Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
538 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

At the surface, low pressure is near the Ark-La-Tex with a cold
front extending to the SW, west of Houston. Aloft, a powerful
midlevel shortwave trough is noted over north TX in water vapor
imagery. Severe storms are beginning to consolidate over our SE TX
counties at this time ahead of these features within a very warm
and moist atmosphere, which, timing wise, is well in line with
CAMs guidance over the last several hours. Showers and storms will
continue to push east through the evening into the early part of
the overnight period, eventually exiting lower Acadiana prior to
midnight. Until then, all modes of severe weather will be possible
as these storms consolidate into a QLCS and move east through the
forecast area. A PDS Tornado Watch remains in affect through 9PM
for the entire forecast area apart from lower Acadiana, with those
few parishes expected to be included in another Tor Watch that
will be issued later this evening. In addition to tornadoes, these
storms will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and torrential rainfall that could lead to flooding.
Although many part of south LA have seen little weather today, it
is imperative to not let your guard down through the next several
hours as conditions will deteriorate quickly very soon.

Once this weather clears the forecast area tonight, winds will
gradually shift NW behind the cold front. However, little in the
way of cooler/drier air is expected post-frontal passage, with
dewpoints only "bottoming out" in the low to mid 50s tomorrow
morning. Therefore, it does look like we will see another round
of fog tonight/early tomorrow morning. Fortunately, the potential
for widespread dense fog look minimal, but patchy areas of fog may
be an issue Sun morning.

Tomorrow into Monday weak surface high pressure slides overhead,
with winds turning back to the SW to S Sun night. Otherwise,
rather benign but warm weather continues through Monday, with
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows fall into the
upper 40s to mid 50s both Sun and Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

The long term period will bring several days of dry and seasonal
conditions. Beginning on New Years Eve, a cold front will sweep
through the region early in the day, likely prior to sunrise,
shifting winds back to the north and advecting in a drier airmass
throughout the daytime hours. Highs will reach into mid to upper 60s
Tues afternoon, while dewpoints gradually fall into the low to mid
40s. Overnight, a secondary reinforcing cold front will quickly
sweep through the area, resulting in a chilly start to the new year
with lows falling in the the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed morning.

Wednesday into Thursday, post-frontal high pressure builds down out
of the Plains and settles overhead resulting in a couple of days of
dry and mild conditions. Mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s, and light north winds can be expected each day. By
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, high pressure begins to
depart to the east allowing winds to turn more easterly overhead.
This will bring a slightly increase in dewpoints Thurs night into
Fri, which will in turn increase overnight lows a bit. NBM is still
wanting to bring small POPs in Thurs night into early Fri however,
I'm still not convinced we will be nearly moist enough to squeeze
out any showers through this period. Fri night into early Sat,
another dry cold front sweeps through, effectively bringing an end
to any warming/moistening trend as we head into the weekend.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Storms have largely consolidated into a line segment are are
currently pushing through LCH/AEX and nearly LFT/ARA within the
next hour or so. Conditions will gradually improve across
BPT/LCH/AEX through the next couple of hours, while LFT/ARA will
be deteriorating. As we near midnight, storms will be out of here
but fog will become an issue. Areas of patchy fog will be be
possible from midnight through roughly sunrise, some of which may
be dense. Tomorrow, fog burns off around 14Z, giving way to VFR
conditions and light NW winds.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Showers and storms will begin to amplify over the western waters
through the next couple of hours, spreading east through the
evening and eventually exiting the eastern waters prior to
midnight. Winds and seas will be elevated this evening into
tonight, and will also be higher in and around any strong to
severe storms. Winds turn NW after the front and relax quickly,
before veering SW to S again by early Monday. Dry weather returns
overnight and continues through much of next week as a cold front
exits the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  51  67  48  72 /  90   0   0   0
LCH  53  70  52  72 /  80   0   0   0
LFT  56  70  52  73 /  80   0   0   0
BPT  54  72  53  74 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
540 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 SE Alexandria         31.25N 92.28W
12/28/2024                   Rapides            LA   Public

            Multiple reports received of trees down in
            the Ruby and Kolin communities.

&&

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
549 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Saint Landry            30.85N 92.26W
12/28/2024                   Evangeline         LA   Trained Spotter

            Received a report of possible tornado damage
            at the Cleco Plant in St. Landry.

&&

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
554 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SE Saint Landry       30.79N 92.18W
12/28/2024                   St. Landry         LA   Emergency Mngr

            Received reports of power lines and fences
            down in the Whiteville community.

&&

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
557 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Branch              30.34N 92.33W
12/28/2024                   Acadia             LA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Reports of power lines down in the vicinity
            of Providence and White Oak Highways near
            the Branch community.

&&

25

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
608 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Saint Landry      30.83N 92.20W
12/28/2024                   St. Landry         LA   Public

            Power Poles down possible tornado.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
612 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Branch              30.35N 92.33W
12/28/2024                   Acadia             LA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Power Line down.

&&