Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1132 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

Fog has lifted enough with improving visibilities that the Dense
Fog Advisory that was extended to 10 am has now been allowed to
expire. Remaining stratus deck is pretty shallow when looking at
this morning's sounding. So it is expected to break up enough this
afternoon to allow enough sunshine in that afternoon high
temperatures are still in the ball park.

Will be looking at the possibility of a return of low clouds and
fog for tonight with the afternoon package and also see what the
latest trends are for the Monday/Monday night storm system.

Rua

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a broad cyclonic pattern
across the CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The
first of these is noted over the eastern US, which brought the
widespread rain and storms to the area on Friday. Another is seen
upstream over the southern Rockies, while a third system is
approaching the Pac NW. Drier air has spread over the region in
the wake of the first system, and clouds have been clearing
portions of SE TX and SW LA early this morning per recent GOES
Nighttime Microphysics imagery.

At the surface, low pressure is situated across S AL and the FL
panhandle, with a cold front extending south into the Gulf.
Surface high pressure in the wake of this front is centered over
TX, ridging into LA and providing a light NW winds. Temperatures
across the region range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. As skies
clear and winds continue to lighten, patchy fog is beginning to
develop, and there is the potential for fog to become dense in
isolated spots.

While a dry and cool weekend is expected, another potent storm
system is expected to affect the region as the work week gets
underway, with heavy rainfall and severe weather possible for
Monday.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 326 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

Relatively quiet weather is expected through the weekend. Zonal
flow will continue aloft, with another southern stream shortwave
trough progressing east across TX late today into tonight. The
airmass will be too dry to support any precip with this system,
but an increase in high clouds can be expected. This will also
help shift the surface high over TX east tonight, becoming
centered overhead. With winds becoming light to near calm, patchy
fog will again be possible across the region, although cloud cover
could mitigate overall coverage and density. In addition to fog,
some patchy frost will also be possible, mainly across the
northern tier of parishes and counties, where overnight lows are
expected to fall into the lower 30s.

Under decreasing clouds today, temperatures will remain cool, with
highs in the middle 50s to around 60. A chilly night will be on
tap tonight, with lows ranging from the aforementioned lower 30s
to around 40 along and south of I-10. As the surface slides east
on Sunday, a modest warming trend will develop, with highs around
60 areawide under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. By Sunday
night, moisture will begin to increase across the area as flow
aloft becomes southwesterly in response to a deepening trough over
the southern Rockies. This will also generate surface low pressure
over the southern plains, with easterly winds expected to begin
strengthening overnight Sunday night.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

By Monday morning we will see showers and storms increase across our
area ahead of a strong upper level low. As the low cuts across the
plains, we will see a cold front sweep through. At the beginning of
the long term, the system will be centered over NM and advancing
into TX / OK. At the surface, a deepening low will advance eastward
towards us. This in conjunction with a departing high off to our east
will create a tight pressure gradient, which in turn will allow for
warm and moist air to advect into the region. Sustained winds later
in the day will increase out of the south near 25 to 30 MPH with
higher gusts likely. Temperatures will see a near 10 degree jump
while dewpoints rise from the low 40s on Sunday to the upper 50s ~
lower 60s by Monday. PWATs will surge to around 1.5 (higher than the
90th percentile) opening us up to the probability of seeing heavy
rainfall / higher rainfall rates. As a result the CWA is in a
Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall, with the Slight
Risk encompassing most S CenLA and east. QPF totals range from 1
to 3 inches, with higher totals likely. As the surface low
encroaches on the CWA, we will see an increase in surface based
instability and low level wind shear. All modes of severe weather
will be likely with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes being the
primary threats. SPC continues to highlight much of our CWA in a
slight risk area for severe storms.

Post front we will see a few days of cooler and drier weather in the
middle of the work week. Going into early Tuesday, strong westerly
to northwesterly winds will prevail for most of the day before
weakening into Wednesday as a high pressure builds into the region.
Upper level flow for that period of time will be out of the NNW
before shifting more out of the WSW. At the surface, the high
pressure will move east across the gulf, centering itself over the
FL peninsula by late Wednesday, with southerly flow returning. We
will see another uptick, in temperatures and dewpoints, then a
return of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Thursday. Thursday
into Friday, another upper level low will deepen as it descends
south into the southern plains. This will send another cold front
through late in the work week to early weekend. While this system at
present does not seem to be as potent as Mondays, it will bear
watching.

Temperatures Monday will reach into the mid 60s to lower 70s pre
front, with post frontal highs on Tuesday in the 50s before warming
up day by day to the mid 60s to lower 70s once again through late in
the work week. Lows will also take a swing, with Tuesday morning
lows getting into the 30s to 40s, then 20s to 30s thanks to cooler
air advecting in and little to no cloud cover on Wednesday morning.
The consecutive nights will see a warming trend ensue until the
next front near the end of the long term.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

Headache for the TAFs this morning as low clouds and fog below the
old frontal inversion have been slow to clear at a majority of the
terminals. Latest visible satellite pictures show more thinning
and breaks in the overcast, therefore, with some more solar
heating, ceilings should be able to rise and scatter out to MVFR
and even VFR during the afternoon hours.

Again tonight the main issue will be low cloud and fog development
with light winds, mainly clear skies, and residual wet grounds/low
level moisture. It looks like for tonight, the KLCH and KBPT
terminals will have the higher probability of seeing IFR to LIFR
conditions after 07/06z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

Light to moderate offshore flow will continue through the weekend
as surface high pressure builds east across the region. Winds will
shift east to southeast by Sunday night, and quickly strengthen as
strong low pressure forms over the southern plains. This system
will sweep east across the area on Monday, accompanied by
widespread showers and storms, some of which could be strong.

Winds will shift southerly then southwesterly as the front moves
through. Winds will then shift westerly by Tuesday, strengthening
further as the strong low pressure system moves east of the area.
Small Craft Advisories are expected to be required from Sunday
night through at least Tuesday, with Gale Watches or Warnings not
out of the question. In addition, strong onshore flow could
produce a brief period of coastal flooding on Monday. As winds
shift more north to northwest in the wake of the system, water
will be pushed out of coastal waterways, likely resulting a period
of abnormally low water levels by early Tuesday morning.

Winds will subside by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with onshore
flow returning by midweek.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  34  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  57  39  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  61  41  61  47 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  62  40  61  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...07