulfport and Biloxi.
4. Last river flooding, but depending on how much rain falls and
exactly which basin it falls in. This will become more clear later
today and tonight as we see where and how much rain has fallen.
We are already overachieving on the rain overnight as convection
was more numerous across the area shortly after midnight when we
weren't really anticipating much more than a few storms over the
far northwest by 8/9z. This convection has even had lightning as
far east as Slidell and before 9z ASD already recorded around
3/4" of rain. This is already more and earlier than expected. Lift
is increasing across the region and almost the entire suite of CAMs
and multiple HRRR runs in a row all suggest strong LL convergence
across the northwestern half of the CWA through the day and
possibly into the early evening hours. While the LL convergence
increases through the day the upper jet will sharpen up,
strengthen and slide east just enough to place the CWA close to
the RRQ while a weaker jet rounds the ridge over the central
Caribbean and Bahamas. This will enhance the diffluence aloft. The
combination of LL convergence and upper lvl diffluence almost
directly on top of each other is extremely favorable for
convective development. Obviously we know we already have
instability in place given the thunder that has already occurred
overnight when the instability was expected to be meager at that
time. We have the lift and instability so now what about forcing.
That will not be absent as we will see a steady increase in the h5
winds as multiple subtle impulses are already working through the
southwest flow aloft while the main s/w doesn't push through the
Lower MS Valley till late Thursday (and that is what could be the
main problem maker...we will hit that in just a second). Looking
at moisture availability and we will have no shortage of moisture.
This continues to increase and as of last nights sndg we were
already sitting at a very impressive 1.65" which is right at the
record for the day. The PW is expected to increase even more and
could approach 1.8" (mesoanalysis shows that 1.8" and greater PWs
is already working into the western portions of the CWA) and this
would be in the top 20 measurements for the month of Jan all time.
The is pretty extreme for this time of the year. All of this
combined suggests robust convection with locally heavy rain almost
a foregone conclusion. Add in the increasing upper lvl diffluence
and K index readings possibly approaching 40C today and again
tomorrow and the efficiency of thunderstorms will be very
high...likely 1-2" in less than 30 mins with many storms. This is
all impressive from a heavy rain standpoint but this is not the
greatest issue though, the problem is that the boundary will stall
over the CWA and will be parallel to the mid lvl flow and this is
a bad recipe. At this time it would be foolish to say exactly
where that stall could occur but it is looking more and more
likely the line will lay up somewhere across coastal central LA
and stretch to northeast through SELA and into southern MS. That
said it could easily stall 20-30 miles to the west or 20-30 miles
to the east and that now puts all of SELA in the potential...this
includes the metros of NOLA and BTR. Wherever this line does start
to hang up you can expect to see storms train over the same
locations for probably 3-6 hours if not longer. This would be a
disaster as rainfall amounts WILL quickly accumulate and it is
highly likely there will be a band of rain ranging from 5 to 8"
inches with locally higher amounts possibly greater than 11" (some
of the CAMs and multiple runs of the HRRR are indicating 10
inches or more in some areas) and this is all before 12z tomorrow.
With that we extended the Flood Watch to include all of the area
with the exception of coastal sections of Lafourche, Jefferson,
Plaquemines, and St Bernard.
As mentioned earlier this isn't it for the rain as the main s/w is
still 6 to 12 hours back and with the boundary still stalled over
the area additional storms are expected and this will just exacerbate
any issues we have today and tonight. When the next 48 hours is done
even though the setup is not exactly the same we could see similar
amounts to the March of 2016 Flood event. That was also a very
disastrous river flooding situation but for those impacts to occur
again it will be absolutely dependent on where the heaviest rain
falls.
As for the severe aspect. There are a couple of keys things that
need to happen for this to be realized and first is to get the mid
60s and possibly even upper 60s dewpoints to continue to push
farther inland and as of 8z that seemed to not be in doubt as REG
and LFT both already had dewpoints at 67 but at 10z if these were
correct, LFT and PTN were now up to 71 while ARA was sitting at
69. With dewpoints that high already (and higher than anticipated)
only very minor heating today will get the instability to climb
quickly. This will also likely lead to steep LL lapse rates which
we will need for severe weather to occur otherwise the storms may
not be able to tap into the increasing LL jet today. Speaking of
the LL jet as mentioned in the section about the rainfall a
potential LL jet is expected to develop and increase through the
day. Those winds will generally be out of the south and maybe SSW
while the sfc winds will remain out of the SSE and SE. This will
provide ample shear in the LL with 0-1 and 0-3km SRH in the
150-200 and 200 to possibly 300 m2/s2 range and that is greater
than what was expected. If we can heat up to 72/73 which seems
like a lock now, MLCAPE values could approach 1500-2k J/kg and
more of a concern is the 0-3km CAPE which could exceed 150 J/kg.
That said the deeper shear is lacking with 0-6km bulk shear ahead
of the boundary should be around 30-35kts. This is not high but
likely sufficient enough to get a few organized storms to develop.
If storms want to fully utilize that environment they will have
to develop ahead of the main band and do so before convection
tries to just start developing everywhere as the boundary
approaches. The lower bulk shear would tend to lead to somewhere
between multicellular and separate organized cells. However, with
the increasing lift and increasing instability there is a chance
that convection could quickly overwhelm the environment and we
then quickly transition to flash flooding. SPC does have a Slight
risk across much of the area given some of the key features we
discussed earlier and it looks like if severe storms were to occur
the main time frame would be mid late morning through early mid
afternoon, those initial stronger storms. By mid after we should
begin to see things congeal as the line of storms starts to really
focus in on our area as the boundary stalls.
Fog has not been as big an issue overnight but we are starting to
see sea fog develop over the coastal waters. That said the fog that
was developing earlier over the land likely mixed out due to the
increase mixing from the rain. With that fog will likely become more
attached to the coast and marine areas as the sea fog continues to
develop.
River flooding is going to be absolutely dependent on location of
the rain and how much falls. Until then at this time we will likely
see at least minor river flooding in the usual problem areas but it
would be not be a surprise to see river flooding maybe approaching
moderate category for areas along the Tangipahoa river and east to
the Pearl River (the Pearl River being a longer stem river will be
more dependent on rain fall farther north and just south of the Ross
Barnett so what ever rain falls over our area will have only minor
impacts on the Pearl). /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Not much focus was placed on the extended forecast mainly as
outside of the Friday night and Saturday system the forecast looks
quiet, cool, and dry. As for the Friday night/Saturday system. It
looks like we will not get completely cleaned out Thursday night
and it will not take long to recover with PWs expected back in the
1.3 to 1.5" range. This system will bring additional rain to the
area and we could see another widespread 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts on top of what occurs in the next 36 hours. If we
have river flooding occurring this could either exacerbate those
issues or at the least prolong it. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Between moderate to heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, fog, and
overall anomalously high low level moisture, IFR to LIFR
conditions will be common through the next 36 hours. While there
could be some temporary breaks in the low level clouds, confidence
in the timing of any of these breaks is low, so they are not
represented in the TAFs. Dense fog reducing visibility to one
quarter mile or less will be possible tonight, especially at the
terminals closer to water sources.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
Sea fog is finally developing and should continue to develop and
spread ahead of an approaching cold front with the advection of
warm, moist air over cooler waters. Dew points are expected to be
about 10 degrees higher than the SSTs, so the warmer air will
condense into fog as it cools to the SSTs. Once the front moves
through the area this weekend, the fog threat will decrease as
drier air filters into the area. The other concern is gusty
gradient winds ahead of the front, but that will only get to
advisory criteria before the front clears the waters and winds
relax. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 62 71 59 / 100 100 90 60
BTR 74 66 75 62 / 100 90 90 60
ASD 71 61 72 58 / 100 100 100 70
MSY 73 63 72 60 / 90 90 90 70
GPT 67 59 68 57 / 70 90 90 70
PQL 71 61 73 57 / 50 80 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>066-071-076>088-090.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557.
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.
&&
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...CABIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 24, 9:06 AM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
906 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0905 AM Flash Flood 6 NNE Fort Adams 31.18N 91.53W
01/24/2024 Wilkinson MS Emergency Mngr
Local EM reported Lake Mary Road was flooded
by heavy rainfall.
&&
MEFFERSpecial weather statement, Jan 24, 10:12 AM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
MSZ069-070-241645-
Pike MS-Amite MS-
1012 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM CST...
At 1012 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mccomb, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit, and Mccomb Airport.
This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 11
and 24.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3133 9026 3119 9044 3111 9053 3119 9065
3124 9064 3135 9059 3135 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 227DEG 29KT 3121 9052
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JRKSpecial weather statement, Jan 24, 10:44 AM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1044 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
LAZ071-MSZ070-071-241730-
Northern Tangipahoa LA-Pike MS-Walthall MS-
1044 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TANGIPAHOA PARISH, NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM CST...
At 1044 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Osyka, or 17 miles northeast of Greensburg, moving
northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tylertown, Osyka, and Salem.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 64 and 66.
Interstate 55 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 5.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3133 9008 3133 9004 3122 9003 3100 9033
3100 9034 3098 9034 3092 9041 3097 9053
3102 9052 3125 9039 3135 9031 3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 222DEG 26KT 3100 9046
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JRKLocal storm report, Jan 24, 10:58 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1058 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1025 AM Flash Flood 1 NNW Woodville 31.12N 91.30W
01/24/2024 Wilkinson MS Broadcast Media
A video on social media showed a wide swath
of flowing water covering a roadway near
Woodville.
&&
MEFFERSpecial weather statement, Jan 24, 11:59 AM CST, 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
LAZ039-MSZ077-241845-
Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
1159 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CST...
At 1158 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Enon, or 10 miles south of Franklinton, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Franklinton, Varnado, Enon, Crossroads, and Angie.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3096 8970 3078 8974 3074 8983 3067 9005
3069 9014 3071 9016 3081 9022 3100 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 233DEG 33KT 3070 9009
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JRKLocal storm report, Jan 24, 12:22 PM CST, 5 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1222 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM Flash Flood 6 WNW Lettsworth 30.96N 91.80W
01/24/2024 Pointe Coupee LA Broadcast Media
A local news outlet reported several homes
in Bordelon Subdivision taking on water from
heavy rainfall.
&&
MEFFERThe office that day
Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 10:46 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | LIX | Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 13 more | 11 hr |
| Jan 24, 1:42 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge | 33 min |
| Jan 24, 2:17 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | East Feliciana, West Feliciana | 28 min |
| Jan 24, 5:27 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | LIX | Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana | 2 hr |
| Jan 24, 6:29 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana | 5 hr |
| Jan 24, 8:44 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, West Feliciana | 3 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:16 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | LIX | East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge | 3 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:31 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 7 days |
| Jan 24, 10:35 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 67 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:35 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 44 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:37 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Washington | 18 days |
| Jan 24, 10:37 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 34 days |
| Jan 24, 10:42 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Tangipahoa | 6 days |
| Jan 24, 10:46 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 5 days |
| Jan 24, 11:28 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 32 min | |
| Jan 24, 11:44 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | LIX | 61 min | |
| Jan 24, 11:59 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Washington | 46 min |
| Jan 24, 12:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LIX | Washington | 32 min |
| Jan 24, 12:57 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Washington | 33 min |
| Jan 24, 1:01 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Ascension, Assumption, Lafourche, Livingston, Saint Charles, Saint James and 2 more | 9 hr |
| Jan 24, 1:43 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany, Washington | 5 hr |
| Jan 24, 3:53 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles | 99 min |
| Jan 24, 4:01 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | LIX | Ascension, Assumption, Jefferson, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines and 6 more | 17 hr |
| Jan 24, 4:49 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Saint Tammany | 5 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:12 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Pike | 33 min |
| Jan 24, 10:37 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Amite, Pike, Walthall | 3 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:42 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Pearl River | 69 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:42 AM CST | River Flood Warning | LIX | Pearl River | 47 hr |
| Jan 24, 10:44 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Pike | 46 min |
| Jan 24, 10:52 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LIX | Pike, Walthall | 38 min |
| Jan 24, 1:32 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LIX | Pearl River | 43 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2024Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2024Every flash flood warning in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.