Wind Advisory 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Hardin County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Tyler County, TX

427 
WWUS74 KLCH 080915
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
315 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
082130-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WI.Y.0002.240108T1300Z-240109T0500Z/
/O.EXT.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.240108T1300Z-240110T0000Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-
Including the cities of Fort Johnson, Pickering, Leesville, 
Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, 
Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields,
Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, 
Cade, St. Martinville, Stephensville, Johnson Bayou, Hackberry, 
Grand Lake, Klondike, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, 
Rutherford Beach, De Quincy, Moss Bluff, Sulphur, Westlake, 
Vinton, Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Fenton, Welsh, Elton, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Iota, Gueydan, Meaux, Kaplan, 
Maurice, New Iberia, Jeanerette, Morgan City, Centerville, 
Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, Lake Charles, Carlyss,
Bell City, Hayes, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Morse, Abbeville, 
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Avery Island, Burns Point, 
and Cypremort Point
315 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Louisiana.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-082130-
/O.CAN.KLCH.WI.Y.0002.240108T1300Z-240109T0100Z/
/O.EXT.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.240108T1300Z-240110T0000Z/
Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-
Southern Newton-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-
Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, 
Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, 
Jasper, Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, 
Burkeville, Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, 
Call, Gist, Buna, Evadale, Deweyville, Beaumont, China, 
Mauriceville, Nederland, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, 
Sabine Pass, Orange, Bridge City, and Vidor
315 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Tyler, Hardin, Northern Jasper, Northern Newton, 
  Southern Jasper, Southern Newton, Upper Jefferson, Northern 
  Orange, Lower Jefferson and Southern Orange Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

366 
WWUS74 KLCH 082045
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
245 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-091100-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240110T0000Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Fort Johnson, Pickering, Leesville, 
Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, 
Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields,
Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, 
Cade, St. Martinville, Stephensville, Johnson Bayou, Hackberry, 
Grand Lake, Klondike, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, 
Rutherford Beach, De Quincy, Moss Bluff, Sulphur, Westlake, 
Vinton, Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Fenton, Welsh, Elton, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Iota, Gueydan, Meaux, Kaplan, 
Maurice, New Iberia, Jeanerette, Morgan City, Centerville, 
Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, Lake Charles, Carlyss,
Bell City, Hayes, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Morse, Abbeville, 
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Avery Island, Burns Point, 
Cypremort Point, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, 
Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, 
Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, 
Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, 
Buna, Evadale, Deweyville, Beaumont, China, Mauriceville, 
Nederland, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sabine Pass, Orange, 
Bridge City, and Vidor
245 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph into the
  evening then West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on
  Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

773 
WWUS74 KLCH 090833
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
233 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-091645-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240110T0000Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Fort Johnson, Pickering, Leesville, 
Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, 
Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields,
Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, 
Cade, St. Martinville, Stephensville, Johnson Bayou, Hackberry, 
Grand Lake, Klondike, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, 
Rutherford Beach, De Quincy, Moss Bluff, Sulphur, Westlake, 
Vinton, Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Fenton, Welsh, Elton, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Iota, Gueydan, Meaux, Kaplan, 
Maurice, New Iberia, Jeanerette, Morgan City, Centerville, 
Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, Lake Charles, Carlyss,
Bell City, Hayes, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Morse, Abbeville, 
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Avery Island, Burns Point, 
Cypremort Point, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, 
Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, 
Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, 
Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, 
Buna, Evadale, Deweyville, Beaumont, China, Mauriceville, 
Nederland, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sabine Pass, Orange, 
Bridge City, and Vidor
233 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

830 
WWUS74 KLCH 092131
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
331 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-100000-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240110T0000Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Fort Johnson, Pickering, Leesville, 
Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, 
Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields,
Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, 
Cade, St. Martinville, Stephensville, Johnson Bayou, Hackberry, 
Grand Lake, Klondike, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, 
Rutherford Beach, De Quincy, Moss Bluff, Sulphur, Westlake, 
Vinton, Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Fenton, Welsh, Elton, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Iota, Gueydan, Meaux, Kaplan, 
Maurice, New Iberia, Jeanerette, Morgan City, Centerville, 
Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, Lake Charles, Carlyss,
Bell City, Hayes, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Morse, Abbeville, 
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Avery Island, Burns Point, 
Cypremort Point, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, 
Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, 
Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, 
Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, 
Buna, Evadale, Deweyville, Beaumont, China, Mauriceville, 
Nederland, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sabine Pass, Orange, 
Bridge City, and Vidor
331 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

581 
WWUS74 KLCH 100000
NPWLCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254-
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-100100-
/O.EXP.KLCH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240110T0000Z/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-
Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Upper Iberia-Upper St. Mary-
Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-
Lower Vermilion-Lower Iberia-Lower St. Mary-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Fort Johnson, Pickering, Leesville, 
Slagle, Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, 
Cottonport, Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields,
Oretta, Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge, 
Cade, St. Martinville, Stephensville, Johnson Bayou, Hackberry, 
Grand Lake, Klondike, Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, 
Rutherford Beach, De Quincy, Moss Bluff, Sulphur, Westlake, 
Vinton, Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Fenton, Welsh, Elton, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Iota, Gueydan, Meaux, Kaplan, 
Maurice, New Iberia, Jeanerette, Morgan City, Centerville, 
Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista, Lake Charles, Carlyss,
Bell City, Hayes, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Morse, Abbeville, 
Intracoastal City, Forked Island, Avery Island, Burns Point, 
Cypremort Point, Town Bluff, Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, 
Warren, Woodville, Lumberton, Silsbee, Holly Springs, Jasper, 
Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, 
Farrsville, Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, 
Buna, Evadale, Deweyville, Beaumont, China, Mauriceville, 
Nederland, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sabine Pass, Orange, 
Bridge City, and Vidor
600 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1153 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

As expected low clouds and patchy fog is lifting and the remainder
of the day should see fair conditions. No changes at this time.
Storm system still on schedule for Monday, will update the details
and any hazards with the afternoon package.

Rua

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

Another quiet but chilly night underway with surface high
pressure centered across eastern TX into LA. IR satellite imagery
shows cirrus streaming across SE TX and southern LA, while winds
at the surface are pretty much calm areawide. Clouds have been
thin enough to allow sufficient radiational conditions to develop,
and with residual moisture near the surface, fog has been
developing across the area. At this point, dense fog has been
intermittent and isolated, but will continue to monitor for
possible advisory should it become more prevalent. The radiational
conditions have also allowed temperatures at a few locations
across our northern zones to fall to near freezing, with middle
30s to lower 40s noted across most of the area. Some patchy frost
or freezing fog could be possible in areas where temperatures
settle near freezing.

Aloft, mainly zonal flow is noted over the region, while an
active subtropical jet continues to bring moisture across Mexico
into the NW Gulf per recent UA analysis and WV imagery. There are
two features of note in the upper pattern, one a shortwave
pivoting across the central US and another trough beginning to
dig over the western CONUS. This latter feature will be the one
to watch as it is expected to strengthen through Monday, and could
bring severe weather and heavy rainfall to the region.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

Outside of patchy to areas of fog this morning, today should be
rather pleasant and somewhat cool. Surface high pressure will
transit east, with winds becoming easterly. Skies will be partly
cloudy with mainly cirrus streaming overhead. Temperatures should
rebound back to near 60 degrees this afternoon.

By tonight, the trough over the western US will continue to deepen
and it moves toward the southern Rockies, closing into a low as it
moves over NM. Flow aloft will become increasing southwest while
a LLJ strengthens across TX as low pressure in the lower levels
forms and deepens over the southern plains. This will bring a
rapid increase in moisture to the area, with PWATs climbing from
around 0.3 inches to near an inch by Monday morning.

The large and robust low aloft will continue to strengthen as it
moves over the southern plains Monday. Broad diffluent flow in
advance of the system will yield an increase in cloud cover as
well as a few showers and storms by late tonight into early Monday
morning. Convection will continue to increase across the region as
the system moves east in concert with its strengthening surface
low feature. Guidance continues to show a secondary low forming
across SE TX Monday afternoon that will lift NE toward N LA during
the afternoon into the evening.

Several factors are coming together that could make this a fairly
significant storm for the area on Monday. First, the airmass will
acquire unusually high moisture content, with precipitable water
levels climbing to near max values for this time of year (1.4-1.7
inches). Strong low level convergence and broad diffluence aloft
will support strong ascent, with sufficient instability and shear
to support organized convection. Activity will develop early in
the day and become more widespread through the afternoon. Heavy
rainfall and high rainfall rates are expected, while localized
cell mergers and potential training of storms could result in
localized areas of flooding, especially in urban or low lying
region. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches will be
possible, but locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out. The
biggest impact is expected across portions of S Central LA, where
WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall outlook this morning to
Moderate. Given the increased risk for excessive rainfall and
recent rains improving soil moisture content, a Flood Watch has
been issued across our S Central LA parishes. Elsewhere, a Slight
risk remains across the rest of our LA parishes with a Marginal
across SE TX.

Secondly, strong low and mid level jets will combine to produce
strong deep layer shear over the region. HREF guidance show low
level helicity values exceeding 400 m2/s2, and potentially
approaching 1000 m2/s2 in the sfc to 3 KM layer. Warm and moist
advection in the prefrontal airmass will provide additional
buoyancy, with an elevated ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Mid level
lapse rates will also be modestly steep (~6.5-7.5 C/km). The
combination of these factors will support some strong rotating
updrafts within convection, with discrete supercells possible by
midday Monday into the afternoon, followed by a squall line during
the evening. Storms could produce all modes of severe weather,
with the highest probabilities for damaging wind gusts and hail.
The main limiting factor will be a moist and near stable surface
layer, which could potentially inhibit surface based convection.
SPC has maintained a SLGT risk for severe weather across the area
for Monday.

Additional hazards with this system will be the strong
gradient winds, given the anomalously deep nature of the low
system. A Wind Advisory is already in effect for Monday as
sustained speeds of 20 to 30 MPH can be expected, with gusts as
high as 45 MPH at times along the I-10 corridor. Winds are
expected to diminish briefly Monday evening with the passage of
the front, but will strengthen again by early Tuesday with similar
speeds and gusts expected on strong westerly winds.

In the wake of the front, strong cold air advection will develop
with highs on Tuesday reaching the lower to middle 50s. Winds will
begin tapering off Tuesday evening, and under clear skies,
temperatures are expected to fall possibly as low as the upper 20s
across our northern zones with lower to middle 30s further south.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

The long term portion of the forecast period looks to begin on the
quiet side with a rain-free Wednesday on tap thanks to an initially
dry nwrly mid/upper-level flow behind Monday's storm system while
sfc high pressure gradually slides past the region. The area will
begin moistening during the day however as the next shortwave
upstream will be approaching, turning the flow aloft more swrly and
opening up the Gulf. Meanwhile, return flow behind the passing sfc
high will help increase low-level moisture as well. But the lack of
any significant focus as well as lingering capping will keep rain
chances out of the forecast through at least Wednesday night.

Slim rain chances return to the forecast for Thursday, particularly
during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings indicate moisture
will have risen to sufficient levels with mean RH values exceeding
50 percent and PWAT values exceeding an inch, while capping will
have largely dissipated and deterministic models indicate a
convergence axis/warm front will gradually push inland. Rain chances
then further increase during the evening/overnight hours as lift
increases ahead of the approaching shortwave, which is also progged
to help spin up/deepen a sfc low over TX. Forecast soundings also
show sufficient instability/lapse rates/CAPE for scattered storms
mainly beginning Thursday night after sfc dewpoints push into the
lower 60s behind the front.

Friday will see rain chances peak although a good diffluent flow
aloft could lead to some efficient rain makers (although forecasted
mean QPF values aren't overly impressive at the moment). The last
day of the work week also looks very windy with the
approach/deepening of the sfc low significantly tightening the
gradient...and advisory conditions look like a good bet at the
moment.

Once the trof axis/sfc low/attendant cold front swing through
the forecast area on Friday, precip should gradually end from west
to east with maybe a few straggling showers left over the
Atchafalaya Basin during the early evening hours. In its place will
be drier but much cooler conditions as good low-level CAA develops
with an Arctic airmass gradually settling over the region. After a
few days of highs pushing 70F and lows in the 50s, Friday night lows
are forecast to range from the upper 20s nrn 1/2 of the area to the
mid 30s near the immediate coast. A hard freeze looks possible for
the usual cold-prone nrn-most locations, while apparent temps could
briefly touch the high teens across the nrn tier of zones.

Saturday should see clearing and breezy conditions with highs being
limited to the lower 50s.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

VFR conditions with just high clouds and east winds less than 10
knots through the afternoon into the evening. Conditions will
start to go down hill overnight and further deteriorate on Monday.
First will be the increase in wind speeds from the east and
southeast with gusts up to 30 knots with some low level wind
shear possible. Showers and storms will increase toward the end
of the period by late Monday morning.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

...A Period of Hazardous Marine Conditions Expected Monday Through
Tuesday...

Light to moderate offshore flow become more east to
southeast through tonight, and quickly strengthen as strong low
pressure forms over the southern plains. This system will sweep
east across the area on Monday, accompanied by widespread showers
and storms, some of which could be strong.

Winds will shift southerly then southwesterly as the front moves
through. Winds will then shift westerly by Tuesday, strengthening
further as the strong low pressure system shifts east of the area.
Small Craft Advisories will be in effect beginning this evening. A
Gale Watch remains in effect for Monday into Tuesday and this will
likely be upgraded later today as sustained winds of 30 to 40 KT
are expected.

In addition, the strong onshore fetch could produce a brief
period of coastal flooding on Monday. Latest P-ETSS guidance is
not quite as aggressive as it was yesterday, with potential peak tide
values currently less then 1.5 FT MHHW. Elevated water levels are
certainly likely, although the duration during which these
elevated values could occur will be brief. Once the front passes
through the region, strong northwest winds will evacuate water
from the coastal waterways, likely resulting a period of
abnormally low water levels by early Tuesday morning. Water levels
could fall to roughly -1.0 FT MLLW around the time of low tide
both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Winds will subside by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with onshore
flow returning by midweek.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  38  65  37 /   0  10 100  90
LCH  59  46  69  42 /   0  10 100  80
LFT  61  47  70  47 /   0  10 100 100
BPT  61  49  72  43 /   0  10 100  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM CST Monday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     LAZ044-045-055-153-154-253-254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for
     GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ435-436-455-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07