Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

In the near term, expanded Severe Thunderstorm Watch #365 a small
ways to the east earlier after collaborating with SPC as ongoing
convection within the initially issued watch was moving eastward
out of the watch into an area that was also conducive to severe
potential. No change to the watch's expiration time.

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a trof/convergence boundary
sitting along roughly the I-10 corridor, otherwise high pressure
centered along the Carolina coast is remaining in control with
srly low-level flow in place. Water vapor imagery shows weak
troffing in place over the center of the country with a
significant shortwave dropping through it approaching the region
at this time. The combo of these features along with a very moist
airmass (12z KLCH sounding showed a PWAT near 1.8 inches which
forecast soundings indicate is likely higher this afternoon) has
led to another round of scattered/numerous showers/thunderstorms
which initiated near the coast over sern TX and have been
gradually spreading ewd (as lift spreads ahead of the wave) and
inland (via outflow development/collisions).

This convection is expected to linger into the evening hours
before sunset/loss of heating leads to a gradual dissipation.
Until then, the severe threat lingers (thus the going WW) while
the flash flooding threat, already present as noted in reports
received from sern TX, likely grows due to continued development
and slow storm movement. In response, WPC has upgraded the
forecast area to a slight risk for the remainder of today into
tonight.

Sunday looks fairly similar to today as another shortwave is
progged to push ewd across the region within a developing zonal
flow aloft behind the departing trof axis. Forecast soundings
indicate good moisture lingering (mean RHs around 80 percent and
PWATs nearing 2.0 inches which exceeds the 90th percentile per SPC
climo). With daytime heating/mesoscale impacts, expecting yet
another round of convection with elevated rain chances. SPC has
highlighted the swrn 2/3 of the forecast area in a marginal risk
for severe with damaging wind gusts being the main concern
(although recent days have shown that large hail will likely be
part of the equation again). Meanwhile, WPC has highlighted the
entire area again in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall...
while forecasted QPF values don't look menacing, the antecedent
wet conditions will allow for lesser rainfalls to create flooding
issues.

Monday should finally bring some dry weather as the nearly zonal
flow begins getting replaced by weak ridging aloft. Forecast
soundings indicate less capping and better moisture over the nern
zones...and with daytime heating being the primary driver, we
could see a few showers/storms during the afternoon across mainly
the Atchafalaya Basin/e-cntl LA.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long term begins Tuesday with ridging developing aloft in
response to a mid/upper-level low digging swd through the Desert
SW into nwrn Mexico...the resulting capping should keep convection
at bay across our region despite the continued good low-level
moisture. Wednesday currently looks like a repeat performance,.

Rain chances, albeit small, return to the forecast for Thursday
and Friday as the ridge begins breaking down in response to a
digging trof over the ern CONUS...the resultant weak capping
allowing for widely scattered convection to develop mainly over
our nern zones.

Temperatures are progged to start rather seasonal with daytime highs
around 90F, although warmer than normal mins are forecast with
readings all through the 70s. A slight warming trend is in the works
with highs in the lower/mid 90s by period's end...overnight lows
remain rather static.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

No real changes to going TAF thinking with scattered convection
expected through this afternoon, especially for the srn terminals,
before dying off with sunset. MVFR or lower ceilings are likely
again tonight with so much low-level moisture in place pooling
below a lowering inversion. Some light fog also looks probably,
especially where rain falls today. Conditions will improve after
sunrise Sunday.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

No headlines are anticipated on the CWF until Monday when a
tightening gradient on lowering pressures over the srn Plains lead
srly winds to increase to caution criteria.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

With the month of May, as well as the climatological Spring (March
through May), behind us, here's a quick recap of how the
warmth/wet of the seasons ranked within history.

AEX (records date to 1892)
5/27 high of 98 deg tied for 4th warmest May day
10th wettest Spring - 24.05" (record 32.85/1953)

ARA (records date to 1948)
3rd warmest May - 78.6 deg (record 79.0/2018)
8th warmest Spring - 71.0 deg (record 73.1/2012)

BPT (records date to 1901)
Tied 10th warmest May - 78.9 deg (record 81.1/1902)
5th wettest May - 14.75" (record 20.58/1923)
4th warmest Spring - 71.9 deg (record 72.6/2012)
5th wettest Spring - 25.18" (record 34.79/1914)

LCH (records date to 1895)
4th warmest May - 78.7 deg (record 79.9/2010)
3rd warmest Spring - 71.5 deg (record 73.0/2012)

LFT (records date to 1893)
3rd warmest May - 79.9 deg (record 80.0/2018)
2nd warmest Spring- 72.4 deg (record 72.7/2012)

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  88  71  90 /  40  40  30  20
LCH  72  88  76  88 /  30  50  20  10
LFT  73  88  75  91 /  50  60  30  10
BPT  74  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
329 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

LAZ031-012100-
Allen LA-
329 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH THROUGH 400
PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mittie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oakdale, Oberlin, Elizabeth, Mittie, Grant, Allen Parish Airport,
Harmony, and Bond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3072 9260 3066 9260 3057 9294 3064 9298
      3079 9298 3089 9274 3089 9272 3090 9272
      3090 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 243DEG 23KT 3067 9294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Denson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
347 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

LAZ033-045-012115-
St. Landry LA-Upper St. Martin LA-
347 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISHES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Atchafalaya Welcome Center, or 9 miles north of Catahoula, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Catahoula, Breaux Bridge, Henderson, Butte La Rose, Cecilia,
Atchafalaya Welcome Center, Atchafalaya National Wildlife Refuge, and
Parks.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 110 and
126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9179 3033 9197 3033 9196 3036 9195
      3036 9197 3037 9196 3050 9178 3038 9164
      3036 9165 3035 9162 3031 9162 3028 9159
      3026 9159 3025 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 253DEG 11KT 3034 9176

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Denson

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