Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
104 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Updated the grids/zones to account for today's MCS du jour
tracking ssewd from nern TX/nwrn LA. Luckily radar/satellite
trends have been showing this feature on a gradual decaying trend
so keeping fingers crossed that any severe threat will be minimal.
Elsewhere, just minor tweaks were made to the forecast.

Update already out.
25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Active weather continues to dominate the majority of the short term
with the long range still remaining unsettled and wet. Today,
another round of scattered storms and showers will spread across the
northern tier counties and parishes before developing and spreading
further south. There does lie a degree of uncertainty of whether or
not outflows from the current MCS in the southern plains will
maintain continued propagations SSE across central LA. Earlier
forecast guidance suggested this feature would maintain toward the
lower Acadiana area, however, some recent discrepancies do bring
into question if low level stability may prevent a wider spread of
progression. Basis the latest satellite analysis and convective
behavior through the overnight hours in Oklahoma, the system is best
utilizing surface instability, albeit with weaker inversion layers
aloft. Thus, confidence remains developing storms from the north
into our CWA, however, the coverage and duration may continue to
adjust through the morning hours. This line of thinking currently
supports the latest guidance from the SPC and WPC illustrating a
marginal building into a slight risk toward the Northern portion of
the CWA for severe weather and excessive rainfall respectively.

As a large northern stream shortwave continues to shift east and
stall north of the Great Lakes region, a portion of the upper level
flow becomes cutoff over the Mississippi Valley. A localized region
of divergence aloft supports the development of another MCS type
features descending SE from the southern Plains with the strongest
signals for POPs generally east of TX. However, confidence many of
the CAM suites are low given their handling on the pattern during
the past couple days. That said, confidence does remain in this
upper level feature kicking off more thunderstorm development
Wednesday. While no elevated severe threat has been analyzed yet,
severe thunderstorms are not out of the question, in addition to the
marginal risk of excess rainfall- at this time. Upon the cutoff
upper-level portion of the shortwave shifting east over the FL
Peninsula into Thursday, signals for some form of organized
precipitation drop as broad ridging begins to warm the lower
troposphere inhibiting chances for showers/storms. Skies will also
have less cloud cover allowing temperatures to further warm into the
lower 90’s, perhaps brief mid 90’s for portions of SETX.

 Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

As mentioned, the long range is rather unsettled with deterministic
approaches showing a frontal boundary bowing south across the
southern Plains Friday. However, from blended approach, the relative
dry signal in the forecast trends into weekend with very warm
temperatures. That is not the case with a blended approach, however,
even this approach acknowledges some notable departures in the 10th
and 90th percentiles. Thus, chance of storms has been kept in the
forecast to reflect confidence in the precipitation not completely
departing from the map. A secondary frontal boundary develops later
in the weekend associated with the robust upper level low centered
of Michigan by Monday, indicating a few rounds of precipitation may
continue into early next week.

 Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Initialized KAEX with thunder as the approaching MCS crosses over
the next couple of hours...adjusted times accordingly for the
remaining terminals with highest threat at the Acadiana sites.
Thereafter, minimal changes to inherited TAFs with elevated srly
winds being the main issue the remainder of the afternoon, while
remaining elevated through the night at KBPT/KARA. Lower ceilings
again expected overnight per forecast soundings/time-height
sections before improving after sunrise.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Enhanced Southerlies will continue to remain over wrn/cntl
coastal waters as they are progged to remain enhanced through
this evening thanks to a tightening gradient courtesy of low
pressure moving into the Srn Plains.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  72  89  71 /  70  10  40  30
LCH  87  77  89  76 /  50  10  20  10
LFT  90  77  91  76 /  60  20  20  10
BPT  89  77  91  76 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25