Tornado Warning 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

924 
WWUS54 KLCH 111733
SVSLCH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

TXC457-111743-
/O.CAN.KLCH.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240211T1745Z/
Tyler TX-
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lake Charles.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 9456 3105 9454 3106 9453 3104 9450
      3105 9449 3103 9448 3103 9445 3100 9445
      3100 9444 3096 9442 3088 9463 3100 9466
      3101 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 240DEG 30KT 3103 9450 

$$

Stigger/87

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1117 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Made a quick update to hourly grids to align with recent obs and
expected trends today. Inserted mention for severe storms in
weather grids for areas north of the Highway 190 corridor given
the recent upgrade to Enhanced per SPC's Day 1 outlook. A couple
of severe storms are currently near our far NW zones (mainly Tyler
Co), and these have had a history of producing large hail and
funnel clouds.

24

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

What a start to the shift! Within the first hour, the marine dense
fog advisory was extended and that was followed up by a Tornado
Watch for our southeast Texas counties north of I-10. All before
my first coffee of the day!

Will be keeping an eye on the broken line of storms to the west of
the area as it moves into our CWA over the next few hours. Some of
these storms are already showing tornadic potential, and this will
persist as they continue to develop in an increasingly favorable
warm sector airmass.

Additionally, localized to areas of dense marine fog will likely
persist within 20 NM of the coast as the warm and moist airmass
advects over relatively cool shelf waters. Fog will linger until
passage of the cold front later tonight.

Updates were made to the grids to reflect the above changes, and
text products have been issued. Now for that coffee!

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

A warm front roughly bisects the area this morning with showers
and storms along the boundary. This front stretches back to a low
that is over the western fringe of the Texas Hill Country.
Locally, a warm and moist air mass is riding over the cooler near
shore waters with sea fog developing and moving inland. North of
the boundary temps are around 10 degrees cooler. Storms along the
boundary have occasionally produced a few lightning strikes with
the low instability and lack of good upper support. Aloft an upper
low is over NM with a line of strong storms ahead of the
disturbance in central and North Texas.

This morning the weak warm front will continue to slowly lift
north. Showers and storms are expected to continue along the
boundary as this occurs. South of the front, patchy drizzle and
light showers will occur along with sea fog at the coast. While
organized severe weather is not anticipated this morning an
isolated strong storm can not be ruled out along the warm front.

By the middle of the day the front will lift north of the area as
the aforementioned Hill Country surface low draws closer. Diurnal
heating will allow for extra instability which may allow a few
more showers south of the boundary. During the afternoon the
surface low will move across East Texas and into Central
Louisiana. The associated cold front will swing through the region
late afternoon and early evening. A few strong to perhaps severe
storms may occur as a broken line moves through.

Rain chances decrease early in the evening as a cooler and drier
air mass filters in for Lundi Gras. Windy conditions can be
expected Monday and a wind adv will likely be needed.

Winds will decrease into Mardi Gras as high pressure settles in.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Forecast for the long range period continues to look generally
benign until the end of the week and into weekend.  Underneath a
flat, westerly flow aloft, high pressure at the surface will be
shifting off to the east by WED.  Return southerly flow will result
in a little more in the way of cloud cover, along with warmer
temperatures as highs climb into the mid/upper 60s.  This WAA regime
will continue into THU, with highs forecast to reach the lower 70s.

Flow aloft transitions to a more SW direction heading into THU night
with the approach of an upstream upper trof.  While there continue
to be some differences to contend with, general consensus among
global models and their respective ensembles is for a SFC low to
develop over Deep South TX by FRI morning, with subsequent ENE
movement near/just offshore the TX/LA coasts FRI into SAT. This will
yield widespread rains across the area, beginning as early as late
THU night and persisting into SAT. Pending the eventual track of the
SFC low and location of greatest forcing for ascent, some locally
heavy rains are possible given PWATs progged to exceed the 90th
percentile. The arrival of drier air and waning lift as the upper
trof axis traverses the area will result in rains ending SAT night.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

IFR to MVFR cigs should improve some through the afternoon.
Convection will continue to develop and move east, with the best
potential at the AEX terminal. Southerly winds will shift westerly
with the passage of a cold front this evening with IFR stratus
anticipated behind the boundary. Cigs should improve toward the
end of the TAF period.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Warm and moist southerly winds will continue today. This will
contribute to the formation of fog over the coastal waters, with
localized to areas of dense fog possible. Periods of dense fog
will persist until passage of a cold front this evening into
early Monday. Behind the front, strong offshore flow will develop,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Winds will begin
to relax by Tuesday as high pressure settles overhead. Winds will
become more easterly by midweek as the surface high moves east.

24/05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  44  55  33 /  90  80  10   0
LCH  73  45  57  38 /  30  40   0   0
LFT  78  51  60  39 /  30  50  10   0
BPT  76  44  61  39 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436-
     450-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Monday night for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24